Transcript As Perspectivas de Combustivies Liquidos Alternativos no Mundo

As Perspectivas de Combustíveis
Líquidos Alternativos no Mundo
Seminário “Perspectivas Energéticas para América Latina”
18 de Outubro de 2004 (UNICAMP)
Dr. Francisco Rosillo-Calle
Imperial College London
(University of London)
RESUMO
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O papel da indústria do automóvel
Mudanças/implicações
Os grandes desafios
Cenários- ER
Cenários – transporte
Combustíveis principais no mundo
Gasolina, diesel, sintéticos, gás natural, etanol,
biodiesel, metanol, biogás, bio-óleo, hidrogênio,
DME, ETBE, células combustíveis
The Role of the Automobile
Industry/O papel das Montadoras
• Changes in alternative renewable transport fuels
(RTFs) do not happen in a vacuum / As
mudanças no sistema de combustíveis
dependem de muitos fatores
• They are interrelated to the:
– Automobile industry/ A indústria do automóvel
– Developments in engine technology/Des.tec motores
– Development in fuel technology /Des. tec. de
combustíveis
– Availability and cost of fuels/ Disponibilidade e custos
de combustíveis
– Social, economic, political….. changes
O Papel/….
• WE drive on industrially manufactured
fuels. the tech is constantly improving
under constant socio-econimic and
enviromental pressures” / Nós usamos
combustíveis industriais. Esta tecnologia
muda constantemente, devido a pressões
sociais, ambientais e econômicas”
• Environ. advantages of RTFs is not always
sufficient
O Papel …
• The automobile industry is going through major
changes/Grandes mudanças no setor
• Global dominance by a few/ Domínio mundial
• Intensive competition/ Forte competição
• Low margins on benefits or losses/ Margem de
benefícios é muito pequena
• The industry has invested massively on oilbased fuels/ Investimento pesado na área dos
combustíveis fósseis
The top 10s/ As 10 primeiras em
2003
• GM
8.59 M units (185.5$B)
• Toyota
6.78
(153.1$B)
• Ford
6.54
(154.2$B)
• VW
5.02
(98.4$B)
• DaimerC
4.36
(171.9$B)
• PSA/Peugeot 3.29
(61.2$B)
• Hyundai
3.05
(38.9$B)
• Nissan
2.97
(65.8$B)
• Honda/
2.39
(42.4$B)
Renault
O Papel…
• The industry make 60 M cars & trucks/yr /Produz
60 M de veículos/ano
• In 1995 there were 600 M vehicles/ 600 M de
veículos em 1995
• In 2010 there may be one billion / Podem ser um
bilhão em 2010
• This posses major environmental problems/
Problema ambiental sério, com 0.5 M
mortes/ano de acordo com a OMS
Os 4 desafios principais
• The Fuel Challenge/ O desafio dos
combustíveis
• Urgent need to find environmentally cleaner
fuels (be fossil-based or RTFs)/ Necessidade de
usar combustíveis mais limpos
• At the moment there is not a clear winner/
• Which RTFs? Mais usual combustível?
• Which criteria to select them? Que critério?
• Most promising –ethanol, biodiesel, synthetic
fuels (fossil and biomass)/ Mais promissor
• Hydrogen, fuel cells… longer term alternatives
O DESAFIOS...
• The engineering challenge/ Desafio da engenharia
• The IC engine has dominated the transportation
systems/ Domínio do motor CI
• Urgent need to developed a more environmentally
friendly engine/ propulsions systems/ Necessidade de
desenvolver novos sistemas para proteger melhor o
meio ambiente
• IC will dominate next two decades/ O motor CI vai
continuar a dominação nas próximas duas décadas
– Promising innovation is the flex-fuel
• New propulsion systems (hydrogen) still require
considerable RD&D/ Novos sistemas de propulsão vão
demorar ainda muitos anos
OS DESAFIOS…
• Environ. & Health Challenge/ Os desafios
ambientais e de saúde
• Transport is responsible c30% CO2
• Stringent environmental legislation/Maior
controle ambiental
• Partial solutions/ Algumas soluções parciais:
• Menos carros
– Improve the ICE/ Melhorar a eficiência
– Use cleaner fuels (ethanol, biodiesel, synthetic (fossil
or biomass based)
– Utilizar combustíveis menos poluentes
OS DESAFIOS….
• Structural/Market challenge/ O desafio
das estruturas
• Some new fuels (e.g. hydrogen) require
expensive infrastructure
• Others (ethanol, biodiesel) don’t and this is
a major advantage
• Alguns dos combustíveis (o hidrogênio)
necessitam de estruturas muito caras
SCENARIOS
• Development of RE will affect new RTFs
• O desenvolvimento dos RTFs está supeditado
ao desenv. das ER
• RE can make a major contribution
• EREC scenarios*
– Robust support RE = 50% energy (2040)
– Significant support = 25%
– (EREC takes into account only tech dev in RE, and
not in conventional energy- ela só considera os
desenvolvimentos tecnológicos)
*Conselho Europeo das Energias Renováveis
Scenarios
World energy
consumption
MTOE
Biomass
Hydro L
Hydro S
Wind
PV
Solar T
Solar
2001 2010
2020
2030 2040
10,038 11,752 13,553 15,547 17,690
1080
223
9.5
4.7
0.2
4.1
0.1
1291
255
16
35
1
11
0.4
1653
281
34
167
15
41
2
2221
296
62
395
110
127
9
2843
308
91
584
445
274
29
Scenario, Cont..
Geother
43
Tidal…
0.05
73
0.1
131
0.4
194
261
2
9
Total RE 1364
1683
2324
3416
4844
% RE
14.3
17.1
22.0
27.4
13.6
Scenarios
• RE provides (exclud trad biomass &
hydro) 100 GW of grid connected electric
• Cumulative investment/ Inversões (19952003)= $85 B
• Wind/Eloica Power 40.3 GW (2003); 0.5%
world electricity; 2008 = 95GW
• Germany = 14.6 GW (2003)
• Spain = 6.4 GW
• USA = 6.34 GW
Scenarios Transporte
• Global estimates not quantified/O potencial
mundial não foi quantificado
• Studies focussed on tech rather than economics
or social/Estudos sobre a questão tecnológica
• Competition for other uses (electric, heat) makes
it difficult to determine the most effective use
• Outros usos da biomassa dificulta qual o melhor
uso energético
• Lack of an international market/ Falta de um
cartel internacional
Scenarios Transporte..
• Advanced Conversion tech
• Key R&DD areas/ Áreas princípais de P&D
– Conversion of cellulose to sugars
– Biomass conversion via gasification & thermal
chemical routes/ Gasificação, termo-química
converção
– (ethanol, methanol, DME, synthetic fuels,- can be
obtained from resulting gases)
– Pyrolysis to produce “bio-crude/bio-oleo”
Possible Fuel Chains
Possible UK-based renewable transport fuel chains
Resources
Conversion technology
End-fuel
End-use
Arable/Annual crops
Rape (Canola) seed
Bio-Oil
Wheat
Maize
Pressing/Esterification
Sugar Beet
Bio-Diesel
Potatoes
Herbaceous perennials
Internal combustion
engine vehicle
Hydrolysis/Fermentation
Miscanthus
Ethanol
Swithchgrass
Reed canary grass
Fuel cell vehicle
Pyrolysis
Woody perennials
Short rotation willow / poplar
Methanol
Pine / Spruce
DME
Residues & wastes
Gasification
Forestry residues
Bio-Methane
Straw
Digestion
Hydrogen
Municipal solid/liquid waste
Waste fats and oils
Battery vehicle
Combustion
Electricity
Non-Biomass Renewables
Hydro
Wind
Solar
Marine
Trains
Scenarios Transporte…
• Biofuel production (biocombustíveis) 120 BL (80
BL gasoline equiv) or 6% of world gasoline
(2020)
• Other = 10% and 3% of diesel (ethanol from
cane)
• 33-35% of gasoline (2050-2100)
– Produced mostly in DLG/ Produtores países pobres
– Consumed mostly in DVC/ Consumidores países
indústriais
COMBUSTÍVEIS PRINCIPAIS
• Gasoline & reformulated gasoline from
crude oil
• Diesel oil & reformulated diesel from crude
oil
• Synthetic fuels (from oil, coal, natural gas
and biomass)
• Natural gas
Combustíveis, cont..
• Methanol from natural gas, coal, or
cellulose material
• Ethanol from sugars/starches and
cellulose
• Biodiesel from oil-containing plants
• Hydrogen by electrolysis of water
• Dimethyl-ether (DME) from natural gas
Fuel cells (electric engines)
Production of Biomass Derived
End-Fuels (Transport)
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Biodiesel
Ethanol
Hydrogen
Bio-oil
Bio-gas
Methanol
DME
Electricity
Combustíveis, cont…
• ETBE based on bioethanol
• Biogas
• Bio-dimethyl ether based on biomass or
biodegradable waste/resíduos, lixo
Combustíveis, cont..
• The biofuels considered in the EU are:
• Biodiesel (from rapeseed/carola,
sunflower/girassol, etc)
• Bioethanol (sugar beet/beterraba, cereals, etc)
• ETBE (based on bioethanol)
• Biogas
• Biomethanol (based on biomass or
biodegradable waste)
• Biodimethylether (based on biomass or
biodegradable waste)
Combustiveis, cont…
• Gasoline/diesel- reformulated
• R&D on these fuels is gathering pace/
Incremento rápido em P&D
• These fuels quality is improving and will
develop, eventually, into even higher and
cleaner fuels/ Melhora da qualidade dos
combustíveis (gasolina e diesel)
• They would be able to compete with
biofuels on an environmental basis
Combustiveis, cont…
• Synthetic fuels/ Combustíveis sintéticos
• Synthetic fuels will become increasingly
important (alcohols, diesel and gasoline) Maior
importância no futuro
• South Africa has been producing them for many
years (oil, coal and natural gas)
– 40% of total supply
– New plants are coming on stream in USA, Malaysia
– This has implications for biofuels
Combustíveis, cont…
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Ethanol (bio) 2003
World 38+ Bl (13 countries/países)
Brazil 14.2 BL
USA 10.6 BL (circa)
EU c. 2.2 BL (incl. bioethanol-based ETBE+
Synthetic- incu ETBE a partir do álcool)
• Others, c.2 BL
• (Australia, Canada, Colombia, China, India,
Mexico, Peru, South Africa, Thailand, etc)
• 35 countries interested
Combustíveis, cont…
• Ethanol, cont.
• World/Mundo =60-70 BL in 2012; 120 BL in 2020
(c.10% transport fuels)
• Brazil 22 BL in 2012
• USA 20 BL (2012)
• EU 8-10 BL (2010)
• Canada 1.33 BL 2010)
• China 10 BL (2010?)
• India 1.5 BL
• LA/AL 3-5 BL (Peru 1.2 BL; Colombia, 1 BL..)
Combustíveis, cont…
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Methanol
Used in the past/ Utilizado como combustível
Produced mostly from natural gas
Used as a building block for many applications
Production 47.3 BL (2000)
It is suitable for gas turbines and IC
Best candidate for fuel cells/Muito promissor
para uso em células combustíveis
• Potential fuel demand 3.3 BL (2010)(American
Methanol Institute- www.methanol.org
Bio-methanol
Feedstocks
Crops (Lignocellulosic)
•Short Rotation Coppice
•Long Rotation Forestry
•Residues:
- Forestry
- Agricultural
Other
•Waste oils & fats?
Conversion Technology
Gasification and syngas
reformulation
End-Fuel
•Raw bio-oil
Pilot Demonstration:
• Oil stabilisation and use
Novel:
• Catalytic upgrading of oil
• New reactors and
continued development of
existing reactors
•Hydrogen
•Battery powered vehicles and electric trains
Electricity Production
Via turbine
(steam and / or ‘gas’)
Fuel Cell
Vehicle
IC Engine
•Stabilised bio-oil
•Upgraded bio-oil
End Use
Combustíveis, cont…
• Biodiesel
• Rapid increase in recent years/Aumento
rápido nos anos recentes
• EU = c2.5 BL (Germany= 1.3 BL)
• Can be obtained from many sources
• Many countries are considering biodiesel
• Brazil can be a world leader
– Programa de biodiesel
Combustíveis, cont…
• Bio-crude/bio-oleo
• Many potential applications/ Grande
potencial
• Niche applications/Aplicações especiais
• Unlikely use in transportation in large
scale/Uso em pequena escala
Combustíveis, cont…
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Biogas
Large experience in non-transport applications
Used in niche markets (urban transport)
Many experiments
Can use same infrastructure than natural gas
Pode utilizar a mesma estrutura que o gás N
Small-scale applications/Usos em pequena
escala
• Low calorific value/Baixo valor calorífico
Combustíveis, cont…
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Gás natural
Prime candidate for hydrogen/fuel cells
Clean fuel; increasing use
About 2 M vehicles worldwide (2004)
(CNG and LNG)
– 130,000 in the USA
(Natural Gas Vehicles Coalition)
Combustíveis, cont…
• Dimethyl ether (DME)
• Advantage: can be made from any
carbonaceous feedstock (N gas, coal, biomass)
using established technologies/DME pode-se
conseguir do gás N, carvão mineral, biomassa..
com tecnologias existentes
• Current global production= 150,000 t/y + 1.8 Mt
under construction
• Major interests:
– Russia- from N gas in Siberia
– China- from coal (cooking/cozinha, transport)
– Iran (0.8 Mt, export for LPG/GLP);
DME (Dimethyl Ether)
Feedstocks
Crops (Lignocellulosic)
• Short Rotation Coppice
• Long Rotation Forestry
• Residues:
- Forestry
- Agricultural
Conversion Technology
Advanced Gasification and
syngas reformulation
End-Fuel
Novel:
• Still in R&D stage
•DME as diesel
extender / modifier
Other
• Wastes (MSW)
Vehicle
Internal Combustion
Engine
End Use
Combustíveis, cont…
• Ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE)
• Made by reacting ethanol with natural gas and
petroleum derivatives to produce a cleanburning fuel additive/Produzido a partir da
reação de etanol com o GS, e outros derivados
do petróleo para a produção de um aditivo limpo
• ETBE is approx. 42% ethanol
• ETBE is favoured in the EU
• MTBE is facing difficulties
Combustíveis, cont…
• Hydrogen
• Considered as the ultimate fuel/ O mais
promissor para células combustíveis
• Hydrogen from ethanol
• Many problems
• Infrastructure
• 20 years away in large scale
Hydrogen
Feedstocks
Crops (Lignocellulosic)
• Short Rotation Coppice
• Long Rotation Forestry
• Residues:
- Forestry
- Agricultural
Other
• Renewable Electricity
• Wastes (MSW)
Conversion Technology
Gasification and syngas
reformulation
Electrolysis
End-Fuel
Pilot Demonstration:
• Fuel Cell Vehicles
• CHP systems
•Hydrogen
Novel:
• Infrastructure development
• ??
•Hydrogen
•Battery powered vehicles and electric trains
Electricity Production
Via turbine
(steam and / or ‘gas’)
Fuel Cell
Vehicle
Fuel Cell
End Use
Main References
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www.erec-renewables.org
www.biodiesel.at
www.methanol.org
www.economist.com/surveys/
Mainstreaming Renewable Energy in the 21stC,
Worldwatch Inst. Paper 169 (May 2004
• Sawin J L (2004) Thematic Background Paper 3, Int.
Conf. RE, Bonn, June 1-4
• Fulton L (2004) Biofuels for Transport- An International
Perspective, IEA
• Zervos A, Lins C, Schafer O (2004) Tomorrow’s World,
REW 7:4: 238-245
Finalmente…
• Não é fácil dar resposta a uma questão muito
complexa como é o futuro dos combustíveis no
setor do transporte.
• Muitos avanços técnicos são ainda necessários
e muitas mudanças sociais, políticas e
ambientais…
• No futuro os combustíveis podem ser muitos,
mas o petróleo vai dominar ainda por várias
décadas
• MUITO OBRIGADO PELA SUA ATENÇÃO!