Transcript Slide 1

Japan and Brazil Economic Outlook
Brazilian Development Prospects
XVII Joint Meeting of the Japan-Brazil Committee
September 9-10, 2014
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The world: times of catching up and increasing relevance of
developing nations
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8.7
8
Annual Growth Rates, %
7.5
5.5
6
4
3.9
2.7
3.1
2.5
2
1.4
0
Advanced Economies
Emerging Markets
-2
-3.4
-4
1980
Source: IMF, WEO
1984
1988
1992
Avg Growth
Advanced Economies
Emerging Markets
1996
2000
2008-2008
2,4
6,5
2004
2008
2012
2016
2009-2014 2009-2018
1,0
1,6
5,2
5,3
2
Brazil, macroeconomic fundamentals
Consolidated Public Sector Net Debt (as % of GDP)
Gross Debt
International Reserves (US$ billion)
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Brasil: Macroeconomic fundamentals (2)
CPI Inflation (IPCA index, % YoY)
Current account results, % GDP
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013; IBGE
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Brazil: Economic and Social Progress
Job creation
Income classes, millions of people
Source: Ministry of Finance
*CAGED: 2013. 2014
**12 months up to feb 14
Formal employment and unemployment rates
Brazil vs USA and Europe, unemployment rate,
desazonalised, %
Source: BCB
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Economic and social progress (2)
Poverty and inequality trends
GDP per capita, R$ thousand - 2013 prices
Public investments in education (% of GDP)
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Attractive and expanding internal market
Airline industry, in million passengers
120
115
904
950
900
100
850
80
60
Total cargo holding in ports, in million tons
800
750
48
700
40
650
600
20
550
0
529
500
Thousand vehicles per km on highways under
concession
New vehicles (buses, trucks, light commercial
vehicles and cars), in million
105.5
120
4.0
3.5
100
3.0
80
60
40
56.5
2.5
2.0
1.79
1.5
1.0
20
0
0.5
0.0
Sources: National Agency for Civil Aviation (ANAC), National Agency for Aquatic Transportation (ANTAQ), Brazilian Association of Highway Concessionaires (ABCR) and Brasilian Association of
Automative Vehicle Manufactures (ANFAVEA).
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3.80
Brazil: potential of agriculture, oil and exports
IMF EXPORT GROWTH PROJECTIONS
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Brazil: investments forecast 2014-2017
SECTORS
2014Q1 US$bi
2009-12 2014-17
Accumulated Growth rate (linear
% Variation
avg; % per year)
INDUSTRY
372
488
31.1
5.6
INFRASTRUCTURE
181
243
34.4
6.1
300
HOUSING
300
366
21.9
4.0
AGRICULTURE & SERVICES
488
624
28.1
5.1
1,341
1,721
28.4
5.1
TOTAL
Source: BNDES
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Brazil: investments forecast for industry, 2014-2017
2014 Q1 US$ billion
INDUSTRY
Oil & Gas
Mining
Automotive
Paper & Pulp
Chemical
Steel
Electronics
Health
Aircraft
Other Industries
2009-12
2014-17
372
134
21
19
8
9
16
9
4
1
150
488
206
23
31
11
11
7
10
5
6
177
Acc. %
change
31
53
9
63
41
25
57
13
26
294
18
Growth rate
(linear avg; %
per year)
5.6
8.9
1.7
10.2
7.1
4.5
15.6
2.4
4.7
31.6
3.4
Source: BNDES
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Brazil: investments forecast for infrastructure, 2014-2017
2014 Q1 US$ billion
2009-12 2014-17
Acc.%
change
Growth rate
(linear avg; %
per year)
INFRASTRUCTURE
181
243
34
6.1
Electricity
Telecommunications
Social Infrastructure
Highways
Railways
Ports
Airports
75
40
21
23
12
7
81
52
38
27
24
17
9
29
82
14
96
166
1.7
5.2
12.7
2.7
14.4
21.6
3
4
46
7.9
Source: BNDES
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Ongoing program of infrastructure-related concessions
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BNDES
BNDES– highlights and comparison with peers
2012 (in US$ billion)
2/3 of long term loans in Brazil
100% State owned
Stable institutional funding
Instruments
Direct Operations
Indirect Operations
MSME (financing and
guarantee)
Exports (Pre and Post
shipment)
Project finance
Grants
Investment bank
Source: BNDES
BNDES
KFW
CDB
JFC
Assets
367.8
657.3
1,191.6
318.4
Outstanding
Loans
254.0
526.4
1,016.9
272.4
3.0
3.1
9.9
-3.6
ROA (%)
0.90
0.47
0.92
-1.13
NPL (%)
0.06
0.21
0.30
2.98
Net Profit
Source: Banks' balance sheets.
Equity Portfolio
Estimated market value (US $ b.)
Nº firms with direct support
Nº Investment Funds
45.4
203
44
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BNDES’ contribution to Brazilian development (1)
*12 months, up to February/2014
to 2013
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BNDES’ contribution to Brazilian development (2)
Support for MSME: disbursements + number of firms
32
350
300
23
250
11
150
261
275
12
172
25,0
15,0
104
41
53
2007
2008
45,0
35,0
8
50
0
55,0
25
231
200
100
25
65,0
5,0
2009
Number of MSME, 1,000
2010
2011
2012
Disbursements, US$ billion)
2013
-5,0
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Main takeaways
Economic and social inclusion will generate opportunities to rise the consumption
of goods and services and expand the housing industry.
Expanding ongoing infrastructures (telecom, energy and logistics) will induce
systemic productivity, improve standards of living and increase demand for
suppliers of goods and services.
Oil and gas will be a relevant source of foreign revenue and vast opportunities for
the supply industry.
Due to its consolidated competitiveness, the current export base (mineral and
agricultural commodities) will continue to offer investment opportunities.
Industry and services in Brazil still require higher investment in capabilities and
innovation to induce international competitiveness.
The real economy provides vast opportunities for private financial industry to
enter into long-term financing.
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Japan and Brazil Economic Outlook
Brazilian Development Prospects
XVII Joint Meeting of the Japan-Brazil Committee
September 9-10, 2014
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