Transcript グリー•エイド•プランのレビュー、 今後の日中協力

グリー•エイド•プランのレビュー
と今後の日中協力の展望
Review of Japan’s Green Aid Plan (GAP)
and
Outlook on Japan-China Cooperation
Stephanie B. Ohshita, University of San Francisco
[email protected]
Int’l Framework to Promote Chinese Energy Efficiency
CRIEPI Workshop, 29 July 2004, Tokyo
What can GAP tell us about Japan-China
energy/environment cooperation?
1. GAP diffusion problems with model projects highlight
need for capacity building and policy cooperation.
2. Stalemate over GAP and CDM supports the idea of
having separate yet complementary cooperation at
the policy/program level (energy efficiency) and the
technology project level (CDM or GAP projects).
3. GAP and other int’l experience shows importance of
developing strong Chinese domestic incentives and
policy implementation mechanisms.
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S.B.Ohshita, USF
Overview
GAP in China in the 1990s
Goals, Players, Structure
Context of Other Cooperation
Analysis of Performance
GAP since 2000
Energy Efficiency Results
Shift to Training, Management
GAP & CDM Stalemate
Future Outlook on GAP & CDM
Future Cooperation Strategies
on Energy Efficiency
Conclusion
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S.B.Ohshita, USF
GAP Goals and Components in the 1990s :
Demonstration but no diffusion
Goals
 Goal 1. Support China’s
own environmental and
energy policies.
 Goal 2. Demonstrate
the technical feasibility of
Japanese tech in China.
 Goal 3. Promote
diffusion of
demonstrated technology
in China.
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Components
Policy Dialogue
Study Cooperation
Technology
Demonstration Projects
Energy Efficiency
Clean Coal Tech
Other Env. Tech
Training and “Diffusion
Seminars”
S.B.Ohshita, USF
GAP in Context: Intertwined with other
Japan-China cooperation
METI/ANRE
GAP
Activities
& Budget
MOFA
ODA
Budget
from
General
Account
Budget
from
Special
Energy
Account
NEDO, JETRO,
industry, etc.
JICA, JBIC,
etc.
 Recent NEDO brochures don’t even mention that
projects are part of GAP.
 METI and NEDO no longer advertise GAP budget.
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S.B.Ohshita, USF
Japan-China GAP Network:
Interests Aligned for Technology Transfer
China
SDPC
(Lead Agency)
Industry
Bureaus
Japan
Policy
Dialogue
NEDO
Beijing
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NEDO
Industry
Associations
Local
Government
Model
Enterprises
METI
(Lead Agency)
Technology
Transfer
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Technology
Providers
S.B.Ohshita, USF
But . . . Interests Don’t Align for Diffusion:
GAP is Missing Diffusion Mechanisms
China
SDPC
(Lead Agency)
Model
Enterprises
Japan
METI
(Lead Agency)
Policy
Dialogue
Technology
Providers
Technology
Transfer
Missing Mechanisms for
Diffusion
Potential Technology Adopters
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Technology
Diffusion
???
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S.B.Ohshita, USF
Int’l Comparison of CCT Cooperation:
Still hard to promote diffusion in China
GEF Industrial Boiler Project
Approach: licensing to Chinese manufacturers
Advantages: lower cost, facilitates local O&M, appeals to
Chinese interests
Results: foreign technology providers worried about patent
protection & revenue generation  reluctant to participate
UK Guizhou & Shanxi Energy Efficiency (GASEE) Programme
Approach: incremental improvements in existing boilers, etc.
through technical assistance and local technology
Advantages: quick, low-cost improvement; personnel training
Results: positive initial results and Chinese interest in
dissemination, but UK funding cuts halted further progress
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Conditions within China have not favored
diffusion of some cleaner energy tech
Coal price fluctuations and changing
policies on coal industry structure create
uncertainty and reluctance for mines to
invest.
Ex: Yanzhou Mine vs. Linyi Mine
Domestic loans more difficult with banking
reform, local gov’t hard budget constraint.
Ex: SOE reform, budget law
Weak enforcement of SO2 standards does
not motivate enterprises to invest.
Ex: Weifang Chemical, Jinzhou Co-gen
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Analysis of 1990s GAP Performance:
If Diffusion is the Goal, Japan Needs to…
conduct economic analysis and promote
market development
select model projects with diffusion in mind 
show economic & operational feasibility,
not just technical feasibility
encourage development of Chinese policies
with incentives for technology adopters
undertake more “soft” tech transfer  info
campaigns, training, management systems
urge China to create domestic financing
mechanisms for technology adopters
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S.B.Ohshita, USF
GAP Since 2000: Overview
Some achievements in EE demo projects
Still no diffusion, even after Diffusion Working
Group called for market development efforts
Later, trend toward policy emphasis, training
projects, support of management systems
Japan pushing CDM designation for GAP
demo projects . . . but China opposed
Collapse in GAP policy dialogue with China
since 2002; projects stopped.
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GAP EE Projects in China, 1993~2002
Blast Furnace Heat Recovery
(Laiwu Steel) 1993
*AIJ* Dry Coke Quenching
(Shougang Steel) 1997
Soot Blower
(Tianjin Power) 1993
*AIJ* Furnace Energy Conservation
(Liaoyang Ferro-Alloy Works) 1998
Variable Speed Clutch
(Tianjin Power) 1993
*AIJ* Refuse Incineration Heat Recovery
(Harbin Co-gen) 1998
Energy Recovery
(Shengli Oil Refinery) 1993
Oxygen Converter Gas Recovery
(Maanshan Steel) 1998
Coil Moisture Control
(Chongqing Steel) 1993
Blast Furnace Heat Recovery
(Handan Steel) 1998
Ammonia Heat Recovery
(Chuanhua Chemical) 1993
Alkali Recovery
(Shandong Cangshan Paper) 1998
Blast Furnace Pressure Recovery
(Panzihua Steel) 1994
Acrylonitrile Energy Recovery
(Anqing Petrochemical) 1999
Sinter Cooler Heat Recovery
(Taiyuan Steel) 1995
Re-heating Furnace Control
(Jinan Steel) 1999
Heat Recovery
(Ningguo Cement) 1995
*stopped* Waste Heat Utilization
(Guangxi YuFeng Cement) 2002
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GAP EE Projects in China, 1993-2002
total energy savings
~4,200 TJ/yr
total annual EE budget
$40~$104 million
3 AIJ projects in 1997-98
(2 steel + 1 co-gen)
9 in steel industry
(waste heat recovery,
etc.)
3 in petro/ chemical
3 in power/ co-gen
(motor, heat recovery)
2 in cement (heat recovery)
1 in paper industry
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GAP and Beyond Since 2000:
Trend Toward Policy/ Program Cooperation
First conduct policy collaboration, then select
suitable programs and projects
Require evaluation and reporting on program and
project performance
Example: Energy Manager System in Thailand
Based on Japanese system
Development of laws with Thai government (requirement for
Energy Manager at enterprises)
Institution building (establishment of training and certification
institute)
Capacity building for Thai instructors (“train the trainers,”
financial support for exam development)
Exam Training Course for Thai enterprise staff
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GAP & CDM Stalemate: Why was AIJ
possible but CDM halted dialogue?
Increasing tension in Japan-China relations
Sharp decline in Japanese ODA to China (~20%/yr)
Japanese economic slump + Chinese economic growth 
trade concerns, less emphasis on environment
High-level (Prime Minister) political tensions
Poor US stance on climate and war
Different conditions for AIJ vs. CDM
if CDM, SDPC would lose discretion  Chinese bureaucratic
turf battles
GAP trend to training and policy cooperation, but SDPC
wants more GAP demo projects without more restrictions
China still developing stance on CDM, pushing for best deal,
wary of implications for future climate activities
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Future Outlook on GAP and CDM
Timing urgency for CDM
CDM credit receipt takes 2~3 years
2008 deadline on 1st Commitment Period
So…need to launch CDM projects by 2005
To overcome stalemate in China, METI plans to
separate GAP and CDM
GAP will continue trend toward policy dialogue and
capacity building
Possible that more technology projects will occur
outside of GAP, to gain CDM status
Possible that GAP will fade, and variety of
cooperation will continue under different names
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Beyond GAP:
If EE is the Goal, Japan Needs to…
cooperate on development of energy efficiency
(EE) standards with China
cooperate on development of policy incentives
and implementation mechanisms for EE
facilitate development of training and
certification system for energy &
environmental managers
support development of Chinese engineering
and O&M capabilities on EE technology
encourage development of Chinese R&D and
manufacturing capabilities on EE
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Future Japan-China EE Cooperation:
Structure, Players, and Interests
China
Japan
Central
Government
Policy
Dialogue
National
Government
Policy Implementation
Local
Government
Capacity
Building
Training
Institutions
Managers,
Training Inst.
C. Technology
Providers
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Industrial
Enterprises
Tech
Diffusion
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J. Technology
Providers
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Future Japan-China EE Cooperation:
National Government Role and Interests
Japanese National Government
What forms of EE cooperation should be
supported by direct use of public money?
What forms of EE cooperation will strengthen
relations with China?
How can gov’t provide indirect support for
Japanese industry, trade, and economy?
Chinese Central Government
What forms of EE cooperation best serve
economic interests? Foreign relations?
How can turf battles (SDPC vs. SEPA vs. MOFA)
be overcome, to facilitate EE implementation?
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Future Japan-China EE Cooperation:
China Central-Local Government Issues
Bureaucratic Networks
Which agencies have more authority and budget
at the center?
Which central-local (vertical) networks are
strongest in terms of authority? In terms of
information flow?
Local Government Interests
Need mandate for EE that is as strong as hard
budget constraint and other economic mandates.
Local officials need incentives to implement EE,
such as EE budget and recognition in
performance evaluations
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Future Japan-China EE Cooperation:
Technology Provider and Financier Issues
Japanese Technology Providers
Would like to see gov’t support the introduction of
their EE technologies in China
Direct vs. indirect support (technology subsidies,
F/S funding, risk guarantee)
 But, should not limit to Japanese firms if goal is
widespread EE diffusion!
Chinese Financial Institutions
General stance: lending for env/EE is unprofitable
or risky
Might be more willing to lend to enterprises for EE
investments if gov’t requires it or provides risk
guarantee
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Future Japan-China EE Cooperation:
Chinese Enterprise Issues
Condition of Industrial Subsectors
Should develop EE requirements that are
consistent with economic and technological
condition of subsector
Enterprise Interests
Need regulatory mandate for EE that is as strong
as enterprise reform mandates
Need incentives to better manage EE, such as
information exchange and training
Need incentives to invest in EE technology, such
as tax relief, favorable loan terms, and public
recognition (rewards)
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Future Japan-China EE Cooperation:
Need for Training Institutions
Training Institutions in Japan
Role of these institutions will grow
Gov’t funding likely to increase for training
Training Institutions in China
For greatest effectiveness, must build the capacity
of training institutions in China (“train the trainers”)
Should leverage strong existing institutions and
networks
Pay attention to past problems with GAP seminars
and Environmental Friendship Center
Learn from progress in Thailand and Phillipines
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Conclusion
Concentrate on capacity building and
policy cooperation on EE, rather than
technology demonstration
Separate GAP and CDM; pursue policy
cooperation in parallel with CDM projects
Pay attention to Chinese domestic
implementation mechanisms
int’l policy & program cooperation
+ strong central gov’t mandates
+ local implementation incentives
effective policy change in China
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