Transcript POLAND’S ECONOMY

Strategy and Analyses Department
Poland’s economy
& CEE region countries
April, 2012
2
Strengths of Poland
•
Area: 323 thousand km2 - 9th in Europe,
69th in the world
•
Population: 38.5 million - 8th in Europe,
Large domestic
market
34th in the world
•
Currency: Polish Zloty (EUR 1 ≈ PLN 4.12)
(USD 1 ≈ PLN 2.96)
•
GDP total: EUR 354.3 bln (USD 469.4 bln)*
•
GDP per capita PPP: EUR 15 300 (USD 19 000)*
•
GDP per capita: EUR 9 300 (USD 12 300)*
•
GDP growth: 3.9%*; 4.3% - 2011
•
Membership: OECD, WTO, NATO, EU
* Data for 2010
Central location
in Europe
International legal
and business
standards
Young and welleducated workforce
Prezentacja - Curabitur fermentum, leo eget auctor porta
1600
4
1700
1800
1900
2000
9
CEE region macroeconomic data
GDP
Country
Population
in mln
Nominal in USD mln
Tarde with China in USD mln*
% change
Per capita PPP in
USD thous.
Exports
Imports
Balance
2010
2010
2011
2010
2011
2010
2011
Belarus
9,5
55,2
55,5
7,7
5,3
14,000
15,028
469,4
1 639,9
-1 170,5
Bulgaria
7,5
47,7
53,5
0,4
1,7
12,965
13,597
296,2
676,9
-380,7
Croatia
4,4
60,8
63,8
-1,2
0,0
17,819
18,192
37,7
1 440,7
-1 403,0
Czech Republic
10,5
197,7
215,3
2,7
1,7
26,121
27,062
1 504,4
9 982,0
-8 477,6
Estonia
1,3
18,3
22,2
2,3
7,6
18,539
20,380
175,7
688,9
-513,2
Hungary
10,0
128,6
140,3
1,3
1,7
18,810
19,591
1 920,6
6 176,9
-4 256,3
Latvia
2,3
24,0
28,3
-0,3
5,5
14,419
15,662
33,1
286,3
-253,2
Lithuania
3,3
36,5
42,7
1,4
5,9
17,333
18,856
36,9
570,2
-533,3
POLAND
38,2
469,4
513,8
3,9
4,3
18,951
20,334
Romania
21,5
164,4
189,8
-1,6
2,5
11,904
12,476
410,1
3 381,5
-2 971,4
Slovakia
5,4
87,2
96,1
4,2
3,5
22,122
23,304
1 358,0
3 922,0
-2 564,0
Slovenia
2,0
47,0
49,6
1,4
-0,2
28,131
28,642
116,4
1 394,7
-1 278,2
Ukraine
45,8
137,9
165,0
4,1
5,2
6,698
7,233
1 316,6
4 700,4
-3 383,8
TOTAL
161,7
1 474,7
1 635,9
X
X
X
X
9 302,2
51 563,4
-42 261,2
Source: IMF & * UNCTAD
** The source of Polish trade data is Poland's CSO, as the only available data for Poland presented by UNCTAD is estimation
2010
1 627,0** 16 703,0** -15 076,0**
HUAWEI CEE & Nordic Business Center
In 2008, Huawei established CEE & Nordic Business
Center
in Poland.
CEE & Nordic HQ: Poland
 Area: 5000 m²
 Employee：500
 Managing：24 countries
Including Sweden, Norway,
Austria, Romania, Greece…
Sweden
Training Center：Poland & Czech
 Area:
Poland:200 m²
Czech:180 m²
 Lectors：30
 Lessions：Radio，
Transmission，
R&D Center in Sweden
 300+ specialists
 From 2000r.
 Radio Technology, Core
network
HQ
Poland
Czec
h
Hungary
Supply Center:
Hungary
 Area：20000 m²
 Output：3000 psc/month
Romania
Technical Supporting
Center: Romania
 7*24 guarantee
 500 engineers
 area: 1200m²
11
Poland
Sustainable and balanced economic growth
Poland joins
the EU
Leader of GDP
growth in EU
EU
Presidency
Schengen
Entry into
the NATO
WTO
1 600 000
1 400 000
1 200 000
OECD
1 000 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
Data: Poland’s CSO
200 000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011*
Poland’s GDP in mn PLN
* CSO preliminary estimation
12
Poland’s GDP growth
(% change, yoy)
8.0
Data: Poland’s CSO
7.0
7.1
7.0
6.0
6.8
6.2
% 5.0
6.2
5.1
5.3
5.0
4.5
4.0
4.3
4.3
3.9
3.7
3.9
3.6
3.0
2.0
5.1
2.6
1.0
1.2
1.6
1.4
0.0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011*
 According to preliminary estimates in 2011 GDP growth amounted to
4.3%.
 The biggest growth contribution was made by consumption.
13
Nominal GDP of CEE countries - EU member states
(PPP, EUR bn, 2010)
Estonia
21.0
Poland
583.7
Latvia
28.0
Slovenia
42.5
Lithuania
46.1
Bulgaria
80.8
Slovakia
97.3
Hungary
158.1
Romania
243.7
Czech Republic
204.4
Data: Eurostat
14
CEE countries GDP growth rates 2009-2011
(compared with the same period of the previous year)
10,0
7,6
8,0
5,9
5,5
6,0
3,9 4,3
4,0
2,7
1,7
2,0
2,3
1,7
1,3 1,7
0,4
1,4
4,2
2,5
1,6
3,3
1,4
0,0
-0,2
-0,3
-2,0
-1,6
-4,0
%
-6,0
-5,5
-4,7
-4,9
-8,0
-6,8
-6,6
-8,0
-10,0
-12,0
-14,0
-16,0
-18,0
-14,3
-14,8
2009
2010
2011
-17,7
-20,0
Data: Eurostat
15
CEE countries industrial production
January 2012 (yoy)
10,0
8,2
8,0
9,2
7,0
6,0
4,0
%
2,0
EU average
0,6
0,6
1,4
2,3
0,0
-0,4
-2,0
-4,0
-2,7
-2,2
Data: Eurostat
16
CEE countries construction production
January 2012 (yoy)
40,0
34,1
30,0
20,0
%
10,0
EU average
1,2
0,0
2,8
-1,4
-10,0
-20,0
-7,0
-6,6
-19,7
-30,0
Data: Eurostat
17
CEE countries inflation rate
February 2012 (yoy)
5,8
6,0
5,0
4,4
%
4,0
EU average
2,7
3,0
2,0
3,3
3,7
4,0
4,0
4,4
2,8
2,0
1,0
0,0
Data: Eurostat
18
CEE countries unemployment
February 2012
18,0
%
16,0
14,0
14,0
12,4
12,0
EU average
10,2
10,0
%
8,0
11,0
8,7
6,8
7,1
6,0
4,0
2,0
0,0
Data: Eurostat
19
Foreign trade in the years 2000-2011
bn EUR
160
120
80
40
0
-40
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
export
34,3
40,3
43,3
47,4
59,6
71,4
87,9
101,8 116,2
98,2
120,4 135,8
import
53,0
56,1
58,2
60,2
71,3
81,2
100,8 120,4 142,4
balance -18,7
-15,8
-14,9
-12,8
-11,7
-9,8
-12,9
export
Data: CSO
import
-18,6
balance
-26,2
2011
107,5 134,2 150,5
-9,3
-13,8
-14,7
20
Foreign Direct Investments
18,000
Foreign Direct Investments in Poland17,222
Data: NBP
16,000
15,707
14,000
EUR mln
12,000
10,000
10,268
10,173
8,000
10,118
10,244
9,392
8,329
6,000
6,736
6,357
4,000
4,374
4,084
2002
2003
2,000
0
2000
2001
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*
2011*
 In 2010 FDI main foreign investors in Poland were European countries (EUR
6.6bn)
 At the end of 2010 FDI inward stock accounted to EUR 150.4bn.
 Companies from Germany, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg are the biggest
foreign investors in Poland
* Estimated value
21
Poland’s EU membership is beneficial for FDI
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Part of the single market of 455
million
Stable economy
Free movement of goods, services,
capital and labuor
Rise in production volume
Increase in FDI inflow
Increase in economic
creditworthiness
Transparent legal system
Saving time from procedures while
exporting and importing to the EU
Easy transport within the EU, no
delays at border crossing
Financial aid from the EU
22
Projection of EU GDP
growth in 2012
European Commission
0
Data: European Commission
23
Poland’s Economy – 2012 forecast
Indicator
GDP
Forecast
2.5%
Domestic demand
2.0%
Consumption
2.5%
Private consumption
2.9%
Public consumption
1.2%
Gross capital formation
Gross fixed capital formation
0.1%
1.5%
Exports
4.6%
Imports
3.2%
Consumer Price Index
2.8%
Industry Price Index
4.6%
Unemployment rate
12.3%
Source: 2012 Budgetary Law
Thank you for your attention
www.gochina.gov.pl/CEE
Ministry
of Economy
pl. Trzech
Krzyży
3/5 22 693 tel.
[email protected]
50 00
email: [email protected]
Pl. Trzech
Krzyży 3/5
email
Ministry
of Economy
tel +48
50 00+48 22
00-507
Warsaw
www.mg.gov.pl
40 46
Strategy and Analyses Department
00-507 Warsawfax +48 22 693fax
+48 22web
693
40 46
web: www.mg.gov.pl
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