Transcript In search of a consistent Risk Analysis Framework for

In search of a consistent Risk
Assessment Framework for
organisms
Society for Risk Analysis ANZ conference 2013
Office of the Gene Technology Regulator
Andrea Robold and Paul Keese
We wish to acknowledge the persons who made the photographs or other images used in this presentation freely available on the internet.
When do risk assessment of organisms?
•
When someone would like to release a new or modified organism, eg GMO or
synthetic organism
•
When someone would like to introduce an exotic organism to Australia, eg
exotic pasture species, ornamental plants or a biological control agent
•
When we have to assess possible risk to native organisms, crops or domestic
animals, eg during a disease outbreak
•
Namely, when there are uncertainty and a valuable environment.
Risk assessment of organisms
Assess the likelihood and consequences by considering
• the organism and
• the environment potentially affected by the organism and
• their interaction.
Likelihood assessment
Invasiveness of the
organism.
Susceptibility of the
environment to invasion.
establish – reproduce – spread
resource availability and suitability –
presence of stressors
Risk assessment of organisms
Likelihood
Organism
Invasiveness
Environment
Susceptibility
Degree of
invasion
Consequence assessment
Impact of the organism.
Sensitivity of the environment.
Risk assessment of organisms
Consequence
Organism
Impact
Environment
Sensitivity
Degree of
harm
Risk assessment of organisms
Likelihood
Consequence
Organism
Invasiveness
Impact
Capability
to do damage
Environment
Susceptibility
Sensitivity
Vulnerability
to damage
Risk assessment of organisms
Likelihood
Consequence
Organism
Invasiveness
Impact
Capability
to do damage
Environment
Susceptibility
Sensitivity
Vulnerability
to damage
Degree of
invasion
Degree of
harm
Risk
Acknowledgements
OGTR staff and
members of the National Post-Border Weed Risk Management Forum
Prof Lute Bos – Plant Viruses, unique and intriguing pathogens (1999)
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