Transcript ELOISE: Truly integrating man in coastal science

Food Systems in the Coastal Zone:
A LOICZ Perspective
L. Talaue-McManus
Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science
University of Miami
LOICZ Structure
Scientific
Steering
Committee
•External forcing or
boundary conditions
•Coastal biogeomorphology
•Carbon fluxes &
trace gas emmissions
International
Project Office
•Economic & social
impacts of global change
National
Programs
Regional/
Global Projects
International Network of 3000+ Scientists
Sediment Load at River Mouth (MT/yr)
Syvitski and Morehead, 1999 (Natural)
Sediment Load (MT/yr)
<1
1-10
10-25
25-50
50-100
100-200
200-400
>400
Nile
Nutrient fluxes
Typology
To discern
Regional &
Global patterns
200 sites
with
nutrient
22002
222
budgets
Nutrient
Budget
Modeling
Predictive
relationships
Clustering
& Visualization
tools
Using global
Databases to
Scale up
The LOICZ Typology Environmental Database
World gridded into 259,200 halfdegree cells;
219 variables, of which 92 are
“selected” – oceanic, atmospheric,
geomorphic, terrestrial, ‘human dimension,’
special applications – all public domain, with
global or near global coverage.
Developmental Partner – Biogeography of the
Hexacorallia (www.kgs.ukans.edu/Hexacoral)
Relevant features:
• Selectable geographic regions;
• Internet links to Web-LOICZView clustering, Ocean Biogeographic Information
System;
• Extensive and growing inventory of data characterization/manipulation tools;
Predictive relationships
(Smith et al., 2003)
Log (mol DIP km-2 yr-1) =
2.72 + 0.36 X log (persons km-2 ) +
0.78 X log (runoff in m3 yr-1)
DIP load, number of persons, and runoff
scaled to catchment basin area
N=168; r2 = 0.58
Nutrients:
Human-generated and Loads
Parameter
RRD
(mmol m-2 yr-1) CNP=
1000:13:1
DIP generation
Agriculture
Household
DIP load
DIN
generation
Agriculture
Household
DIN load
Bandon Bay Lingayen
CNP =
Gulf CNP =
324:27:1
106:16:1
Merbok
Estuary CNP
= 1400:9:1
520
78%
NA
10
21%
14%
90
45%
53%
180
31%
NA
110
25
65
20
1,940
60
800
2,480
76%
NA
21%
15%
78%
20%
28%
NA
405
1140
425
670
Nutrient yield and load to the world ocean
(Estimates for DIP)

Most of the world coastline
still has low yield


High yield is locally restricted

yield

top red, yellow (1, 2% of
coastal cells).
Most of the load comes from
regions with low to
intermediate yield

load


top blue (68% of coastal cells).
bottom red, yellow and white
(38, 34, 19% of load);
top green, white, and blue
(20, 9, 68% of coastline).
Load will continue to grow
with population and land use
change.
LOICZ II: Main Challenge
Interacting changes in the global CZ are 3-fold:



Global
Regional (transboundary & supra-national)
Catchment level
“Understanding & assisting in the management of
these changes, to ensure the continuity of goods
and services provided by the CZ, IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OF A FUTURE LOICZ”.
1. River basin deliveries to CZ
 Damming
 Catchment
modelling of nutrients and
pollutants
 Local governance & resource
management
 Land use and cover change & critical
thresholds of mass transport
 Sediment continuum
2. Coastal development & change
 Coastal
urbanization
 Modification of coastal habitats
 Changing deltaic coasts
 Changing sea use (e.g. large-scale
engineering, aquaculture, supplemental
energy sources)
3. Fate & transformation of
materials in coastal & shelf waters
 Interaction
between changing coastal
ecosystems and biogeochemical functions
 Biogeochemical processes and the small
food web
 Trace and greenhouse gasses in the CZ
 Coastal zones as CO2 sink or source
 Groundwater seepage
4. Vulnerability of coastal systems
& human safety
 Hard
vs. soft coastal defences
 Natural hazards and quality of life
 Climate forcing and harvestable
production
 Future of coral reefs
 Sea level rise: impacts & adaptation
Major issues on food systems in the coastal zone
1. Agriculture and sewage
2. Coastal habitat modification
3. Overharvest
4. Changing climate
Coastal eutrophication
Compromised ecological functions
of land surface
< resource base
Reduced
Changing resilience of coastal systems
Wilson et al in prep.
LOICZ Wish List
 Contribute
its strengths
 Mobilize its network of scientists
 Realize knowledge products
 Assist local and regional scientific
networks to integrate global environmental
change in their research agenda for the
coastal zone