Transcript Evolution, Economics and the Shape of the Singularity

Evolution, Economics and
the Shape of the Singularity
Mark R. Waser
Predicting the Future
• Extrapolate from the present (linear/exponential)
• Work backwards from constraints
 Have a complete and rigorous model
Bifurcations (phase shifts and true “black swans”) can
ruinously interfere with any method of prediction
BUT . . .
While we can’t predict
specific features of the future . . .
We *can* tell a lot about how likely
various Singularity scenarios are
. . . particularly those expected in the
near term or believed already occurred
Predictions
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Anti-gravity
Body Morphing
Computers “Waking Up”
Cold Fusion
Cloning
Cryonics
Cyborgs
Living “Forever”
Faster Than Light Travel
Flying Cars
Grey Goo
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Infinite Intelligence
Living In Virtual Reality
Medical Nanotech
Multiple Bodies
Replicators
Super-Intelligent Humans
Super-Intelligent Machines
Telepathy
Unlimited Energy
Uploading
World Peace
Reaction Time
2 x 108 m/s
2 x 108 m/s
Other Common Mistakes
• Phase Changes
• Entropy
• “Bumblebees can’t fly”
• Quantum Mechanics
• Braided Rings
Utility is not linear
Evolution
• Punctuated equilibrium
• Intermediate stages
(jawbone flexible skull inner ear)
• Convergent evolution (the eye)
Genetic/Evolutionary algorithms
Seed AI (link, link)
Program Evolution for General Intelligence/
MOSES (link)
Economy
• 80% of the brain is unused
• Prediction markets
• Dollars *heavily* influence the direction of
research AND legislation
 Attention Economics (link)
 Economic Attention Networks (link)
 Evolution of Cooperative Problem-Solving in an
Artificial Economy/Hayek Machine (link)
Dunning-Kruger Effect
Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge -- Charles Darwin
One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and
those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision
-- Bertrand Russell
Kruger, Justin; David Dunning (1999). "Unskilled and Unaware
of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence
Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments". Journal of Personality and
Social Psychology 77 (6): 1121–34. (link)
("the anosognosia of everyday life")
Some problems are so complex that you have
to be highly intelligent and well informed
just to be undecided about them
--Laurence J. Peter
• Complex (3-body problem)
• Complicated
• Chaotic
Singularitarians
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I. J. Good (link)
Vernor Vinge (link, link)
Eliezer Yudkowsky (link, link)
Ray Kurzweil (link, link)
• Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence (link)
• Singularity University (link)
• H+ Magazine (link)
Other Names
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Eric Drexler – nanotechnology (link)
Bill Joy - Why the future doesn’t need us (link)
Aubrey de Grey – anti-aging (link)
Ben Goertzel – WebMind/Novamente/OpenCog,
H+ (link)
• Hugo DeGaris – The Artilect War (link)
 Eric Baum – What Is Thought?/Hayek (link)
Singularitarianism
“Rapture of the Nerds”
Ray Kurzweil is a genius. One of the greatest hucksters of the age. That's
the only way I can explain how his nonsense gets so much press and has
such a following. Now he has the cover of Time magazine, and an article
called 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal. It certainly couldn't be
taken seriously anywhere else; once again, Kurzweil wiggles his fingers
and mumbles a few catchphrases and upchucks a remarkable prediction,
that in 35 years (a number dredged out of his compendium of biased
estimates), Man (one, a few, many? How? He doesn't know) will finally
achieve immortality (seems to me you'd need to wait a few years beyond
that goal to know if it was true). Now we've even got a name for the
Kurzweil delusion: Singularitarianism. -- PZ Myers, Pharyngula (link)
“Friendly AI”
Some fraction of the AI research community (or should I say,
"AI enthusiast community", since this attitude is now rare
among professional AI researchers) refuses to accept these
ideas. They insist on trying to design logic-based infallible
godlike AIs in spite of this being impossible. Some speculate
about what might be possible "in principle", given a universesized chunk of computronium and the lifetime of the universe
for its computations. They don’t like the abduction-based
alternative simply because "It would be just as fallible as a
human intelligence". To these "Shock Level Four" fanboys I
say “get a clue”.
-- Monica Anderson, H+ Magazine (link)
Functional AI
We need working AI as soon as possible. An AI with the
intelligence of the average 14-year old human would be worth
a trillion dollars since it would revolutionize everything we use
computers for today and would accelerate our advance as a
species more than any previous technology. It is our
responsibility as transhumanists to take this opportunity and
turn this misdirected reductionist, logical reasoning-based AI
research around to something that will be useful in our
lifetimes.
-- Monica Anderson, H+ Magazine (link)
Superhuman Intelligence
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Intelligence of “human” or “humanity”?
Must it be in one entity/“self”?
Will the Singularity be incomprehensible? (link)
What is the goal of all that intelligence?
Dunbar’s number (link) / Gossip, Grooming and the
Evolution of Language (link)
• Why Do Humans Reason? Arguments for an
Argumentative Theory (link)
• Towards A Model of Mind as a Laissez-Faire Economy
of Idiots (link)
Social Complexity & Collective Intelligence
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Facebook, Google, and Wikipedia
Wicked Problems & Issue Mapping
Enhanced Wikipedia & Semantic Web
Prediction Markets
Open Source Democracy
Open Source Morality
Predictions
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Anti-gravity
Body Morphing
Computers “Waking Up”
Cold Fusion
Cloning
Cryonics
Cyborgs
Living “Forever”
Faster Than Light Travel
Flying Cars
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Grey Goo
Infinite Intelligence
Super-Intelligent Machines
Medical Nanotech
Multiple Bodies
Replicators
Telepathy
Unlimited Energy
Uploading
World Peace