Transcript Photochemical Modeling for the 2008 Ozone Standard

Photochemical Modeling of Louisiana
for the 2008 Ozone Standard
Chris Emery
ENVIRON International Corporation, Novato CA
November 14, 2012
Template
Modeling System
• Follows from previous SIP modeling effort
– Consistency, familiarity with past LDEQ datasets
– Utilize some new state-of-the-science models
– Adhere to latest EPA requirements and guidance
• Photochemical Model: CAMx
• Meteorological Model: WRF (new)
• Louisiana Emissions Processing
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–
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Stationary: EPS3
On-road mobile: CONCEPT/MOVES (new)
Non-road mobile: NONROAD
Biogenic: MEGAN (new)
• Attainment Demonstration: MATS
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Modeling Period
• Model one season (September-October 2010)
– EPA guidance is moving away from “episodic” modeling
– Local ozone frequency/magnitude peaks in Spring and Fall
• Evaluated statewide 2008-2011 monitoring data
– Tally days exceeding thresholds: 60, 65, 70, 75 ppb
– Look for periods with statewide exceedances
– Identify appropriate “representative” ozone season
 No extremes: 2008 very low, 2011 very high
 Economic/natural deviations: 2009 hit hardest by recession
 Availability of national/regional/local datasets
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Site-Days Exceeding 75 ppb
Statewide and By Region
Region
Louisiana
Baton Rouge
New Orleans
Shreveport
Lake Charles
2008
2009
2010
43
26
1
3
2
68
35
10
6
11
88
39
15
14
9
2010
(Aug-Oct)
57
22
12
11
6
4
2010 Exceedance Analysis
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Modeling Domain
• Move to align with national CONUS domain
– Established by Regional Planning Organizations
– Used by EPA for many national modeling analyses
– TCEQ and other CENSARA states are moving to this
domain
– Improves data sharing and consistency
• Three-grid system
– 36 km CONUS
– 12 km south-central US
– 4 km Louisiana
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2160
1800
1440
1080
LCP Northing (km)
720
360
0
-360
WRF 4km
-720
CAMx 4km
-1080
-1440
CAMx 12km
WRF 12 km
-1800
CAMx 36 km
-2160
WRF 36km
-2880-2520-2160-1800-1440-1080 -720 -360
0
360 720 1080 1440 1800 2160 2520 2880
LCP Easting (km)
Louisiana WRF/CAMx Modeling Domains
CAMx
36 km: 148 x 112 (-2736, -2088) to (2592, 1944)
12 km: 159 x 141 ( -288, -1584) to (1620, 108)
4 km: 216 x 126 ( 72, -1224) to ( 936, -720)
WRF:
36 km: 165 x 129 dot points (-2952, -2304) to (2952, 2304)
12 km: 172 x 154 dot points ( -360, -1656) to (1692, 180)
04 km: 229 x 139 dot points ( 48, -1248) to ( 960, -696)
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Meteorological Modeling
• Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)
– Developed/maintained by the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
– Used by EPA and many states to support AQ modeling
• Run with configuration/options that work best from
our recent experience
– Modeling performed by Alpine Geophysics
• Model evaluation against observational data
– Statistics for winds, temperature, humidity
– Quantitatively/graphically evaluate precipitation
• Interface with CAMx (WRFCAMx)
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Anthropogenic Emissions Processing
• LA stationary (EPS3)
– 2010 Point sources from LDEQ EIS and hourly ARP/CAMD (ERG)
– Parish-level area sources from 2008 NEI – no change to 2010 (ERG)
• LA on-road mobile (CONCEPT)
– Parish-level activity data (HPMS), fuels, fleet mix
– Vehicle emission factors (MOVES)
• LA non-road mobile (NMIM/NONROAD)
– Parish-level EPA default equipment/activity
• LA Other (EPS3)
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–
–
–
Gulf-wide shipping and O&G (ERG/BOEM)
Haynesville Shale development (past ENVIRON work for Texas)
Port Fourchon activity (LSU/Starcrest)
LA deep-draft shipping ports/lanes (past ENVIRON work, BOEM)
• US-wide (SMOKE)
– Processed by Alpine Geophysics
• Biogenic (MEGAN)
• Daily fires (NCAR FINN)
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Model Performance Evaluation
• Evaluate model fidelity for ozone and precursors
– Rely on routine AQS and PAMS monitoring
– Screening model performance
 Basic graphics/statistics evaluating ozone
– Refined model performance
 Expand to precursors
 Conduct diagnostic & sensitivity tests (Probing Tools?)
• Identify best model configuration suitable for ozone
attainment demonstration
– Avoid “tuning” or curve-fitting
– Any changes must be justifiable, reviewed, documented
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Future Year Modeling
• 2017 attainment year (Moderate Area)
– Substitute 2010 emissions with 2017 projections
– Reflects controls and forecasted economic changes
– Biogenic emissions remain constant
• Nationally (mobile fleet regs, cross-state rule, MACT)
– RPOs & EPA have/developing projections to 2015-2020
• Locally
– On/non-road projected per activity forecasts and
MOVES/NONROAD
– Phase-in any local rules on stationary sources
– New facilities, closures/shut-downs
– O&G development trends/forecasts
• Sensitivity tests for source attribution and control response
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Ozone Attainment Demonstration
• EPA Model Attainment Test Software (MATS)
– Ingest 2010 and 2017 CAMx ozone estimates
– Calculate modeled 2017-2010 change as a “relative
response factor” (RRF)
 Use RRF to project 2010 design values (DV) at each monitor to
2017
 2010 DV is 5-year weighted average over 2008-2012
– 2017 DV must be <75 ppb at all sites
• If attainment is not demonstrated:
– Perform “weight of evidence” analyses, or
– Conduct additional local control scenario simulations
 LDEQ to develop packages of potential reductions
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