Transcript Factors that affect the success and failure of a Referendum

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The Constitution
 Is a book of rules that
describes the structure of
parliament and how lawmaking power is divided
between federal and state
parliaments
 The wording of the
constitution can be
changed only by a
referendum of all voters in
Australia.
Referendum – s128
 A Bill for an Act to amend the Constitution is drafted
 The Bill must pass the House of Representatives in the same way as
any other Bill
 The Bill must pass the Senate in the same way as any other Bill
(Section 128 does allow the GG to put a bill which only passes one house to
a referendum, but in practice this will never succeed. A referendum needs
all sides of politics to support it, and the GG will only act on the PM's advice.)
 Every enrolled person must vote to say whether they agree or
disagree with the proposed change: this is the referendum itself
 A majority (50% +1) of voters nationally must agree with the
amendment
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The referendum process under
s128
All enrolled of Australia must answer ‘yes’ or ‘no’ by ticking a box to
indicate their response to the question being posed.
Referendum – s128 cont...
 A majority of voters in a majority of states (ie at least 4 out
of 6) must agree with the amendment
 If the bill receives the 2 majorities, it is presented to the
Governor-General for the Royal Assent
 The Constitution is amended (An unlikely event: only 8 out of
43 have succeeded.)
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Double Majority
 A majority of voters is required in the whole of Australia (50%
+1) included is the NT and ACT
 AND
 A majority of voters in a majority of states (4 out of 6
states)*
 A majority of voters in the state that is adversely affected
 *The territories are not counted under this provision
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Factors that affect the success and
failure of a Referendum
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Strict Formula for Change
 Double Majority requirement makes it difficult to amend the
Constitution
 In particular, the majority of voters in the majority of states
requirement is difficult to achieve
 13 referendums achieved support of majority of Australians
 5 of these did not satisfy the double majority rule
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Complexity of the Issue
 In 1988 4 proposals were put to the people in one
referendum
 None were agreed to
 Every household received a 31 page booklet
 It set out the ‘for’ & ‘against’ arguments
 It was difficult to follow and voters were confused
 Voter vote ‘NO’ if they are confused
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Bi-partisan support
 A Referendum requires the support of both large parties
(labour/Liberal)
 Many voters will follow what their political party recommends
 If the political parties don’t agree, the proposal will fail
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Mistrust of politicians
 There is a common mistrust of politicians
 They see a Referendum as a way politicians grab more
power
 This may sway a voter to vote ‘No’
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Desire to maintain states rights
 Unified Australia??
 Many referendums are
considered by the states to
shift too much power to the
commonwealth.
 If state premiers urge a ‘no’
vote, the population of that
state are likely to follow.
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Timing
 The timing of Referendums could contribute to their lack of
success
 Referendums are usually held during elections
 1999 referendum cost $91million
 Voters are likely concerned with which party to vote for
 This takes the focus away from the proposed change
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Voter Conservatism
 Voters are reluctant to change something if they don’t see a
big problem with it
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Your Turn
 Questions 1 – 5
Page 63
 Complete Case Study
Pages 64 & 65.