Transcript 2nd International Conference on Fog and Fog Collection

2nd International Conference on
Fog and Fog Collection
July 15-20 2001
St John’s, Newfoundland
Dr Harvey Stern,
Climate Manager, Victoria
Introduction
• Dr Harvey Stern represented the Bureau of
Meteorology at the Conference.
• He presented a paper, jointly authored with
Kevin Parkyn.
• Harvey Stern’s attendance was financed by
the Bureau’s Aviation Program.
The Stern/Parkyn Paper
Title: ”A web-based Melbourne Airport fog and
low cloud forecasting technique”.
A brief glimpse of the synoptic climatology, upon
which the technique is based, follows.
To try out the technique, go to:
“http://www.weather-climate.com/fog.html”
Frequency of Melbourne Apt
fogs with cyclonic flow
Frequency with each direction for weak (left column), moderate
(middle), & strong (right) flow, and for light & variable flow.
20
16
12
8
4
direction
light
nne
ene
ese
sse
ssw
wsw
wnw
0
nnw
freq
(%)
Frequency of Melbourne Apt
low cloud with cyclonic flow
Frequency with each direction for weak (left column), moderate
(middle), & strong (right) flow, and for light & variable flow.
24
20
16
freq
12
(%)
8
4
direction
light
nne
ene
ese
sse
ssw
wsw
wnw
nnw
0
Frequency of Melbourne Apt
fogs with anticyclonic flow
Frequency with each direction for weak (left column), moderate
(middle), & strong (right) flow, and for light & variable flow.
12
8
freq
(%)
4
direction
light
nne
ene
ese
sse
ssw
wsw
wnw
nnw
0
Frequency of Melbourne Apt
low cloud with anticyclonic flow
Frequency with each direction for weak (left column), moderate
(middle), & strong (right) flow, and for light & variable flow.
24
20
16
freq
12
(%)
8
4
direction
light
nne
ene
ese
sse
ssw
wsw
wnw
nnw
0
Background
The idea of a Fog Conference began in 1995.
The First Fog and Fog Collection Conference
was held in in 1998 in Vancouver.
At this, the Second Fog and Fog Collection
Conference, there were delegates from 53
countries.
Delegates from 46 countries presented papers.
Sponsors of the Conference
• WMO.
• Environment Canada.
• Canadian Meteorological and
Oceanographic Society.
• Canadian International
Development Agency.
Conference Organisation
• Dr Robert Schemenauer, of
Environment Canada, was the
Conference Chair.
• Professor Hans Puxbaum, of the
Technical University of Vienna, was
the Scientific Committee Chair.
• There were seven Working Groups.
Key Subject Areas
• Fog (& dew) chemistry & deposition.
• Fog water collection, & associated social &
cultural impacts.
• Fog climatology, observation & modelling.
• Artificial fog dispersal.
• Fog’s impacts on industry.
Media Interest
• Canadian Broadcasting
Commission (CBC) interviewed
almost all presenters for a special
program on the conference.
• Several articles in the local St
John’s newspaper.
• An article in Melbourne’s Sunday
Age.
Key Aviation-Service
Papers
• Gurka & Mosher on improving services
to industry.
• Whiffen on measuring forecast
performance and impacts on industry.
• Chernikov on artificial fog dispersal.
• Bott on fog/low cloud numerical
modeling.
Key Results from
Aviation-Service Papers
• The Canadian FAR performance criterion of
0.50 is being met (current FAR is 0.45)
• The Canadian VFR reliability index (RI)
performance criterion of 0.95 is not being
met (current VFR RI is 0.90).
• The super-cooled fog disippation system can
be employed at both highways and airports.
Key Observation-Related
Papers
• Kouznetsov on a radar method
for detection of cloud &
precipitation parameters.
• Yamamoto et al on airport fog
radar.
Key Results from
Observation-Related Papers
• Preliminary evaluation of airport fog radar
suggests some differences in the radar
parameters depending upon the
occurrence fog/low cloud or precipitation.
• Data for more cases need to be taken.
Key Climatology-Related
Papers
• Muraca et al, on the climatology of
fog in Canada.
• Bendix on a fog climatology derived
from satellite data.
• Amiranashvili on long-term trends in
fog frequency.
• Yamamoto on fog-related disasters.
Key Results from
Climatology-Related Papers
• Canadian fog frequency is declining, the
Atlantic coast from over 150 days per year
(1951-80) to 132 days (1971-99).
• Fog-related transportation disasters are not
restricted to the aviation industry.
• Time series of satellite data are a tool for
constructing detailed fog climatologies.
Key Pollution-Related
Papers
• Wang et al and Hindman et al on the
impact of pollution on droplet size.
• Millet et al on what trends in fog-water
acidity indicate about corresponding trends
in air quality.
• Jagels, on the impact of acidic fogs on
forests.
Key Results from
Pollution-Related Papers
• Whilst pollution does impact on droplet size
(it reduces the average size), the available
data has not suggested a corresonding
decrease in rainfall.
• Declining fog-water acidity in many regions
reflects the consequences of tighter
emission controls.
Key Fog-Collection
Papers
• Edwards et al, Henderson and Falk, &
Rautenbach and Oliver, on community
involvement in fog-water collection.
• Larrain et al and Escobar on historical &
cultural aspects of fog.
Key Results from FogCollection Papers
• Fog-water collection technology allows
collection of sufficient clean drinking water for
the needs of poor rural communities.
• Regular consultation results in participation of
local communities.
• Anthropologists have established cultural &
practical links between fog & ancient peoples.
Other Key Papers
• Bresci & Salbitano on modelling fog-tree
interactions.
• Berkowicz et al on the role of dew in the arid
ecosystem.
• Urquizo et al, on a statistical technique to
predict fog-water deposition levels.
References to Verification
•
•
•
•
•
•
Development of Performance Criteria.
Addressing cause of no improvement.
Min PODs & Max FARs for Warnings.
Criteria for improvement in PODs & FARs.
Minimum VFR reliability index.
Proportion of amendments satisfying
response time criteria.
References to Training
• Development of Training Programs.
• Instructional materials & residence courses.
• Defining required skills, knowledge and
abilities, & learning paths required to achieve
desired competencies.
• Computer based learning modules, teletraining, web-based training, performance
support systems.
References to Systems
• Integrating tools for forecasting low ceilings &
visibility into a suite of applications.
• Algorithms to integrate multi-channel satellite
data and surface observations).
• Interactive alerts-based algorithms.
• Observational based statistical forecasting
systems.
• Hiring a TAF quality improvement manager.
References to Motivation
• Providing recognition for
outstanding aviation forecasts
and warnings.
• Most AMS forecaster awards
are presently given in the
severe weather area.
Conference Awards
• Robert Cunningham, for pioneering work in
fog chemistry during the 1930s.
• John Monteith, for pioneering work on dew
during the 1950s, including the MonteithPenman evapotranspiration equation.
• Dr Horacio Larrain, for pioneering and
ongoing work towards establishing
anthropological links.
Conference Outcomes
Conference established strong north-south and
east-west links with wide-ranging topics:
• How early arid-zone peoples obtained their
drinking water via fog collection and its
current application.
• The application of fog chemistry in air
pollution studies.
• Fog’s impact on modern-day industry.
Plenary Session
Recommendations
• Develop a global fog climatology (including
that of high-altitude fog & airport fog), and a
fog atlas.
• Focus on social & community interaction
aspects of fog-water collection development
projects - technical aspects are well-defined.
• Next conference is scheduled for 2004, at a
location yet to be determined.
Ongoing Work
Peter Newham is presently working on a
statistical model for timing the clearing of
fog at Melbourne Airport.
Kevin Parkyn is presently working with Seatle
meteorologist, Robert Jackson, exploring
the Australian applicability of Jackson’s
theoretical model for timing the clearing of
regions of fog & low stratus.
Implications of Ongoing Work
The possible integrating of:
• the ongoing Newham & Jackson/Parkyn work;
• the previous Goodhead work (on timing onset of
fog);
• the previous Keith work (on timing onset of low
cloud);
• the previous Stern/Parkyn work (on determing the
probability of fog and low cloud);
into a comprehensive knowledge-based fog & low
cloud forecasting system.
Concluding Remarks
Conference topics impact upon a range of general
Bureau interests - e.g., aviation & other industries,
climate & air pollution, & international relations.
They impact upon specific Bureau interests - e.g.,
work between Monash & the Bureau on indigenous
weather knowledge.
It was disappointing that there weren’t more papers
with a forecasting services focus.
It was also disappointing that there weren’t any
papers on fog’s impacts upon offshore industry.
To view the presentation again ...
Go to:
http://www.weather-climate.com/fog.ppt