Transcript referendums - Dipartimento di Scienze sociali e politiche

Chapter VI, Veto Player, George Tsebelis,
2002
Luca Vezzoli, EPS 2013
Introduction
 The result of referendum
 Median voter preferences
 Direct and mediated democracy: different outcome
 Classification of Referendum
 Referendum agenda power
 Veto Player Refendum
 Popular Initiatives
 Popular Vetoes
 Conclusion

 Referendum is
a form of direct democracy.
 Rousseau was one of the most important
supporter of direct democracy:
 «Sovereignty cannot be represented for the same
reason that it cannot alieneted […] No act of theirs
(the deputies) can be law, unless it has been
ratified by the people in person; and without
ratification nothing is law.»
The referendum can be introduces
preferences of the population in
policymaking process.
the
the
The referendum can have different results:
• In single dimension the result is the preference
of median voter
• In multiple dimension a median voter rarely
exist.
The winset of the SQ is
between two circle (Y,
d+2r) and (Y, d-2r)
 If the number of voter
increases, the radius of
the yolk (r) decreases.
This simplifies the
problem of identification
of the median voter and
the winset of the SQ
because the winset of the
SQ is approximate by a
circle of radius d.

The result of the policymaking
process in a direct democracy
is different from the result in a
rapresentative democracy.
 The outcome in the
parliament is Y but the
outcome of the referendum is
Y’.
 Also the winsets of the SQ are
different. W(SQ) for mediated
democracy and W’(SQ) for
direct democracy

Referendums create one addictional veto player:
the people.
This implies that:
• The change of the status quo becomes more
difficult
• The final outcome of the referendum
approximate the preferences of the median
voter
So the final outcome is located in the intersection
of the parlamentary and the popular winsets.




Required referendum: the
document has to be ratified
by the people.
VP referendum: an actor
has decide to hold a
referendum.
Popular Veto: the trigger
actor may be the
population at large or some
minority in the parliament
Popular initiative:
referendum is a proposal
by some political groups
the collected the required
signatures
The referendum agenda is diveded in two parts
“who ask the question” and “who trigger the
referendum”.
If both part are controlled by only one player:
player uses this power to eliminate the other veto
players (VETO PLAYER REFERENDUM)
 If agenda setting process is delegated through a
competitive process: the preferences of the public
will be better approximated

We condider two possible cases:
 «Parliamentary» government: coalition between
parties A, B and C
 «Presidential» system: with any possible winning
coalition among A,B,C,D and E is possible
In each one we will consider two possible agenda
setters: party A and E
In parliamentary
goverment: A’ is the
unanimity core of the
governament coalition
A,B ,C. In any case A
obtains A’, with or
without the
referendum.
 In presidential system:
A chooces the
coalition A, D E. This
coalition is the only
one can approve point
in the circle (A, AA’).

A’
 Parliamentary
governament: E tryes to
negotiate a different
government. If the
goverment doesn’t
change E will trigger
referendum and obtain E’
 Presidential system:
three possible coalition
ABE ADE CDE. And E
chooses ADE.
 The
agenda setter power is delegate to the
winner of a competitive process.
Different
groups can become agenda
setters in a referendum by winning the
right to present their question to the
electorate.
The whole legislative process is replaced
by referendum
Non-Veto
Players will select a
referendum if the government proposed
result is not inside the winset of the
median voter.
But the existing Veto Players can
capturing the preferences of the median
voter.
 Referendum alters
the rules and the outcome of
the legislative proces. Because it introduces an
extra veto player.
 The differences among referendum depend on
who control the agenda.
 Median voter preferences results will be better
approximated in the following order:
1) Popular initiative
2) Popular veto
3) VP referundum or mandatory referendum