Transcript 21st Century Commuting Patterns How is Washington Area

21st Century Commuting
Patterns
How is the Washington Area
Different
American Dream Coalition
Alan E. Pisarski
Reston Va.
Dec. 4, 2008
We are a major NATIONAL region
 Fairfax at 1 million = Richmond
metro area
 Northern Va. at 2 million+ is a
major national metro area by
itself
(= Pittsburgh; approaching Baltimore
metro area )
Attributes of the No Va
Commuting World
Wealth and stability
Multi-worker households
A leader in carpooling
More transit than expected
Fewer autos/commuter than all but
NY
 Gov’t still focused on center
 Highest level of cross-county
commutes





That’s why travel times stink
50%
45%
25.3
33.4
25.3
40%
29.3
30.8
< 20 MINUTES
33.6
37.1
> 60 MINUTES
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
US
DC MSA
ARL
ALX
FFX
LOU
PW
AV TT
And why we get up so early
20.00%
18.00%
16.00%
5AM - 6AM
14.00%
PRE 5
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
USA
DC MSA
ARL
ALX
FFX
LOU
PW
Annual Trips Per Household
by Household Income - 2001
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
USA
K
K
K
K
K
K
K
K
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$1
<
<
<
<
<
<
<
<
K
K
K
K
K
K
K
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
No
Va
K+
0
8
HELP STAMP OUT
AFFLUENCE!
WE CAN DO IT ---IF WE ALL PULL TOGETHER!
HELP STAMP OUT
AFFLUENCE!
WE CAN DO IT ---IF WE ALL PULL TOGETHER!
WE ARE ALMOST THERE!
We are rich because we work
$
median income vs workers/hh
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
FFX
LOU
ARL
ALX
PW
MSA
VA
USA
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
workers per household
1.6
1.7
1.8
Lots of cars
% HOUSEHOLDS WITHOUT VEHICLES
12
2007
10
8
6
4
2
0
USA
VA
DC
MSA
ALX
ARL
FFX
LOU
PW
Mode shares 2007
100%
Worked at home
80%
bike, other
Walked
60%
Transit
4 carpool
40%
3 carpool
2-carpool
20%
Drove alone
0%
US
DC
MSA
ARL
ALX
FFX
LOU
PW
Non-SOV mode shares 2007
100%
90%
80%
Worked at home
70%
bike, other
60%
Walked
50%
Transit
40%
4 carpool
30%
3 carpool
2-carpool
20%
10%
0%
US
DC
MSA
ARL
ALX
FFX
LOU
PW
Stolen from Bob Dunphy
via Bob Chase
If NOVA Were Separate Region
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
New York
Chicago
San
Francisco
Washington,
DC
Boston
Northern VA
Philadelphia
Santa Clara
Va leads the nation in commuting
out of residence county (Md #2)
LV STATE
LV COUNTY STAY IN STATE
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
US
VA
DC MSA
ARL
ALX
FFX
LOU
PW
Workers are our biggest export
workers exported each day
300000
43%
250000
200000
150000
100000
14%
10%
ARL
ALX
13%
20%
50000
0
FFX
LOU
PW
WHAT HAPPENED IN FAIRFAX!
1. Jobs rose and created balance with
workers
2. Live/work; 85% of new workers
3. BUT IMPORTS BOOMED TO FILL
REMAINING JOBS
300,000
250,000
200,000
1980
150,000
1990
100,000
2000
50,000
0
job deficit
exports
im ports
workers -jobs
workers -l/w
jobs -l/w
Nice to lead the nation in something
County-to-County Worker Flow Percentage: 2000
N
W
E
S
Cnty_cnty_wrkrflow.shp
0 - 25
25 - 100
County-to-County Worker Flow Percentage: 2000
N
Nice to lead the nation in something
W
S
Cnty_cnty_wrkrflow
0 - 25
25 - 100
Greater Mobility Makes Metro
Areas Smaller And Bigger




SMALLER
Easier Access to
Jobs
to Services
Customer
Markets
More affordable
homes near work
BIGGER
 Distant areas
now part of
economic engine
 Operate in world
markets as a
bigger player
The Challenge
 Reaching skilled workers will be the
key challenge for employers
 Employers will go where the skilled
workers are or where they want to be
 Competition will be amenities-based
 Good transportation will be one of the
amenities
 Metro areas that can meet this
challenge will be the big winners
THANK YOU!
Alan E. Pisarski
[email protected]
703 941-4257
US
DC MSA
ARL
ALX
FFX
LOU
PW
Total:
139,259,684
2,783,114
127,464
80,884
544,300
146,544
190,924
Car, truck, or van:
120,442,188
2,172,552
79,031
56,973
460,479
129,719
167,456
Drove alone
105,954,656
1,878,645
68,593
51,477
404,899
114,130
133,935
Carpooled:
14,487,532
293,907
10,438
5,496
55,580
15,589
33,521
2-carpool
11,139,037
211,378
8,446
4,325
41,612
11,183
19,255
3 carpool
1,963,018
48,911
1,361
317
9,319
2,033
8,906
4 carpool
1,385,477
33,618
631
854
4,649
2,373
5,360
Transit
6,800,512
371,137
33,176
18,576
42,574
2,472
8,993
Walked
3,954,210
82,419
6,900
1,657
9,373
2,095
3,085
bike, other
2,386,152
33,682
2,680
1,143
6,122
2,446
2,700
Worked at home
5,676,622
123,324
5,677
2,535
25,752
9,812
8,690
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
Car, truck, or van:
86.49%
78.06%
62.00%
70.44%
84.60%
88.52%
87.71%
Drove alone
76.08%
67.50%
53.81%
63.64%
74.39%
77.88%
70.15%
Carpooled:
10.40%
10.56%
8.19%
6.79%
10.21%
10.64%
17.56%
2-carpool
8.00%
7.60%
6.63%
5.35%
7.65%
7.63%
10.09%
3 carpool
1.41%
1.76%
1.07%
0.39%
1.71%
1.39%
4.66%
4 carpool
0.99%
1.21%
0.50%
1.06%
0.85%
1.62%
2.81%
Transit
4.88%
13.34%
26.03%
22.97%
7.82%
1.69%
4.71%
Walked
2.84%
2.96%
5.41%
2.05%
1.72%
1.43%
1.62%
bike, other
1.71%
1.21%
2.10%
1.41%
1.12%
1.67%
1.41%
Worked at home
4.08%
4.43%
4.45%
3.13%
4.73%
6.70%
4.55%
15.29%
23.90%
34.22%
29.76%
18.03%
12.32%
22.27%
Total:
CP + T
In This New World the Great
Issue Will Be Skilled Workers
• finding skilled workers will be the key
concern of business.
• they will go where those people are;
• or, go where those people want to be!
• Metro areas who can provide this
resource will be big winners!
• Minorities and Immigrants will be a
crucial part of the work force
THE COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT
Location, Amenities, Flexibility
 The increases in services in the economy will
permit more population to act on location
preferences as workers and employers are less
tied to resources and more attracted by
amenities.
 Areas of the country will compete for workers
on the basis of life-style, climate, and ease of
living. Good transportation will be one of the
competitive amenities.
 Employers will be forced to be more flexible in
schedules and benefits to attract workers.
Parsing the sprawl topic
 An ideal gov. program – no
definition of problem or measures
of success!
 Amorphous, ill defined goals –
 What is public and what is private?
 What is federal and what is local
gov.?
 Role of transportation
 Public preferences
“Efficiency” in
transportation;
BEWARE!






A Very Dangerous Word
THE EFFICIENCY OF WHO OR WHAT?
Transit is a more “efficient” vehicle!
The key to all transportation is the efficiency of
the users – passengers and freight – not the
vehicles
That’s why trucks not trains – cars not buses
One colossal pizza delivery per night per
neighborhood is “efficient”!
THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE NO OBLIGATION
TO LIVE IN WAYS THAT MAKE
GOVERNANCE MORE EFFICIENT!
“BLAMING TRANSPORTATION
FOR THE PROBLEMS OF SPRAWL
IS LIKE BLAMING HEALTH CARE
FOR THE PROBLEMS OF OLD
AGE.”
Brad Mallory, Sec DOT, Pa.
The sprawl debate diverts us
from the real issues







Lack of workers/skilled workers
Mainstreaming minorities
Safety
Serving an aging population
Responding to pressures of time
enhancing economic opportunities
Global competitiveness
% LEAVING COUNTY TO WORK





1990
U.S. 23.9%
2000
U.S. 26.7%
Va. 52%
2007
U.S. 27.4%
Va. 52.5%
COMMUTERS
 SPRAWL?
 ACCESS?
 OCCUPATIONS
?
The great loss from congestion is not
the extra three minutes it takes to get
home
HOUSEHOLDS
 It’s the decline in
the number of jobs I
could reach in ½ hr!
 It’s the decline in
the number of
affordable homes
accessible to my
work!
 It’s the decline in
the assurance of
arriving on time!
BUSINESSES
 It’s the decline in
the number of
workers within ½ hr
of my employment
site!
 It’s the decline in
the number of
suppliers &
customers within ½
hr of my business!
 It’s the decline in
ship- ment
reliability!
THE FAIRFAX STORY 1
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
1980
JOBS
1990
2000
WORKERS
THE FAIRFAX STORY 2
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
1980
JOBS
1990
LIVE/WORK
2000
WORKERS
THE FAIRFAX STORY 3
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
1980
1990
2000
JOBS
LIVE/WORK
WORKERS
EXPORTS
THE FAIRFAX STORY 4
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
1980
1990
JOBS
LIVE/WORK
EXPORTS
IMPORTS
2000
WORKERS
Where did residents work?
 Added 47,000
new workers
 40,000 Workers
stayed in County
 15,000 fewer
toward center
 21,000 more
toward edge &
ring
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
-50,000
2000
chg 90-00
IN
F
IR
A
F
X
A
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W
O
R
A
D
C
N
E
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R
E
C
IR
C
U
F
M
R
E
N
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T
L
IA
O
U
TB
U
O
N
D
WHAT HAPPENED IN FAIRFAX!
1. Jobs rose and created balance with
workers
2. Live/work; 85% of new workers
3. BUT IMPORTS BOOMED TO FILL
REMAINING JOBS
300,000
250,000
200,000
1980
150,000
1990
100,000
2000
50,000
0
job deficit
exports
im ports
workers -jobs
workers -l/w
jobs -l/w
Arlington – not quite perfect
yet!
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
2000
% WORK IN COUNTY %WORK IN CENTER
% WORK IN VA
Transportation Makes Cities Both
Smaller and Bigger
 Smaller in that the times to
traverse distances are reduced
 Bigger in that a city knitted
together with effective
transportation acts bigger
 economically
 socially
A VERY POSITIVE FUTURE
 Problems More Operable Today
 The Resources to Respond are
there
 People, Technology, Political &
Financial
 MUST RECOGNIZE CENTRAL ROLE
OF MOBILITY IN OUR SOCIETY
 MUST BE WILLING TO ACT TO
FOCUS RESOURCES
A VERY POSITIVE FUTURE
 Problems More Operable Today
 The Resources to Respond are
there
 People, Technology, Political &
Financial
 MUST RECOGNIZE CENTRAL ROLE
OF MOBILITY IN OUR SOCIETY
 MUST BE WILLING TO ACT TO
FOCUS RESOURCES
The Demographic Story
a New Phase in American Commuting
1. The Commuting in America series has been
the history of the working years of the
baby boom generation
2. The Boomers are now moving off stage
creating a new phase in American
commuting.
3. The key will be where will the new workers
come from?
4. Advent of the immigrant workforce will be
just one of the challenging concerns
#1 GREAT INCREASES IN WORKERS
LEAVING HOME COUNTIES TO WORK
 1990 23.9% of workers left home
county
 2000 26.7% (2007 almost 28%)
 90’s - 13.2 meg. new Workers 51%
Left home county (6.7 Meg.)
 00’s - Of 5 meg. new workers 55%
left home county (2.6 Meg.)
 Wash DC Area leads nation!