Transcript Slide 1

Overview of the Non-Domestic Fan
Product Profile
Ian McNicol, Sustainability Victoria
On behalf of the E3 Committee
A joint initiative of Australian, State and Territory and New Zealand Governments.
What we’ll cover
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
The Problem
Scope of the Profile
Energy Use and Greenhouse Emissions
Size of the Installed Fan Stock
Size of the Australian Fan Market
Fan Types and Potential for Improvements
Market Failures and Barriers
Approaches to Improving Efficiency
Potential Impact of MEPS for Non-Domestic Fans
Recommendations
1. Summary of ‘The Problem’
• Estimated 1.7 - 2.7 million fans installed in the industrial and
commercial sectors in Australia
• In 2009/10 used around 18,047 GWh of electricity, and produced
17.2 Mt-CO2-e of greenhouse gas emissions
• Represents around 10.5% of the total final electricity consumed in
these sectors
• By 2029/30, the electricity consumption is expected to grow to
around 26,101 GWh, resulting in 14.4 Mt-CO2-e of greenhouse gas
emissions
• Previous studies suggest that motor systems and building ventilation
fans represent a significant opportunity for negative cost carbon
abatement
• A range of market failures and barriers exist which hinder the
uptake of higher efficiency fan technology in the industrial and
commercial sectors
McKinsey Greenhouse Abatement Curve
Commercial air handling
Source: An Australian Cost Curve for Greenhouse Gas Reduction, McKinsey and Company, 2008
2. Scope of the Non-Domestic Fan Profile
• Focus of the Profile is “Non-Domestic”
fans
– although any regulations could pick up some
larger fans used in residential applications
• Technical boundary
– Fan System – (motor+fan) + controls +
ductwork
– Fan-Unit – (motor+fan)
– Fan – fan only (bare shaft fan)
Impact of the Technical Boundary
Total Ventilation System
Large Savings
Fan-Unit
Good Savings
Fan only
Motor +
Fan + VSD
Small Savings
Key Focus of Product Profile
• Scope has been limited to non-domestic
centrifugal and axial fans driven by electric
motors within a 125 W – 500 kW power range
– fans with motor input < 125 W are more likely to be
used in residential applications
– the few fans with motor input power > 500 kW are
likely to be custom built and due to their large power
consumption are likely to already take energy
efficiency into consideration
– This scope mirrors the power range of the fans
included in the EU’s Energy Using Product Directive
study
3. Energy Use and Greenhouse Emissions
• High level “top down” estimate of energy
and greenhouse emissions from fans is
based on:
– EU and Australian estimates of % energy use
by fans in different industrial and commercial
sectors
– Agriculture and power generation not
included in estimate
– Australian data on current and projected
future electricity consumption in different
sectors
Key Sources Used for Estimates
Publication
Data used in the model
Energy Update 2009 [ABARE 2009]
•
Energy consumption by industry sector for
base year
Australian energy national and state
projections to 2029-30 [ABARE 2007]
•
Projections of sector specific energy
consumption growth to 2029/30
Improving the Penetration of Energy
Efficient Motors and Drives [ISR 2000]
•
EU Study. Proportion of energy usage
attributable to fans for all industry sectors.
Distribution of energy consumption by motor
size for all industry sectors
•
Energy Efficiency Improvement
Potential Case Studies – Industrial
Sector [Energetics 2004]
•
Australian study. Proportion of energy usage
attributable to fans for the mining and oil and
gas extraction industry sectors in Australia
Energy Efficiency Improvement in the
Commercial Sectors [EMET 2004]
•
Australian study. Proportion of energy use
attributable to fans in the commercial services
sector in Australia.
Estimated Fan Energy Use by Sector
Industry Sector
All industry
Mining
Commercial and water services
Manufacturing
% of Sector
Elec Use
2009/10 Elec
Use (GWh)
2029/30 Elec
Use (GWh)
10.5
4.7
13.4
10.3
18,047
1,136
7,403
9,508
26,101
2,638
11,970
11,493
10.3
16.3
7.6
817
1,010
336
997
1,208
405
19.4
9.3
810
5,801
965
7,022
10.1
9.4
279
455
340
556
Manufacturing derived from:
Food, beverages and tobacco
Wood, paper and printing
Basic chemicals and Other chemicals,
rubber and plastic
Non-metallic mineral products
Iron and steel and Basic non-ferrous
metals
Machinery and equipment
Other manufacturing
20
09
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0
20
10
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1
20
11
-1
2
20
12
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3
20
13
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4
20
14
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5
20
15
-1
6
20
16
-1
7
20
17
-1
8
20
18
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9
20
19
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0
20
20
-2
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20
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20
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-2
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20
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-2
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-2
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20
25
-2
6
20
26
-2
7
20
27
-2
8
20
28
-2
9
20
29
-3
0
Est. Energy Use (GWh/Yr)
Projected Growth of Fan Energy Use by Sector
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
Commercial
Mining
Manufacturing
20
09
-1
0
20
10
-1
1
20
11
-1
2
20
12
-1
3
20
13
-1
4
20
14
-1
5
20
15
-1
6
20
16
-1
7
20
17
-1
8
20
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-1
9
20
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-2
0
20
20
-2
1
20
21
-2
2
20
22
-2
3
20
23
-2
4
20
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-2
5
20
25
-2
6
20
26
-2
7
20
27
-2
8
20
28
-2
9
20
29
-3
0
Est. Greenhouse Emissions (Mt/Yr)
Projected Greenhouse Emissions from Fans
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
4. Estimated Installed Stock of Fans
• Size of installed stock has been estimated
by:
– Estimating total energy use of fans in different
sectors over the modelling period
– Using EU and US studies which provide data
for different sub-sectors on:
• distribution of fan energy use by motor size
• number of fans per GWh of electricity consumed
for each motor size
Example of Fan Data – Food & Beverage Sector
Drive size (kW)
Proportion of fan
system electricity
usage
Number of fans per
GWh of electricity
consumed
< 0.75 kW
3.1%
933
0.75 - 4 kW
16.4%
127
4 - 10 kW
12.2%
77
10 - 30 kW
8.8%
19
30 - 70 kW
34.4%
5
70 - 130 kW
5.0%
3
130 - 500 kW
20.1%
1
> 500 kW
0.00%
N/A
Issues with Estimating Fan Stock
• Estimated size of the fan stock is important, as it
helps us build a “stock model”
– Enables forward projection of annual sales (stock
increase + retirements)
– Enables estimates of savings and cost-benefit from
measures such as MEPS to be made
• EU and Energetics data give fairly low estimate
for installed stock in the commercial sector
– More recent estimate by Pitt & Sherry suggests higher
stock numbers in the commercial sector
Estimated Fan Stock in 2009/10
Industry Sector
All industry
Estimate based on
EU fan stock –
EMET & Energetics
Estimate based on
EU fan stock – Pitt
& Sherry
1,740,100
2,668,000
22,700
22,700
Commercial and services
1,513,700
2,441,700
Manufacturing
203,700
203,700
Food, beverages and tobacco
51,300
51,300
Wood, paper and printing
19,400
19,400
Basic chemicals and Other chemicals,
rubber and plastic
2,600
2,600
Non-metallic mineral products
19,500
19,500
Iron and steel and Basic non-ferrous metals
78,100
78,100
Machinery and equipment
17,618
17,618
Other manufacturing
12,551
12,551
Mining
Manufacturing derived from:
Estimated Breakdown by Motor Input Power
55,588 (3.2%)
206,172
(12%)
17,665 (1.0%)
5,815 (0.3%)
2,401 (0.1%)
1,168,766
(68%)
282,456
(16%)
84% < 4 kW
96% < 10 kW
1,222 (0.1%)
< 0.75 kW
0.75 - 4 kW
4 - 10 kW
10 - 30 kW
30 - 70 kW
70 - 130 kW
130 - 500 kW
> 500 kW
5. Size of the Australian Market
• Only limited data is available from ABS on fan
imports, exports and manufacture
Harmonised Tariff Item
Statistical Classification
Description
84145900
Fans not elsewhere specified (“nes”)
84146000
Ventilating or recycling hoods
incorporating a fan, having a
maximum horizontal side not
exceeding 120 cm
Fan Imports to Aust. by Value
$160
$140
Import Value ($M)
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
841459 Fans nes
841460 Ventilating or recycling hoods incorporating a fan
Av. Imports of “Fans nes” = $85 M pa
/1
0
20
09
/0
9
20
08
/0
8
20
07
/0
7
20
06
/0
6
20
05
/0
5
20
04
/0
4
20
03
/0
3
20
02
/0
2
20
01
/0
1
20
00
19
99
/0
0
$0
Fan Imports to Aust. by Number
4,000,000
3,500,000
Number of fans
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
841459 Fans nes
841460 Ventilating or recycling hoods incorporating a fan
Av. Imports of “Fans nes” = 2.9 million pa
/1
0
20
09
/0
9
20
08
/0
8
20
07
/0
7
20
06
/0
6
20
05
/0
5
20
04
/0
4
20
03
/0
3
20
02
/0
2
20
01
/0
1
20
00
19
99
/0
0
0
Source of Fan Imports to Australia
$120
$80
$60
$40
$20
Africa
Asia (less China)
China
European Union
Europe (other)
North America
South America
/1
0
20
09
/0
9
20
08
/0
8
20
07
/0
7
20
06
/0
6
20
05
/0
5
20
04
/0
4
20
03
/0
3
20
02
/0
2
20
01
/0
1
20
00
/0
0
$0
19
99
Import Value ($M)
$100
Other
Changing Source of Fan Imports
Europe (other)
1%
Europe (other)
0%
North America
18%
North America
18%
South America
0%
South America
0.0%
Other
2%
Other
5%
Africa
0%
European Union
44%
European Union
49%
Africa
0.1%
China
24%
Asia (less China)
22%
China
5%
1999/00
2009/10
Asia (less China)
12%
Fan Exports from Aust. by Value
$25
$15
$10
$5
841459 Fans nes
841460 Ventilating or recycling hoods incorporating a fan
/1
0
20
09
/0
9
20
08
/0
8
20
07
/0
7
20
06
/0
6
20
05
/0
5
20
04
/0
4
20
03
/0
3
20
02
/0
2
20
01
/0
1
20
00
/0
0
$0
19
99
Value (FOB) ($M)
$20
Fan Exports from Aust. by Number
450,000
400,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
841459 Fans nes
841460 Ventilating or recycling hoods incorporating a fan
20
09
/1
0
20
08
/0
9
20
07
/0
8
20
06
/0
7
20
05
/0
6
20
04
/0
5
20
03
/0
4
20
02
/0
3
20
01
/0
2
20
00
/0
1
0
19
99
/0
0
Number of fans
350,000
20
09
/1
0
20
08
/0
9
20
07
/0
8
20
06
/0
7
20
05
/0
6
20
04
/0
5
20
03
/0
4
20
02
/0
3
20
01
/0
2
20
00
/0
1
19
99
/0
0
Sales Produced ($M)
Value of Australian Manufacture
$160
$140
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
6. Fan Types & Potential for Improvement
FANS
Centrifugal
No Casing
Backward curved
Axial
Casing
Roof Mounted
Within air
handling unit
(HVAC)
Wall Mounted
Forward curved, Backward curved, Backwards curved,
scroll casing
scroll housing
box casing
• Range of different fan types on the market
• Most ‘Non-Domestic’ Fans driven by three-phase
electric motors which are regulated for MEPS
Breakdown of Market into Fan Types
• No data currently available on breakdown of
Aust market into different fan types
• Have assumed that breakdown is similar to the
EU market
Fan type
Market Share
1. Wall mounted axial fan, static pressure <= 300Pa
8.2%
2. Wall mounted axial fan, static pressure > 300Pa
22.8%
3. Centrifugal, forward curved with casing
12.5%
4. Centrifugal backward curved without casing
3.9%
5. Centrifugal backward curved with casing
4.3%
6. Centrifugal backwards curved box fan
17.5%
7. Axial roof fan
30.8%
Fan Power and Efficiency
• Fan power is proportional to
the air flow rate x total
pressure against which the fan
is operating
• Fan performance is
characterised by a curve which
shows the relationship
between the developed
pressure and the airflow rate
and power
• “best efficiency point” (BEP) is
the point on the performance
curve where the fan energy
efficiency is highest
Efficiency Characteristics of Average Fan-Unit
Fan type
Overall
average static
efficiency of
fan unit
Average
electrical
power input
(kW)
1. Wall mounted axial fan, static
pressure <= 300Pa
30%
0.8
Direct drive
2. Wall mounted axial fan, static
pressure > 300Pa
38%
1.3
Direct drive
3. Centrifugal, forward curved with
casing
30%
0.44
Direct drive
4. Centrifugal backward curved without
casing
50%
3.76
Direct drive
5. Centrifugal backward curved with
casing
60%
3.82
Belt drive
6. Centrifugal backwards curved box fan
30%
0.37
Direct drive
7. Axial roof fan
40%
1.2
Direct drive
Based on EU data
Transmission
Derived Average Efficiency of Fan Alone
Fan type
Av. Fan-Unit
Efficiency
Av. Motor
efficiency
Transmission
efficiency
Derived fan
efficiency
1. Wall mounted axial fan,
static pressure <=
300Pa
30%
80.3%
100%
37.3%
2. Wall mounted axial fan,
static pressure > 300Pa
38%
81.7%
100%
46.5%
3. Centrifugal, forward
curved with casing
30%
71.8%
100%
41.8%
4. Centrifugal backward
curved without casing
50%
84.8%
100%
59.0%
5. Centrifugal backward
curved with casing
60%
84.9%
95.5%
74.0%
6. Centrifugal backwards
curved box fan
30%
69.3%
100%
43.3%
7. Axial roof fan
40%
81.5%
100%
49.1%
Based on EU data
Energy Saving Potential
Fan type
Av. Static
efficiency
Efficiency
range
Max fan unit
efficiency
Energy saving if
Av Eff Fan
Replaced by
Max Eff Fan
1. Wall mounted axial fan, static
pressure <= 300Pa
30%
20%
40%
25%
2. Wall mounted axial fan, static
pressure > 300Pa
38%
15%
45.5%
16.5%
3. Centrifugal, forward curved
with casing
30%
15%
37.5%
20%
4. Centrifugal backward curved
without casing
50%
13%
56.5%
12.5%
5. Centrifugal backward curved
with casing
60%
10%
65%
7.7%
6. Centrifugal backwards curved
box fan
30%
20%
40%
25%
40%
25%
52.5%
23.9%
7. Axial roof fan
Based on EU data
Improvements to Efficiency of Fan-Units
• Efficiency improvements from
– Higher efficiency motor
– Higher efficiency coupling
– Higher efficiency fan
• Improvements to fan from reducing losses
– Mechanical losses
– Volumetric losses
– Aerodynamic losses (greatest opportunity)
7. Market Barriers and Failures
• Key market failures & barriers which can
reduce uptake of energy efficient
equipment
– Split incentives (also known as principalagent problems)
– Information failures, including information
asymmetry
– Bounded rationality
Market Failures – Split Incentives
• Split incentives occur when one party pays another party for a
good or service but these parties have different incentives.
– Classic example is tenant-landlord situation – may apply to a
ventilation system in a new building.
– In SMEs failed fan units might be replaced by a contractor, who doesn’t
pay the energy bills. Likely to replace like-with-like as this reduces time
to select a replacement, reduces equipment and installation costs and
reduces the risk that the fan won’t operate effectively.
– Even if a firm has in-house expertise, the department which is
responsible for replacing the fan is unlikely to be the cost-centre for the
energy bill, and restoring production as quickly as possible is likely to
have a higher priority than saving energy.
– The design of new fan installations is often allocated to consultants, who
may have time and money constraints, and some rely on existing design
blueprints. Specifying a high efficiency model may waste time in
searching for suitable products and in convincing the client that this is a
better solution – higher first cost and the perceived risk of different
technology can militate against customer acceptance.
Market Failures - Information
• Information failures result when the customer does
not have access to the information which will allow them
to make an optimal decision regarding energy efficiency
– especially the case where equipment such as fans are
not ‘energy rated.
– Fan efficiency is usually presented in technical catalogues as
performance curves. These curves require quite a high level of
expertise to understand and apply properly to fan system design
and replacement fan selection.
– A proven government policy response to information failures is
the mandatory disclosure of energy performance, eg Energy
Rating Labels. However, fans used in industry face a much wider
range of applications and duty cycles and are not suited to this
type of simplified rating scheme.
– In addition, non-domestic fans are not purchased from the shop
floor, and so consumer energy labelling is likely to be ineffective.
Market Failures – Bounded Rationality
• Bounded rationality exists when, even though individuals have
sufficient information, they make suboptimal decisions – may resort
to rules of thumb or cultural/organisational norms.
– Suppliers have advised that consultants designing new systems often
use old blueprints as the basis of new installations.
– Fans are just one element of an overall fan system where they are
required to perform a specific function, and are chosen to meet the
operational requirements of the system. Energy efficiency is only a
secondary characteristic of a fan.
– Suppliers have noted that few customers consider the lifecycle costs of
their fan purchasing decisions, even though the cost of energy accounts
for around 67% of the overall lifecycle cost. In most cases consumers
focus only on the upfront cost.
– A key cause of bounded rationality is that energy represents only a small
percentage of the operating costs of most firms, and is ‘non-core’
business. In Australia, energy costs represent only 3% of total
expenditure in the industrial sector and 1.6% of expenditure in the
commercial sector.
8. Approaches to Improving Efficiency
• Australia and NZ have a history of implementing
efficiency regulations to drive improvements to
the efficiency of new products sold
– Energy Labelling often used for domestic products
– MEPS combined with a HEPS have been used for a
range of non-domestic products
• Part J5 of the Building Code of Australia sets out
maximum allowable fan power limits for air
conditioning systems and other mechanical
ventilation systems where the air flow rate is
greater than 1,000 L/s. These limits relate to the
efficiency of the overall system.
International Situation
Labelling
Scheme
Country / Region MEPS
Test Standard
Non-Domestic Fans
China
In place
Denmark
Philippines
In place, voluntary
Under
Consideration
USA
EU
ISO 5801
ISO 5801
ISO 5801
In place, voluntary
From 2013
ACMA
ISO 5801
Ventilation Systems
Denmark
In place, voluntary
Republic of Korea
In place, voluntary
Sweden
In place, voluntary
UK
In place
ISO 5801
European Eco-Design Directive
• Under the Energy Using Products Directive,
regulations commencing in 2013 will remove the
least efficient ventilation fans from the market.
• The regulations will be introduced in two stages:
– First tier: from 1 January 2013 is intended to target
the bottom 10% of the market in terms of efficiency;
– Second tier: from 1 January 2015 is intended to target
the bottom 30% of the market in terms of efficiency.
Scope of EU Fan Regulations
• The EU regulations are based on the efficiency of
the fan-unit (fan+motor), and cover fan-units
with input power ratings from 125 Watts – 500
kW for the following fan types:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Axial fans
Centrifugal radial bladed fans
Centrifugal forward curved fans
Centrifugal backward curved fans without housing
Centrifugal backward curved fans with housing
Cross flow fans
Mixed flow fans
Exclusions from the EU Fan Regulations
•
The EU regulations specifically exclude the following:
– Fans designed to operate in potentially explosive atmospheres
– Fans designed for emergency fire safety use only, at short-time duty
– Fans specifically design to operate at temperatures exceeding 100°C (gas being
moved) or 65oC (ambient air temperature for the motor if located outside of the
air stream) or at a temperature below -40°C (air being move or ambient
temperature for the motor)
– Fans designed with a supply voltage >1000 V AC or >1500 VDC
– Fans designed to operate in toxic or highly corrosive environments
– Fans integrated into products with a sole electric motor of 3 kW or less where the
fan is fixed on the same shaft used for driving the main functionality
– Fans integrated into certain products, including laundry and washer dryers with
a power input of 3 kW or less, and kitchen ventilation hoods with a fan power
input of less than 280 Watts
•
The requirements of the regulations will also not apply to fans which are
designed to operate:
– With an optimum energy efficiency at 8,000 rotations per minute or more;
– In applications in which the “specific ratio” is greater than 1.11; and,
– As conveying fans used for the transport of non-gaseous substances in industrial
process applications.
Standards used for EU Regulations
• ISO5801:2008 (equivalent to AS ISO 5801), a wellestablished standard for testing the efficiency of a fans,
will be the energy performance test standard used to
underpin the EU regulations.
• A joint US-UK led project has led to the creation of
ISO12759 Fans – Efficiency classification for fans.
– This standard sets out Fan Motor Efficiency Grade (FMEG)
curves, which specify minimum allowable efficiency of fan units
(fan+motor) at BEP point for different fan types over a range of
motor input powers
– Used to specify the MEPS levels
Fan Motor Efficiency Grade Curves
From ISO 12759
Other Approaches to Improve Efficiency
• While there are currently no regulatory
requirements for fan efficiency in Australia and
New Zealand, there are a number of government
programs to promote fan efficiency:
– Energy Efficiency Exchange website (developed as
part NFEE) provides access to a range of fact sheets
and best practice manuals relating to fan systems
produced by both Australian and US government
agencies
• Some white certificate programs are starting to
provide incentives for high efficiency fan units
– Victorian VEET Scheme now includes replacement of
existing refrigeration fan with high efficiency unit
Initial Assessment of Policy Options
•
•
•
•
Best practice programs help to address some information failures, but
don’t address split-incentives and bounded rationality. A key benefit of best
practice programs is that they cover the entire fan system.
Provision of financial incentives in conjunction with the best practice
programs is likely to significantly increase their impact, but would require a
large financial outlay.
Voluntary fan energy labelling is unlikely to be appropriate for nondomestic fans, as they face a wide variety of applications. It may be possible
to have a voluntary “high efficiency” fan certification based on ISO12759.
These schemes have similar drawbacks to best practice programs, in that
they don’t address split-incentives and bounded rationality. Further, their
coverage tends to be limited to certain suppliers and certain models.
MEPS combined with defined voluntary “high efficiency performance
standards” (HEPS) have been used in Australia. MEPS addresses split
incentives and bounded rationality, and partially addresses information
failures by limiting the market to products above a certain efficiency
threshold.
– Complementary HEPS helps to address information barriers by assisting
consumers to identify the most efficient products. It can also facilitate
government programs, such as rebates and white certificates.
Regulating Fan vs Fan-Unit
Issue
Regulating the fan unit (fan+motor)
Regulating the fan only
Alignment with
Australian
legislation
Feasible.
Current legislation relates to energy using
products only, and regulation of the fan only may
not be possible. The proposed Commonwealth
GEMS legislation would allow regulation of the
fan only.
International
alignment
Aligned with the EU approach, which would
minimise trade barriers for suppliers and
manufacturers.
Not aligned directly with the EU approach, and
likely to impose additional testing costs for
suppliers and manufacturers to demonstrate
compliance with MEPS levels.
Impact on fan
efficiency
Would not directly address the efficiency of the
fan. However, due to the larger scope of coverage
of MEPS there is the potential to drive greater
efficiency improvements.
Would directly address the efficiency of the fan,
and drive improvements to only the fan.
Establishing
MEPS
levels
Potentially more complicated, as E3 would need
to take into account the efficiency of the fan,
coupling and motor when establishing MEPS
levels. This would be less of an issue if Australia
adopted international (eg EU) regulatory levels.
More straight forward as E3 would only need to
consider the fan.
Alignment with
market trends
This is how majority of fans are sold, and there is
an increased trend towards integrating the fan
unit with a VSD. Also, testing would include all
fan-unit components, including outer casing and
motor which would give a more realistic
indication of performance in practice.
Most fans are sold to end-users with the fan
attached to a motor, so could make it more
difficult to verify compliance with MEPS levels.
Issue with Incorporated Fans
•
Any fan regulations could be deemed to apply to all fans within
scope regardless of their application or the extent to which they
are integrated into other products.
– While this would result in the widest possible coverage and potentially
the greatest impact, this could make identification and registration of
products difficult
•
Energy efficiency regulations could apply to the entire integrated
product (eg gas ducted heater), but the efficiency metric could
include the energy consumption of the fan.
– This would mean that any efficiency improvements to the fan would
contribute to improved energy performance of the product, but the
impact on fan performance may be small
•
Specific fan efficiency requirements could be included as part of
the MEPS specification of the product (eg gas ducted heater),
especially where fan energy consumption is significant.
– This would help to drive energy efficiency improvements to fans used in
key applications where they are integrated into a product.
9. Potential Impact of MEPS
• Two scenarios have been modelled to get a
preliminary assessment of impact:
– Scenario 1 is based on the approach currently being
implemented in Europe, with MEPS targeting the
least efficient 10% of fans introduced in 2013/14 and
made more stringent in 2015/16 so they target the
least efficient 30% of fans
– Scenario 2 is similar, but assumes that MEPS
targeting the least efficient 30% of fans is introduced
in 2013/14, with no further increase in stringency.
Modelling Approach
• Use estimate of installed stock 2009/10 to 2029/30 as
basis of stock model
– Use stock and assumed energy characteristics of fans to prepare
bottom-up estimate of fan energy use (and greenhouse
emissions)
– Annual sales of new fans is driven by growth in stock and
retirement of old units
– Assume average life of 15 years (50% failure) and normal
distribution with standard deviation of 10 years
– Split stock into 7 fan types based on EU categorisation
– Assume Aust stock has same BAU efficiency characteristics as
EU stock
– When MEPS implemented the average efficiency of new
products sold increases leading to energy and greenhouse
savings
Issues with Bottom-Up Modelling
• We have a high and low estimate for the fan
stock, so have modelled both a high and low
estimate of energy use
• Bottom up estimate of fan energy use is
considerably lower than the high level estimate
– This suggests that some underlying assumptions
regarding fan unit operating characteristics may not
be correct (eg average input power, average annual
opeating hours, average efficiency)
– Suggests that modelling is providigng a conservative
estimate of the likely impact
Assumed Fan Operating Characteristics
Fan type
Estimated
Market Share
Estimated
hourly fan load
(P x Q)
(kWh/h)
Typical Annual
Operating
hours
1
Wall mounted axial fan,
static pressure <= 300Pa
8.2%
0.240
2,340
2
Wall mounted axial fan,
static pressure > 300Pa
22.8%
0.494
2,340
3
Centrifugal, forward
curved with casing
12.5%
0.132
3,500
4
Centrifugal backward
curved without casing
3.9%
1.880
3,500
5
Centrifugal backward
curved with casing
4.3%
2.292
3,500
6
Centrifugal backwards
curved box fan
17.5%
0.111
2,000
7
Axial roof fan
30.8%
0.480
2,940
Based on EU data
Assumed Distribution of Fan Efficiencies
Cut
off
Fan Type
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
100%
40.0%
45.5%
37.5%
56.5%
65.0%
40.0%
52.5%
90%
35.5%
42.1%
34.1%
53.6%
62.8%
35.5%
46.9%
80%
33.7%
40.7%
32.7%
52.4%
61.8%
33.7%
44.6%
70%
32.2%
39.7%
31.7%
51.5%
61.1%
32.2%
42.8%
60%
31.0%
38.8%
30.8%
50.7%
60.5%
31.0%
41.3%
50%
30.0%
38.0%
30.0%
50.0%
60.0%
30.0%
40.0%
40%
28.9%
37.2%
29.2%
49.3%
59.5%
28.9%
38.7%
30%
27.7%
36.3%
28.3%
48.5%
58.9%
27.7%
37.2%
20%
26.3%
35.2%
27.2%
47.6%
58.2%
26.3%
35.4%
10%
24.5%
33.8%
25.8%
46.4%
57.2%
24.5%
33.1%
0%
20.0%
30.5%
22.5%
43.5%
55.0%
20.0%
27.5%
Based on EU data
Impact of MEPS on Efficiency of Average Fan
Sold
Fan Type
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Based on EU data
BAU
10% MEPS
(Scenario 1
2013/14)
30% MEPS
(Scenario 1,
2015/16)
(Scenario 2,
2013/14)
30.0%
31.7%
33.1%
38.0%
39.3%
40.3%
30.0%
31.3%
32.3%
50.0%
51.1%
52.0%
60.0%
60.9%
61.5%
30.0%
31.7%
33.1%
40.0%
42.2%
43.8%
Estimated Impact on Energy Use - High
15,000
800
Energy saving
700
14,000
600
500
12,000
400
11,000
300
Energy use
10,000
200
9,000
100
0
20
10
-1
1
20
11
-1
2
20
12
-1
3
20
13
-1
4
20
14
-1
5
20
15
-1
6
20
16
-1
7
20
17
-1
8
20
18
-1
9
20
19
-2
0
20
20
-2
1
20
21
-2
2
20
22
-2
3
20
23
-2
4
20
24
-2
5
20
25
-2
6
20
26
-2
7
20
27
-2
8
20
28
-2
9
20
29
-3
0
8,000
BAU
MEPS - Scenario 1
Estimate for Australia
MEPS - Scenario 2
Savings - Scenario 1
Savings - Scenario 2
MEPS Saving (GWh/Yr)
Energy Use (GWh/Yr)
13,000
20
10
-1
1
20
11
-1
2
20
12
-1
3
20
13
-1
4
20
14
-1
5
20
15
-1
6
20
16
-1
7
20
17
-1
8
20
18
-1
9
20
19
-2
0
20
20
-2
1
20
21
-2
2
20
22
-2
3
20
23
-2
4
20
24
-2
5
20
25
-2
6
20
26
-2
7
20
27
-2
8
20
28
-2
9
20
29
-3
0
Energy Saving (GWh/Yr)
Breakdown of Energy Savings - High
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Type 1
Estimate for Australia
Type 2
Type 3
Type 4
Type 5
Type 6
Type 7
Estimated Greenhouse Abatement - High
9.0
450
400
8.0
350
300
Greenhouse
Emissions
250
200
7.5
150
7.0
Greenhouse savings
100
50
0
20
10
-1
1
20
11
-1
2
20
12
-1
3
20
13
-1
4
20
14
-1
5
20
15
-1
6
20
16
-1
7
20
17
-1
8
20
18
-1
9
20
19
-2
0
20
20
-2
1
20
21
-2
2
20
22
-2
3
20
23
-2
4
20
24
-2
5
20
25
-2
6
20
26
-2
7
20
27
-2
8
20
28
-2
9
20
29
-3
0
6.5
BAU
MEPS - Scenario 1
Estimate for Australia
MEPS - Scenario 2
Savings - Scenario 1
Savings - Scenario 2
Greenhouse Savings (Kt/Yr)
Greenhouse Emissions (Mt/Yr)
8.5
Cost-Benefit Analysis – Assumed Costs
Fan Type
Initial
average cost
Average cost
– 10% MEPS
Initial
average cost
– 30% MEPS
1
Wall mounted axial fan,
static pressure <= 300Pa
AU$ 679
AU$ 746
AU$ 814
2
Wall mounted axial fan,
static pressure > 300Pa
AU$ 679
AU$ 746
AU$ 814
3
Centrifugal, forward curved
with casing
AU$ 971
AU$ 1,068
AU$ 1,165
4
Centrifugal backward
curved without casing
AU$ 3,880
AU$ 4,268
AU$ 4,656
5
Centrifugal backward
curved with casing
AU$ 1,795
AU$ 1,974
AU$ 2,154
6
Centrifugal backwards
curved box fan
AU$ 1950
AU$ 2145
AU$ 2340
7
Axial roof fan
AU$ 1810
AU$ 1991
AU$ 2172
Summary of Impact Analysis
MEPS Scenario 1
MEPS Scenario 2
2019/20
2029/30
2019/20
2029/30
221 to 341
481 to 744
246 to 380
496 to 767
$36.2 to
$55.9
$106.0 to
$164.1
$40.4 to
$62.4
$109.3 to
$169.1
Cumulative energy savings (GWh)
801 to
1,238
4,609 to
7,125
985 to
1,521
4,991 to
7,716
Greenhouse gas savings (kt CO2-e
p.a.)
167 to 258
266 to 412
187 to 288
274 to 424
Cumulative greenhouse gas savings
(Mt CO2-e)
0.6 to 1.0
3.0 to 4.7
0.8 to 1.2
3.3 to 5.1
NPV of savings (7%) discount rate
($M)
$37.7 to
$58.2
$343.0 to
$530.2
$44.5 to
$68.7
$369.4 to
$570.9
1.67
5.08
1.62
4.77
Electricity savings (GWh p.a.)
Electricity savings ($M p.a.)
Benefit-Cost ratio
10. Recommendations
• Preliminary modelling suggests that a MEPS based on
the EU approach could drive cost effective improvements
to the efficiency of new fans sold
• It is recommended that following consultation with
industry stakeholders, the feasibility of implementing
MEPS for non-domestic fans, based on the EU approach,
be formally tested through the development of a
Regulation Impact Statement (RIS)
• Industry feedback on the range of assumptions used in
the modelling presented in this Product Profile would
assist greatly with the preparation of a robust RIS
Key Questions for
Further Discussion
Scope of Focus on Fans
• Do fans within the 125 W to 500 kW power
range account for the majority of energy
consumption of non-domestic fans, and
are these the best focus for government
efforts to increase the energy efficiency of
fans?
• Is it reasonable to omit other fan
technologies, such as mixed flow and cross
flow fans, from the analysis?
Market Data
• Is the import (and export) data on non-domestic fans
accurate?
• Is the information and data on the local manufacture of
non-domestic fans accurate?
• Accuracy of the installed fan stock estimate and the
estimated level of sales
• Information on the installed fan stock in the agricultural
and power generation sectors
• Information on the average energy characteristics of fans
(input power, duty, efficiency) and spread of efficiencies
of products currently sold
• In particular, information on the breakdown by main fan
type, by end-use application (mining, manufacturing,
commercial and water industry) and by size (motor input
power) would assist with modelling.
Market Failures and Barriers
• Comment on the barriers and market
failures which may be hindering the
market uptake of higher efficiency fans
used in non-domestic applications, and
• The most appropriate policies for
addressing these to drive improvements in
the efficiency of the installed stock over
time
Possible Policy Options
• Stakeholders are invited to comment on possible
policy options for increasing the energy
efficiency of non-domestic fans in Australia
– If MEPS were introduced would you prefer Scenario 1
or Scenario 2
• Comment on the appropriate standards for
measuring the energy efficiency performance of
non-domestic fans is also welcome
Modelling Assumptions
• Comment on the key assumptions and data sources
which underlie “top down” modelling of energy used by
non-domestic fans
• Comment on the key assumptions and data sources
which underlie “bottom up” modelling of energy used by
non-domestic fans; in particular feedback on the
estimated size of the installed fan stock, and on the
energy performance parameters.
• Comment on the assumptions which have been used in
the cost-benefit analysis, in particular the price
premiums which have been assumed for the MEPS
compliant fans.
The Way Forward
Where to from here?
• Written submissions on Product Profile close
Friday 6 July, 2012
– Feedback from industry stakeholders welcome
– Feedback will be compiled and presented to E3
Committee for consideration
– E3 Committee will make a decision on whether or not
to proceed to prepare a RIS to test feasibility of
implementing MEPS
– May require some standards work, but Australian test
standard already exists and could adopt ISO standard
on efficiency grades
• Please send written submissions on the Product Profile
to:
Non-domestic fan profile
[email protected]
• Submissions close Friday 6 July, 2012.
• Can call Ian McNicol (Sustainability Victoria) to discuss:
Ph: (03) 8626-8772