Transcript Document
Water Spray Protection in the Wildland/Urban Interface: The Successes and Failures Joseph W. Mitchell, Ph.D. Mark V. Potter Regional Director M-bar Technologies & Consulting Ramona, CA [email protected] Country Fire Authority [email protected] Twitter: gipps_potzii November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 1 Introduction • • • • • Why external spray systems? Types of systems Science of water spray protection Design requirements Success and failures November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 2 About the presenters Joseph W. Mitchell, Ph.D. • • • Particle physics research (1981-1996) Wildland fire research (home ignition prevention, power line fires 2002-present) Published in Fire Safety Journal, Fire and Materials, Engineering Failure Analysis Mark Potter • • • Regional Director, CFA Gippsland Author of FPAA scholarship study on water spray protection for bushfires Represented AFAC for spray system standards development 3 Firewise principles • Manage vegetation and other flammable material in the home ignition zone to reduce radiant heat and prevent flame contact. • Construct and maintain structures to reduce the risk of piloted ignition from embers (firebrands). When is more than this appropriate? November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 4 Water spray justifications: • Redundancy: – Hidden vulnerabilities – Maintenance oversights • WUI issues: – Historical / vulnerable structure – Can’t control all home ignition zone • Security – Entrapment potential • Convenience November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 5 Water for Fire Control Cooling – Evaporation can cool 2.4 kJ/g Example: ¼ l/min ideally removes 10kW/m2 (Toaster ~ 3 kW/m2) FLAME and RADIANT HEAT Hydration of Fuels Wet fuels require extra energy to ignite EMBER ignition November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 6 Types of water sprays Distance from Fire Front Ember Attack (100s of meters) Flame Radiant Heat 12.5 kW/m2 ignition threshold usually < 50 m Light Water Spray 19kW/m2 Deluge (AS 5414) Much better: FUEL CLEARANCE! November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 7 Water spray design requirements • Sufficient water (independent supply) • Assume loss of electricity and other utilities • Sufficient water flow for purpose (either deluge or ember dowsing) • Flow for full duration of threat • All structure vulnerabilities covered • Wind-resilience of spray (extreme weather) • Spray system components protected THE CATASTROPHIC IS TYPICAL FOR MOST HOME LOSSES November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 8 How much water do you need? To put out a wildfire, a lot To protect a home against radiant heat and flame, a lot Cohen et al, 2004 – 13.1 kW/m threshold Windows are the most vulnerable Separation from fuels is preferable! November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 9 How much water do you need? AJB Photography To put out a match not so much. November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 10 How much water do you need? To put out a 10,000 matches not so much November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 11 Ember protection sprays Separate the problem of radiant heat & flame protection (answer: distance from fuel / vegetation management) from the problem of firebrand protection… November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 12 EMBERS ATTACK “How we cheated the flames of death” Gary Hughes • Australian Columnist • Black Saturday survivor (barely) • Had CFA training • Failed “Stay & Defend” “It comes at you like a runaway train. One minute you are preparing. The next you are fighting for your home. Then you are fighting for your life… But it is not minutes that come between. It's more like seconds. The firestorm moves faster than you can think, let alone react… They call it "ember attack". Those words don't do it justice… It is a fiery hailstorm from hell driving relentlessly at you. The wind and driving embers explore, like claws of a predator, every tiny gap in the house. Embers are blowing through the cracks around the closed doors and windows…” HIDDEN VULNERABILITY! The Australian Feb 9, 2009 November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 13 Ember ignition • Is stochastic – i.e. “random” • Mean number of ignitions M ≈ Flux * Vulnerable area * Probability of ignition per brand • Flux = embers per unit area per unit time • Ignition Probablility P ~ 1 – exp(-M) • Prevention: Remove vulnerable areas Reduce ignitability (wetting) Foote, et. al (Calfire & NIST) Trampolines – Highly variable ember density November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 14 Water-spray protection against ember attack • If spray density is high enough, brands can be directly extinguished. • Water accumulates on surfaces and around structures, creating a “moat”. • Spray & vapor can hydrate light fuels. Sensitive to wind disruption November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 15 Re-evaluation of Paint Fire data Ethan Foote thesis results on water spray Destroyed Survived Total Probability Structures without external sprinklers 32 148 180 Sprinklers before fire 4 17 21 0.89 Sprinklers during fire 1 37 38 0.01 Sprinklers after fire 1 33 34 0.01 Multivariate analysis found significance at >90% confidence level (but not 95%) November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 16 The Balance: • Water spray needs to be active during and after fire • Needs sufficient spray density Supply = Density X Area X Time November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 17 When to apply water defense Time Fire Approach Ember Attack Radiant Heat & Flame Light Water Spray Heavy Deluge November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 18 Area Sprays Your Water Supply vs. Geometry R 1/9 1/4 1 2R 3R Water density 2 drops as 1/R kKeep water close to home November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 19 Wind-Enabled Ember Dousing (WEEDS) CONCEPT: ACHIEVE WINDRESILIENT BRAND PROTECTION BY DIRECTING COARSE WATER SPRAY OUTWARD FROM THE STRUCTURE • The wind blows it back onto the structure • Spray accumulates where embers do • Low spray densities needed to protect from brands (as opposed to radiant heat) November 15, 2013 J.W. Mitchell – Fire Safety Journal 2006 Backyards and Beyond 2013 20 WEEDS design features • Low flow rate (~120 l/min) • Agricultural spray nozzles (2 mm mean droplet size) • 5000 US gl water tank (plus municipal supply) • 12 kW generator (propane) November 15, 2013 • 1.5 kW pump • 3-4+ hour protection window • Potential improvements: gravity feed, 10k gal tank, automated or remote triggering Backyards and Beyond 2013 21 Is it sufficient? • Crib experiments suggest 1.5 4.0 gm/m2sec is sufficient to extinguish cribs (reviews: Novozhilov et al., Grant et al.) • Simulation of droplet in wind md ud md g Cd Ad ud uwe ud uwe t • Used similar nozzle for droplet size distribution • Achieves extinguishment zone around the structure at nominal design November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 22 Wind resilience of spray • Results conservative – don’t take airflow into account • Overlap of spray patterns to 50 km/hr • 40% of spray onto roof / eaves at high wind speed November 15, 2013 Wind speed = 20 km/hr Backyards and Beyond 2013 23 Testing of system October 26, 2003 • • • • Cedar Fire Nominal operation Apparent success Structures lost on all adjacent properties • 60-70% loss rate / no professional fire protection • Forensic evidence of brands on property Not proof, but a case study (Fire Safety Journal, Sept. 06) November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 24 Alternative technologies: • Water sprays • Gels • Foam • Wraps November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 25 Technology Comparison Infrastructure & Cost Ease / Speed Water Usage Test / Clean-up Wind Duration Water Spray X + X + ? ? Gel + - - X - - Foam + - - X X X Wrap - X + + X + November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 26 Manual Activation + Simple + Reliable - Requires person (late evacuation or long duration) November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 27 Automatic Activation • Thermal detection – good for radiant heat / flame but not ember attack • Smoke – Where to set threshold? • Mobile / Satellite activation – great if you know where fire is and networks stay up General issue – small market, R&D insufficient to create guaranteed system November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 28 Warning: Don’t Use Thermally Triggered Sprinkler Heads! Mark Potter (CFA) 2007: • Advantage: Water at maximum heat load • Use ONLY for radiant heat exposure • Do NOT use for ember exposure November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 29 Mount Stromlo workshop Conventional spray head – external Heated windows shattered from spray Traditional Sprinkler Heads November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 30 Spray System Failures • Unprotected components • Component failures • No regular testing • Close vegetation • Insufficient duration November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 31 Black Saturday The 2009 Victoria Fires 173 deaths > 2000 homes lost November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 32 What is Known? • Good statistical data buried in data set • High failure rate for water spray systems due to component failures (Justin Leonard, CSIRO) • Overall positive assessment by Victoria Royal Bushfires Commission • Details in Fatality Reports November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 33 Victoria Royal Bushfire Commission Final Report “The raw data revealed that a much lower proportion of houses fitted with [bushfire] sprinkler systems were destroyed.” Also reduced severity: “‘If we didn’t have the sprinkler system, I believe we would have been incinerated in the house in less than two minutes. The sprinkler system bought us time and absorbed the “hit” of the firefront’” November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 34 Bushfire CRC Data Collection 1065 Homes Assessed CSIRO – Managed the survey/methods CFA – Assisted with analysis Much higher survival probability seen for structures with sprinklers BUT: Confounded with “Stay and Defend” and other variables. Needs further analysis. Stay & Defend 3.5X (Whittaker et. al., Journal of Wildland Fire, 2013) Needs additional work to extract meaningful interpretation November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 35 VBRC – Sprinklers NOT a Guarantee “The Commission also notes that there were examples of people who had installed sprinklers who died while sheltering in their homes during the 2009 fires. It therefore cautions that sprinklers should be seen as a supplement to other measures and, in particular, are not a substitute for active external defence of a property. Reliance on a mechanical system alone does not appear to be sufficient to provide a satisfactory level of protection.” November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 36 The VBRC Fatality Reports • Every person who died had their story told • Contains details of defensive measures, including water spray systems • Failure modes / Lessons learned November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 37 From the Stories: Of 173 fatalities, 40 had some sort of water spray protection. November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 38 From the Stories: Sprinkler Type • • • • November 15, 2013 Garden Roof Advanced Unknown Backyards and Beyond 2013 5 9 5 1 39 From the Stories: Sprinkler Activated • Yes • No • Unknown November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 8 2 10 40 From the Stories: Vegetation (Definitions not always clear) • Heavy • Heavy + Cleared • Cleared • Unknown November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 5 8 2 5 41 From the Stories: Failure Mode • Pump failure / inadequate • Wind – roof destroyed • Overwhelmed / flame contact • Extreme speed • Unknown • Structure Survived November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 3 3 2 3 8 1 42 Embers a smaller factor: “in comparison with other recent major fires, a much lower proportion of houses were damaged by embers only and a higher proportion of houses were damaged by direct flame contact— 20 per cent destroyed by embers only and 13 per cent by flame contact” Light water spray systems are most effective against embers, not heat. November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 43 How did “advanced” systems fail? • Wind – Roof Destroyed • Unknown 2 3 Wind damage was a factor in 13% or structure losses. LESSON – THIS APPLIES TO *ALL* DEFENSIVE MEASURES November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 44 AS 5414 – Bushfire Water Spray Systems • Australian Standard was developed in 2012 • First of its kind in the world • Aimed at ember attack situations • Protection against radiant heat up to 19 kW/m2 November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 45 AS 5414 – Bushfire Water Spray Systems • The installation should be preceded by an onsite evaluation. • Focuses water spray onto areas vulnerable to embers • Spray nozzle performance requirements established • 10 l/m2-min windows 5 l/m2-min other vulnerable surfaces November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 46 AS 5414 – Bushfire Water Spray Systems • Potential shortfalls: – 30 minute spray duration – Use of petrol pumps (heat/smoke sensitive) • Future knowledge needs: – – – – Automatic operation Spray performance under varying wind conditions Pump performance under fire conditions Water density requirements for ember attack only November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 47 Lessons: • Water spray systems are a tool, not a panacea • Effective where heat load is low • Couple with defensible space • All system components designed for fire & wind • Further research needed – optimal flow rates, reliable triggering, cost reduction November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 48 Thank You Slides available from: M-bar Technologies and Consulting Ramona, California www.mbartek.com [email protected] November 15, 2013 Backyards and Beyond 2013 49