Transcript Slajd 1

POLAND of Opportunities
Polish Privatisation Programme
The Israel Business Conference, December 2010
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Poland in a snapshot
Location: Central Europe
Capital: Warsaw
Population: 38.1 million
Currency: złoty (PLN)
Member of the European Union since 2004
8th
21st
Size:
largest economy in the EU,
largest economy globally(c,d)
GDP growth (Q3 of 2010): 4.2 % (a)
Unemployment rate (Q3 of 2010): 11.5 % (a)
Inflation rate (Q3 of 2010): 2.2 (a)
FDI inflow (Jan.-Sept. 2010): EUR 5.3 bn (b)
GDP growth in Q3 2010 in selected EU countries (a) (c)
Poland
4.2
Spain
Greece
(c) Eurostat
(b) IMF
2
UK
Slovakia Germany
4.1
2.8
1.5
0.2
-4.5
Source: (a) Polish Central Statistical Office
(b) National Bank of Poland
Portugal
3.9
Poland – attractive direction for investors
During the crisis year 2009
Poland was the only country
in EU to avoid recession
 In the City of London Corporation “2010 World Financial Centers” ranking, in the
category ‘regional financial centre’ Warsaw ranked higher than cities such as Moscow,
Budapest and Athens.
 WSE ranks 1st in the CEE region in terms of the number of listed foreign issuers (28).
 Warsaw is the sole city in the region which was listed in the TOP 20 most favourable
locations for investors (U.N. World Investment Prospectus Survey 2010.12); it also
ranked 2nd in the 2009 European Cities Monitor (Cushman&Wakefield) ranking.
September 2009
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Media about Polish Privatisation (1)
• ‘The country has become the EU’s largest building
site, thanks in large part to the €67 bn in structural
funds flowing into Poland during the 2007-2013 budget
cyckle. The signs of activity are visible everywhere, from
the south-easten border with Ukraine, site of the future
A4 highway linking the region to Germany, to the
outskirts of Warsaw, where a new bridge is being
thrown across the Vistula River’
Financial Times, Buoyant future hangs in the balance,
November 2010
• ‘Last year, Poland’s decision to cut its income – tax
rate, and the resultant economic stimulus, helped it
become the only European Union country to dodge
recession. But it also sowed the seeds of a
ballonooning deficit.’
The Wall Street Journal,
Poland’s Treasury seeks to Rebrand Warsaw,
October 2010
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Media about Polish Privatisation (2)
• ‘Die Aktienverkäufe in Warschau und die weiter steigende
Kurse waren nur möglich , weil in Polen ein Aktienfieber unter
den Privatanleger augebrochen ist und gleichzeitig
internationale Anleger das Land entdeckt haben. Dies
geschah, nachdem Polen im Jahr 2009 ein einziges Land in
Europa ein nennenswertes Wirtschaftswachstum von 1,7
Prozent aufweisen konnte. Analysten erwarten auch für das
kommende Jahr eine Fortsetzung mit Wachstumsraten von
möglicherweise mehr als 4 Prozent’’
Frankfurter
Allgemeine Zeitung ,Polen sieht sich als China Europas,
November 2010
• ‘Poland has been one of the bright spot in European ECM in
2010, with the country seemingly able to withstand to volatile
secondary markets that have let to many deals being
cancelled across the rest of EMEA’
International Financing Review,
Poland pays up,
November 2010
September 2009
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Upcoming events in Poland – the chance of success
►
EUR 67 bn(a) up to
2013
EU funds
inflow
Goverment
stimulus
►
Euro 2012
tournament
Balanced
guarantee-based
package worth
EUR 22.7 bn
EUR
adoption
►
Source:
Strategy, p. 116
– the Programme for National Roads Construction 2008-2012
c) Ministry of Infrastructure – Master Plan for the Polish Rail Transport until 2030 – Scenario 3 (optimistic)
b) Ministry of Infrastructure
PLN/EUR: PLN 4.02 as of 2nd December, 2010
Accelerates spending
and investment
decisions
Infrastructure
spending
Increased currency
stability
a) National Cohesion
►
►
Huge spending plans until
2012:9 (expressways,
highways,trains)
for roads EUR 30 bn(b)
for rail EUR 7.5 bn(c)
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Privatisation Plan for the years 2008-2011
Unique investment opportunities
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Privatisation Plan – key facts
The Privatisation Plan for 2008-2011 fulfills Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s
November 2007 inaugural commitment to increase the pace of privatisation
When:
Prepared by Minister of Treasury Aleksander Grad, the 4-year
privatisation acceleration program was adopted by
the Council of Ministers on April 22, 2008
One of the most ambitious privatisation plans in the world:
What:

offers flexible, various privatisation procedures adapted to specific company characteristics

envisages privatisation of 802 state companies from over 30 business sectors and producing
revenues of PLN 37 bn (USD 13.1 bn*). At the moment revenues have reached PLN 33.5 bn
(USD 11.7 bn*)
PLN/USD : average yearly exchange rate for 2008: PLN 2.41 and for 2009: PLN 3.12. For 2010 exchange rate set at PLN 2.97
* Calculation based on average exchange rate for 2008,2009 & 2010
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Privatisation Plan – key facts
Result:


Significant decrease of government presence in the economy
(The government‘s aim is to reach the level of 10% of public sector contribution to Polish economy)

bn (USD 13.1 bn*). At the moment revenues have reached PLN 33.5 bn
(USD 11.7 bn*)
Status:



Privatisation in figures (2010 YTD):
398 projects are being carried out
361 projects have been completed so far
privatisation revenues in 2010 PLN 26 bn (USD 8.75 bn)
Public sector contribution to Polish
GDP (a)
> 75%
25.8%
1989
2000
19.8%
2008
PLN/USD : average yearly exchange rate for 2008: PLN 2.41 and for 2009: PLN 3.12. For 2010 exchange rate set at PLN 2.97
* Calculation based on average exchange rate for 2008,2009 & 2010
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Privatisation plan - sector opportunities
Privatisation is being implemented in accordance with the government’s plans and strategies for each sector
Investment opportunities extend to a variety of companies:

selected for privatisation from over 30 sectors

located throughout the country

with different shareholding structures
Financial
Wide variety of companies
Petroleum
Power/Energy
Metallurgy
Chemicals
Metals
Defense
Machines
Shipbuilding
Electronics
Electrical Engineering
Freight and Forwarding
Transport
Construction and Materials
Rock Based Raw Materials
Sea Transport/Ports
Distilleries
Foods
Clothing and Clothing
Materials
Timber and Paper
Furniture
Health Resorts
Animal and Plant
Husbandry
Agriculture
Agricultural Products
Printing and Publishing
Mining - Coal
Tourism
Commerce
Service Companies
Mining -Lignite
Pharmaceuticals
Telecommunications
Enterprise Agencies
Others
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Privatisation revenues
Privatisation revenues 1991- 2010 in USD bn
8.85
8.56
4.35
3.34
2.13
0.16
0.25
0.52
0.86
0.06
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
2.30
2.22
1.22
1996
2.15
0.93
1997
1998
1999
1991-1996
2000
2001
2002
1.35
1.25
0.20
2003
2004
2005
2006
0.64
0.77
2007
2008
2009 Nov-10
2007-to date
1997-2006
Allocation of privatisation revenues *
5%
Privatisation revenues are allocated to
36%
Reprivatisation fund
15%
Restructuring fund
Demographic Reserve
fund
State Treasury fund
40%
2%
2%
Polish Science and
Technology fund
State budget
Source: Ministry of Treasury, data as of, October 13th 2010
PLN/USD: PLN 3.07 as of 2nd December, 2010
*According to Commercialisation and Privatisation Act
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Privatisation model - Trade sale
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Trade sale – overview
Addressed to trade investors as well as financial
investors
 the bulk of privatisation projects concern the
following industries transport (53), machines (34),
construction (24), food-procesing (24) and
chemicals (10)
 most companies are intended for privatisation in
the central part of Poland (15), and in the Silesia
region (9)
 since November 2007, most privatisation projects
have been implemented through negotiations (29
projects), public auction (24), public tender (22)
 public auction is the fastest privatisation
procedure
PLN/USD: PLN 3.07 as of 2 nd December, 2010
Trade sale: privatisation procedures
Publicly announced offer
Public tender
Negotiations undertaken on the
basis of a public invitation
Admission of the bid submitted by
an entity announcing the call
Publicly announced auction
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Trade investors taking part in Privatisation
Plan
Between April 2008 and October
2010 investors from 13 countries
acquired shares in 30 companies
for the total amount of over PLN 2
billion
FIN 1 transaction worth
USD 0.02 million
NED 4 transactions
totalling
USD 146.7 million
GBR 2 transactions
totalling
USD 14.9 million
LUX 3 transactions
totalling USD 1.0 million
GER 6 transactions
totalling USD 13.8
million
FRA 2 transactions totalling
USD 56.5 milion
USA: 3 transactions totalling USD
0.06 million)
ESP 1 transaction worth
USD 0.52 million
CAN:: 1 transaction worth USD
6.5 million
SWE 4 transactions
totalling USD 0.42 billion
HUN 1 transaction totalling
(USD 28.4 million)
AUT 3 transactions
worth USD 31.7 million
ISR: 6 transactions worth
(USD 25.7 million)
Source: a) Ministry of Treasury, transactions completed between 22 April 2008 and 31 August
2010 (excluding transactions concluded in the capital markets)
PLN/USD: PLN 3.07 as of 2 nd December, 2010
CYP 2 transactions totalling
USD 2.9 million
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Examples of trade sale transactions (1)
Pharmaceutics
Polfa Pabianice
Sold to Zakład Farmaceutyczny Adamed Pharma
(Polish pharmaceutical company)
Energy
PGE Zespół Elektrociepłowni Bydgoszcz (power plant)
Transaction worth: PLN 959 013, 36 (USD 312 382.08)*
Sold to a main shareholder PGE S.A.
PGE Elektrociepłownia Gorzów (power plant)
Transaction worth: PLN 10 585 157, 37 (USD 3 447 933.99)*
Future opportunities in sectors:
Health Resorts
Road transport
Real Estate
Machines
Chemicals
PLN/USD: PLN 3.07 as of 2nd December, 2010
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Examples of trade sale transations (2)
Road transport
PKS- passenger transportation companies
6 transactions totalling: PLN 77 million (USD 25 million)*
Sold to Israeli trade investor- Mobilis (subsidiary of Egged)
Egged, the leading public transport operator in Israel,
established in January 1933, when four public
transport companies were merged into on. Egged
provides about 55% of public transport services
throughout the country.
September 2009
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Privatisation model – Capital market
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Transactions on capital markets – overview
Largest privatisations in Poland conducted
through WSE(a)
Date
Company
Deal type
Sector
Size
USD m
Apr 2010
PZU
IPO
Insurance
2,628
Transactions on capital markets
(main market)
Nov 2004
PKO BP
IPO
Banking
2,476
Oct 2009
PGE
IPO
Energy
1,944
Initial Public Offering ( IPO)
Jun 2010
Tauron
IPO
Energy
1,372
Secondary Offering
(Follow-on Offering)
Nov 2010
PZU
ABB
Insurance
1,336
Oct 2010
PGE
ABB
Energy
1,297
Sep 2005
PGNiG
IPO
Oil & Gas
874
Nov 1999
PKN Orlen
IPO
Oil & Gas
801
Accelerated
BookBuilding(ABB)
Rights issue
Note: Blue colour shading indicates privatisation processes concluded over the last two years.
PLN/USD: PLN 3.07 as of 2nd December, 2010
* since November 2007 till December 2010
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Key transactions on capital markets
IPO of a leading
energy group
($830m), despite
challenging
market conditions
Nov-08
IPO of the largest
Polish energy group
( $2.1bn). Ranked
as the largest IPO
in Europe for 2009.
Jun-09
IPO of the leading
thermal coal miner
($166m).
Reopening of IPO
market in Europe
Nov-09
Rights issue of
PKO BP, the
largest Polish bank
by assets ($1.6bn).
Opening of rights
issue market for
financial
institutions in
Poland
ABB of the
leading global
copper
producer: 10%
of MoT shares
($723m)
Jan-10
Second stage of
privatisation. Sale of
16.05% MoT shares
on the WSE through
Fully Marketed Offer
($379m )
Feb-10
Sale of 10% of
shares of
leading oil&gas
company
through ABB
on WSE ($142m)
Mar-10
Completion of
privatisation
through sale of
46.7% shares
through ABB
($395m)
IPO of Poland’s leading
insurance company
($2.7bn ). The largest
IPO in Europe since
2007. Largest ever IPO
in CEE region
Apr-10
May-10
ABB of a 42%
stake sold by
the MoT and
state bank BGK
($119m)
Sale of 10% of
shares (almost
$1.4 bn). The
biggest ABB
transaction in the
history of capital
markets in Poland
Jun-10
IPO of the Warsaw
Stock Exchange –
leading European
stock exchange.
First listing- Nov.
9th. ($424 million)
Aug-10 Oct-10 Nov-10
A 51.6% stake of
the second largest
utility company in
Poland was floated
on the WSE on
30 June ($1.3 bn)
The remaining
stake in TP S.A., a
telecommunications
company was sold
on the WSE on
5 August 2010
($292m*)
Offered to US investors
*PLN/USD: PLN 2.83 as of 19 October, 2010
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Privatisation - future opportunities on
capital market
PKO BP Bank
the leader of the Polish banking sector.
In addition to its core banking activity
PKO BP offers specialised services, i.a.
various financial products, leasing
funds, investment
fund units, electronic payment
services – it was listed on the WSE in
2004
PZU – insurance
Poland's largest insurance group;
leading company providing life
and non-life insurance. The
Company was floated on the
Warsaw Stock Exchange in May
2010. It was the 2nd largest IPO in
Europe in 2010 YTD
BGZ Bank
one of the leading banks on the
Polish market, providing services
for the agriculture/farming and
food processing sector, as well as
for inhabitants of rural areas and
small towns. IPO of the company is
planned for 2011-2012
LOTOS- petroleum concern
activity in the field of crude
oil extraction and processing
as well as distribution and
sale of wide range of
petroleum products. The
deadline for submitting
written replies expires on 4
February 2011
DIPSERVICE, TON AGRO – real estate
lease of properties from companies’
portfolio, lease of office space in the
Warsaw area; The companies also
acquire properties and prepare them
for commercial investment purposes.. It
is expected that the new real estate
holding, comprising i.a. these
companies will make a debut on the
WSE in 2011
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Warsaw
Warsaw as a regional Financial Center
of Central – Eastern Europe
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Warsaw - Regional Financial Centre
 Warsaw is Poland’s business capital and one of
the largest and most important urban centers in
Central and Eastern Europe
Number of new companies to establish their
presence in the cities within the next five years (b)
 As stated in 2010 World Financial Centers ranking
prepared by City of London Corporation, Warsaw
has surpassed cities like Moscow, Budapest and
Athens as a regional financial centre
Moscow 35
 Owing among others to the privatisation
activities of the Ministry of Treasury, the Warsaw
Stock Exchange is doing well, and therefore the
largest global financial institutions cannot
afford not to have a local office in Warsaw.
J.P. Morgan, HSBC, BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse,
UBS, Deutsche Bank, Master Card, Citigroup,
Nomura, ING, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, and
Morgan Stanley.
 Viewed as regional safe haven Poland maintained
high level of FDI inflow, which in 2009 amounted
to EUR 8.4bn(d), the highest in CEE. In H2 2010, the
inflow of FDIs exceeded EUR 5.3bn(d). It is
forecasted that the FDI inflow in the whole of 2010
will exceed EUR 10bn(e).
(a) Based on FT Global 500
(b) 2009 European Cities Monitor report by Cushman & Wakefield
(c) OECD Factbook 2009
(d) National Bank of Poland
(e) Ministry of Economy & PAIiIZ forecasts
PLN/USD: PLN 3.07 as of 2 nd December, 2010
Warsaw 36
London 25
Paris 27
Bucharest 30
Foreign direct investment (FDI) for the period of
1998-2007 (in USD billion*) (c)
88
75
58
40
14
Poland
Austria
Czech Republic
Hungary
Greece
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Foreign companies & foreign investors
at Warsaw Stock Exchange
Foreign
companies

Warsaw Stock Exchange lists many companies from the CEE region, such as:
 Kernel (Ukraine's largest vertically integrated agro-industrial company)
 New World Resources (producer of coal, the largest hard coal mining company in the Czech
Republic)
 Astarta Holding (an agro-industrial holding and one of the leaders of the Ukrainian sugar
sector)
 CEZ (leader on the Central and Southeastern European electricity market)
 Asseco Slovakia (co-founder of international Asseco Group, the fifth largest IT Group in
Europe)
Break-down of equity turnover at WSE (in %)(a)
Foreign
investors
35
33
39
34
37
31
30
2006
2007
Foreign
( a)
Investors in stock exchange turnover H1 2010 - presentation
18
27
37
43
36
2008
2009
Institutional
20
33
47
H1 2010
Individual
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WSE is attractive for the world’s top tier
international financial institutions
 Currently WSE has 28 domestic & 20 foreign
Exchange Members including Credit Suisse,
Goldman Sachs, HSBC Bank, J.P Morgan, Merrill
Lynch, Societe Generale, UBS, Citigroup, Deutsche
Bank(a)
Global investment banks present in Warsaw:
 Poland becomes increasingly important for the
foreign financial institutions as evidenced, among
others, by the following initiatives:





(a)
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In May 2010 Credit Suisse re-opened its
brokerage office in Warsaw
Goldman Sachs plans to open its office in
Warsaw in the second half of 2010 following the
motion approval by FSA (Financial Services
Authority)
Citigroup opened an investment banking office
in May 2010
In May 2010 UBS announced plans to
strengthen its presence in Poland by expanding
investment banking operations
Morgan Stanley announced plans to open an
office in Warsaw by the end of 2010 once
regulatory approvals are secured. On 12 August
2010 Morgan Stanley became the latest
member of the WSE
WSE internet portal, 28 September 2010
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Investor Relations & Contact information
Investor Relations Centre
Investor Relations
website
www.msp.gov.pl/en
Ministry of Treasury of the Republic of Poland
Tel. (+48 22) 695 90 01
Tel. (+48 22) 695 90 02
Fax (+48 22) 629 98 38
E-mail: [email protected]
This presentation contains only introductory information which does not constitute any invitation or offer to sell, invest
or trade, nor does it constitute any invitation to place any offer to purchase, invest or trade the securities.
The information presented herein is up to date as on 8December 2010.
This presentation can be distributed only as a complete document. The Ministry of Treasury of the Republic of Poland does not
recommend services of any organisation using this document as part of their informational and advertising activities.
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