Transcript No Slide Title

Energy matters
because it ...

defines the modern
technological society;

is essential for economic
growth; and therefore

governs our continued
economic well being.
Average
Average daily
daily per
per capita
capita energy
energy use
use at
at
the
the various
various stages
stages of
of human
human cultural
cultural
development
development
Food
Farming &
Industry
Home
Transportation
Industrial
societies
Advanced agricultural societies
Early agricultural societies
Hunter-gatherer
societies
Primitive
societies
0
20
40
60
Daily per capita consumption in kcal
80
Economic prosperity and energy
consumption are closely correlated
Energy Consumption
(terrajoules) (E)
100
USA
Russia
10
1
0.1
0.01
India
Brazil
France
Italy
U.K.
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
Spain
Netherlands
Australia
Sweden
Norway
Swtizerland
Singapore
0.1
1
China
Germany
Japan
10
GDP (PPP) in trillion US $ (Y)
BusinessWeek
February
24, 2003
Why 2010?

Oil is the dominant source of
energy, and is likely to remain
so for the foreseeable future,

but faces the ubiquitous threat
of exhaustibility — analysis of
Hubbert’s peak suggests that
annual production would start
falling by 2004-10.
2000
Renewables
(6%)
Nuclear
(9%)
Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas
and coal) are likely to remain
the dominant source of
energy world-wide
Oil (43%)
Coal
(21%)
Renewables
Nuclear (4%)
(7%)
Natural
Gas (21%)
Coal
(18%)
World
Energy Use,
by Source
2020
Oil (43%)
Natural
Gas (28%)
eia.doe.gov
U.S. Energy Consumption History and Outlook
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/ep/source.html
Quadrillion Btu
50
History
Projection
40
30
20
10
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Quadrillion BTUs
World Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1970-2020
Quadrillion Btu
Energy Consumption in the Developing World,
by Region, 1970-2020
Sources: 1995-1999: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 1999.
DOE/EIA-0219(99) (Washington, DC, February 2001). Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection
System (2002).
'THE END OF THE
OIL AGE is in
sight,' said the
petroleum
geologist M. King
Hubbert.... If
present trends
continue, Dr.
Hubbert estimated,
production would
peak in 1995 -- the
deadline for
alternative forms
of energy that
must replace
petroleum in the
sharp drop-off that
follows.
Oil, the Dwindling Treasure
M. King Hubbert
National Geographic, June, 1974
King Hubbert is best known for his startling prediction, first made
public in 1949, that the fossil fuel era would be of very short
duration. ("Energy from Fossil Fuels: Science, Feb 4, 1949”). His
subsequent prediction in 1956 that U.S.oil production would peak in
about 1970 and decline thereafter was scoffed at then but has since
proved to be remarkably accurate. In a subsequent article in the
Scientific American (1971), he argued that 80% of the world’s petroleum
reserves
will be
World
exhausted
reserves =
by the
2.1 trillion
year
barrels
2029-35.
World
reserves =
1.3 trillion
barrels
Hubbert’s Peak:
The Impending World Oil Shortage
by Kenneth S. Deffeyes (Princeton University Press, 2001)
Were the energy concerns of the past year a preview of
everyone’s future? Will gas lines in the coming years make those
of 1973 look short? Is the present chaos in oil prices the leading
edge of a more serious crisis that will rock national economies
around the world? According to Kenneth Deffeyes, a geologist
with extensive personal experience in the oil industry, the answer
to all of these questions is yes. World oil production is peaking
and will start to fall for good sometime during this decade.
The geophysicist M. King Hubbert was amazingly accurate when he predicted, in 1956, that U.S. oil production
would peak in 1970. That actually happened in 1971!
Using the same methods, Dr. Deffeyes shows that the peak
in world oil production is likely to occur by 2004-10. What
is worse, he argues, is that long-term mitigation efforts like
alternate energy sources may not get launched in time to
Jeff Parker
Milt Priggee, Spokane
No need to
worry about
petroleum
reserves …
Our latest
sport utility
vehicle is
equipped
with its own
drilling rig!
Mike Thompson — The Detroit Free Press
How Much Oil Do
We Really Have?
Resource availability is a
function of


Technology, and the
Supply-Demand Equilibrium
Resources
Exhaustible or Nonrenewable
Fossil
Fuels
Metallic
minerals
1. Hydrocarbons
(Oil, Natural
Gas)
2. Coal
Perpetual or Renewable
Wind,
tides,
flowing
water
Nonmetallic
minerals
Direct
solar
energy
Potentially renewable
Biodiversity
Fertile
soil
Fresh
water
Fresh
air
How Geologists Find Oil
Oil forms from the decomposition
of shallow marine microorganisms.
Therefore, geologists look for



Reservoir Rock — Permeable
Source Rock — Organic Rich
Oil Trap — Oil “Pools” Collect
in Traps
Don Wright — The Palm Beach Post
Oil Traps
Oil is lighter than water, and therefore rises towards the surface, e.g., an anticlinal trap.
Axis of
Syncline
Axis of
Anticline
Limb
Axial Plane
Common oil traps:
 Anticlines
 Faults
A
C
 Salt domes
 Stratigraphic
B
D
The depletion curve for a typical
nonrenewable resource
Depletion Time (TE) =
The time when 80% of
the resource is used up
80%
Time
Fraction used up
=
Fraction remaining
f
1-f
f
Write
= f1 = eA+Bt
1-f
Then
y = ln f1 = A + Bt
where f1 are the observed data as function of time (t),
so that the constants A and B can be found by linear
regression analysis.
Logistic or Hubbard curves for the U.S. oil
output and prospects using
4
1995 resource estimate
1986 resource estimate
3
2
1
Actual Production
0
1950
2000
2050
4
Cumulative production as the
share of 1986 resource estimate
1.00
0.75
3
Actual
production
0.50
2
Cumulative
production as 0.25
the share of 1995
resource estimate
1
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
0.00
2050
Cumulative share produced
Annual production (billion barrels)
U.S. oil production (1857-1995)



News Release: March 22, 2000
AAPG Distinguished Lecture
Downloadable WEP data summary
and Map
Current Current
Reserves Consumption
Petroleum 1.1 TBO 0.028 TBO/yr
Natural gas 0.8 TBOE 0.014 TBOE/yr
Total 1.9 TBOE 0.044 TBOE/yr
Already Consumed:
Total
Reserves
3.0 TBO
2.6 TBOE
5.6 TBOE
1.0 TBOE
USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (excluding U.S.)
http://www.usgs.gov/public/press/public_affairs/press_releases/pr1183m.html
World’s Oil and Natural
Gas Endowment
Oil:
Undiscovered (conv.)
Reserve growth (conv.)
Remaining resources
Cumulative production
Total
Natural Gas:
Undiscovered (conv.)
Reserve growth (conv.)
Remaining resources
Cumulative production
Total
Total Oil & Natural
Gas Endowment:
U.S.
83 BBO
76 BBO
32 BBO
171 BBO
362 BBO
Non-U.S.
649 BBO
612 BBO
859 BBO
539 BBO
2,659 BBO
World
732 BBO
688 BBO
891 BBO
710 BBO
3,021 BBO
88 BBOE
59 BBOE
29 BBOE
142 BBOE
318 BBOE
778 BBOE
551 BBOE
770 BBOE
150 BBOE
2,249 BBOE
866 BBOE
610 BBOE
799 BBOE
292 BBOE
2,567 BBOE
680 BBOE
4,908 BBOE
5,588 BBOE
Hubbard curves for world petroleum output and
prospects assuming resource estimates of
60
3.0 x 1012 barrels
2.2 x 1012 barrels
1.4 x 1012 barrels
40
20
Actual
Production
0
1900
2000
2100
If the oil supplies are facing an
immediate decline then we can
be expected to observe

an appreciable drop in their
reserves, and

a concomitant rise in their
prices.
The World Crude Oil Consumption History Since 1971
Proved
Reserves
BBO
Annual Cumulative Number of
Production Production
Years
BBO
BBO
Remaining
Proved
Annual Cumulative Number of
Reserves Production Production
Years
BBO
BBO
BBO
Remaining
1971
641.80
18.40
102.03
34.9
1987
896.50
21.70
445.63
41.3
1972
672.70
19.30
121.33
34.9
1988
916.60
22.70
468.33
40.4
1973
635.00
21.10
142.43
30.1
1989
1011.80
23.20
491.53
43.6
1974
720.40
21.20
163.63
34.0
1990
1009.20
23.70
515.23
42.6
1975
666.10
20.10
183.73
33.1
1991
1000.90
23.10
538.33
43.4
1976
652.00
21.70
205.43
30.0
1992
1006.80
23.40
561.73
43.1
1977
653.70
22.90
228.33
28.5
1993
1009.00
23.40
585.13
43.1
1978
649.00
23.00
251.33
28.2
1994
1009.30
23.50
608.63
43.0
1979
649.20
24.00
275.33
27.1
1995
1016.90
23.80
632.43
42.8
1980
654.90
22.80
298.13
28.7
1996
1036.90
24.60
657.03
42.2
1981
678.20
21.60
319.73
31.4
1997
1040.00
26.22
683.25
39.7
1982
677.40
20.50
340.23
33.0
1998
1042.00
26.75
710.00
39.0
1983
677.70
20.30
360.53
33.4
1999
1044.00
26.22
736.22
39.8
1984
707.20
20.80
381.33
34.0
2000
1046.20
27.19
763.41
38.5
1985
707.60
20.60
401.93
34.4
2001
1050.00
27.18
790.59
38.6
1986
703.10
22.00
423.93
32.0
2002
Proved
Reserves
BBO
Annual
Production
BBO
Cumulative
Production BBO
Number of
Years
Remaining
Proved
Reserves
BBO
Annual
Production
BBO
Cumulative
Production BBO
Number of
Years
Remaining
1971
641.80
18.40
102.03
34.9
1987
896.50
21.70
445.63
41.3
1972
672.70
19.30
121.33
34.9
1988
916.60
22.70
468.33
40.4
1973
635.00
21.10
142.43
30.1
1989
1011.80
23.20
491.53
43.6
1974
720.40
21.20
163.63
34.0
1990
1009.20
23.70
515.23
42.6
1975
666.10
20.10
183.73
33.1
1991
1000.90
23.10
538.33
43.4
1976
652.00
21.70
205.43
30.0
1992
1006.80
23.40
561.73
43.1
1977
653.70
22.90
228.33
28.5
1993
1009.00
23.40
585.13
43.1
1978
649.00
23.00
251.33
28.2
1994
1009.30
23.50
608.63
43.0
1979
649.20
24.00
275.33
27.1
1995
1016.90
23.80
632.43
42.8
1980
654.90
22.80
298.13
28.7
1996
1036.90
24.60
657.03
42.2
1981
678.20
21.60
319.73
31.4
1997
1040.00
26.22
683.25
39.7
1982
677.40
20.50
340.23
33.0
1998
1042.00
26.75
710.00
39.0
1983
677.70
20.30
360.53
33.4
1999
1044.00
26.22
736.22
39.8
1984
707.20
20.80
381.33
34.0
2000
1046.20
27.19
763.41
38.5
1985
707.60
20.60
401.93
34.4
2001
1050.00
27.18
790.59
38.6
1986
703.10
22.00
423.93
32.0
2002
Malcolm
Mayes,
Edmonto
n, Alberta,
Canada -The
Edmonton
Journal.
4.0%
$50
3.5%
$40
3.0%
$30
2.5%
$20
2.0%
$10
1970
1980
1990
2000
Fraction of Proved
Reserves Used (per year)
Real Price of Crude Oil
(per barrel)
Prices would rise if the supplies fall, relative to
demand. The correlation of oil prices with the
extraction rate has been rather weak, however,
and points more to market manipulation than to
free market economics.
...and so are economic prosperity
and carbon emmissions
3
USA
1
China
Russia
0.3
Japan
Germany
Ukraine
Poland
0.1
Australia
India
Canada
U.K.
Kazakstan
Italy
France
South
Brazil
North
South
Africa
Mexico
Korea
Iran Korea
0.03
0.03
0.1
0.3
1
3
GDP (PPP) in trillion US $
10
Quadrillion BTUs
World Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2020
Thousand BTUs per 1997 GDP$
World Energy Intensity by Region, 1970-2020
Joe Heller — The Green Bay Press-Gazette, Wisconsin
Brian Duffy — The Des Moines Register
http://www.bp.com/company_overview/technology/frontiers/fr04aug02/fr04hydrogen.asp
WITHOUT NEW POLICIES:

Oil Consumption Will
Keep Growing
… As U.S. Dependence On
Imports Increases


… Transferring Wealth To
The Middle East

CURBING AMERICA’S
OIL ADDICTION
The U.S. can’t achieve energy
dependence anytime soon — nor
is it necessary. These steps will
reduce our vulnerability to oil
shocks and other political
developments in the Middle East.
They also will strengthen U.S.
industries and reduce carbon
emissions linked to global
warming.
Thank You!
Oceans as the energy
reservoir
Already, about one-third of oil comes
from the oceans, advances in drilling
technology will increase that.
 Other ocean-based energy sources
include

– Methyl hydrate gel
– Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion
(OTEC) or thermocline
– Kelp farming for methane
– Tides, Waves etc.
http://www.nrel.gov/otec/resource.html

The nature of the problem
Why Energy? Why 2010?

Sources of Energy
Fossil Fuels (hydrocarbons, coal)
Nuclear Energy, Other Sources

The Hubbard Curve
The exhaustibility of world’s hydrocarbon
reservoir, Reserves versus Resources

World Petroleum Reserves
U.S., OPEC, Other Deposits, Off-Shore
Sources

The Quest for Alternatives
John Trever, Albuquerque Journal
Wishes?
Wishes?
No.
No. You
You have
have
three
three options
options …
…
walk,
walk, run
run or
or empty
empty
your
your bank
bank
account.
account.
Dick Locher, Chicago Tribune
Patrick Chappatte: Le Temps, Geneva
Adrian Raeside — The Victoria TimesColonist
Dwane Powell — Raleigh News & Observ
Bruce MacKinnon — the Halifax Herald, Nova Scotia, Canada
Larry Wright — Detroit News
Gary Varvel — The Indianapolis Star-News