Transcript Pollution Impact on Agriculture - Sachin Ghude

Impact of surface ozone on agricultural crop yield reductions and
economic damage in India under present emission scenario
Sachin D. Ghude
Chinmay Jena,
D.M.Chate
G. Beig
G. Pfister
V. Ramanathan
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Scripps Institute of Oceanography, UCSD, San Diego
Tropospheric ozone
Ozone (O3) is a highly reactive gas.
Main Drivers
Formed primarily from photochemical reactions between two major
classes of air pollutants, volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen
oxides (NOx).
What do we know about ozone Impact on vegetation and ecosystem?
 Damage to leaf injure

Growth and yield reduction
 Reduce carbon uptake by metabolizing
less CO2 (indirect global Warming)
 Reduces carbon flow from atmosphere to
Fluorescence imaging: soybean plant
responses to elevated levels of ozone
(From Kim, et al., 2001).
roots and reduces nitrogen fixation in soil
(nitrogen runoff)

Reduce canopy evapotraspiration and soil
water depletion and may increase sensible
heat near the surface
Adams et al., 1989, adapted by Chameides et al., 1999
Agriculture
is broadest economic sector,
plays a significant role in socio-economic
fabric.
With
only 2.3% share in world’s total land
area, India has to ensure Food security of its
1.2 billion population.
National Food Security Bill.
 Ensure availability of
sufficient food
grains for domestics demand and
 access
to adequate quantity of
subsidies food for 820 million people
Ghude et al., J. Atm. Chem, 2009, Ghude et al., JGR, 2013
General outline of the different steps involved in the data analysis for estimate
crop production loss
Meteorology
Dist wise
Crop
production
Emission
Grided (CP)
Crop
production
WRF-Chem
(Hourly ozone)
Dist wise
sowing dates
AOT40
RYL
(a*AOT40)
Grided
Crop production loss
(CPL)
Total
Loss
(sum CPL)
Soybeans
Cotton
Wheat
Rice
(a=0.0113) (a=0.0151) (a=0.163) (a=0.0445)
CPL=RYL/(1-RYL) x CP
Mills et al. 2007, corrected AOT40 for offset
Dingenen et al., 2009
Economic
loss
WRF-Chem Simulation for Year 2005
Domain
: South Asia (0 - 45° N, 55 -110 ° E)
Period
: One Year ( 2005, Hourly simulations)
Resolution
: 55 km x 55 km
Meteorology
: NCAR NCEP/FNL
Gas Ph. Chem
: MOZART
Aero Ph. Chem
: GOCART
Boundary Cond.
: MOZART-4 (updated every 6-h)
Photolysis
:Madronich F-TUV
Emissions
: INTEX-B (A Priori) (For NOx our top down)
Fire Emission
: NCAR Fire Inventory (FINN) (plume rise)
Biogenic
: MEGAN (online)
Comparison between observed and simulated NOx over India for different
emission estimate and respective surface ozone distribution (for Jan-2005)
General outline of the different steps involved in the data analysis for estimate
crop production loss
Meteorology
Dist wise
Crop
production
Emission
Grided (CP)
Crop
production
WRF-Chem
(Hourly ozone)
Dist wise
sowing dates
AOT40
RYL
(a*AOT40)
Grided
Crop production loss
(CPL)
Total
Loss
(sum CPL)
Soybeans
Cotton
Wheat
Rice
(a=0.0113) (a=0.0151) (a=0.163) (a=0.0445)
CPL=RYL/(1-RYL) x CP
Mills et al. 2007, corrected AOT40 for offset
Dingenen et al., 2009
Economic
loss
Crop Yield for various crops during 2005
Source: Special data dissemination standard-Directorate of economics and statistics
(SDDS-DES), Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.
General outline of the different steps involved in the data analysis for estimate
crop production loss
Meteorology
Dist wise
Crop
production
Emission
Grided (CP)
Crop
production
WRF-Chem
(Hourly ozone)
Dist wise
sowing dates
AOT40
RYL
(a*AOT40)
Grided
Crop production loss
(CPL)
Total
Loss
(sum CPL)
Soybeans
Cotton
Wheat
Rice
(a=0.0113) (a=0.0151) (a=0.163) (a=0.0445)
CPL=RYL/(1-RYL) x CP
Mills et al. 2007, corrected AOT40 for offset
Dingenen et al., 2009
Economic
loss
Simulated daytime (> 50 W/m2 global radiation ) mean surface ozone concentration
Kharif
(Cotton, Rice & Soybeans)
Rabi
(Wheat & Rice)
Wheat production and loss (Rabi) during 2005
Production : 71 MT
Loss : 3.5 (± 0.8) MT
Rice production and loss (Kharif + Rabi) during 2005
Production : 95.1 MT
Loss : 2.1 ( ± 0.8) MT
Soyabean and cotton production and loss (Kharif) during 2005
Production : 8.6 MT
Production : 3.3 MT
Loss : 0.23 (± 0.16) MT
Loss:0.17 (±0.10) MT
Aggregated reduction for top ten wheat and rice producing sates in India
Wheat loss is greatest in Maharashtra (17%)
Punjab and Haryana (< 1%)
Rice loss grates in Punjab (8%)
Impact of 100% cuts in anthropogenic NOX and VOCs emissions
Wheat
100% VOcs cuts results in 28% decrease
(1.7 MT saved)
100% NOx cuts results in 93% decrease
(98% for rice and 90% for wheat) (5.2 MT saved)
Rice
Estimated Economic Loss (year 2005) due to ozone damage
Fraction loss
(%)
Economic
damage
(billion USD)
0.23 (±0.16)
2.7 (±1.9)
0.06 (±0.12)
3.3
0.1 (±0.10)
5.3 (±3.1)
0.07 (±0.04)
Wheat
71
3.5 (±0.8)
5.0 (±1.2)
0.62 (±0.15)
Rice
95.1
2.1(±0.8)
2.1(±0.9)
0.54 (±23)
Commodities
Production
(million tone)
Loss
(million tone)
Soyabean
8.6
Cotton
Total Economic Loss : 1.29 (± 0.47) billion USD2005
Conclusion:
Nationally aggregated relative yield loss of wheat, Rice, Cotton and Soybeans
due to high O3 exposure totals 5.6 million tons amounting ~1.3 billion
USD2005 Economic loss.
This loss is about double the about of wheat exported yearly or 50% of the
rice exported annually.
The estimated economic loss due O3 induced yield loss alone in India is half
of the estimated economic loss due to crop globally caused by global
warming.
Loss of 5.6 million tons of wheat and rice could have fed 94 million
beneficiary under the provision of national food security bill.
NOx emission cut could effectively mitigate ozone-induced production losses
and significantly crop production output.
Tropospheric ozone
Ozone (O3) is a highly reactive gas.
Main Drivers
is formed primarily from photochemical reactions between two major classes of air
pollutants, volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx)
Many people mistakenly believe that
tropospheric ozone concentrations are
high only in major urban areas. It is also
formed in smaller cities it is transported
hundreds of miles downwind from where
it is created to affect ambient air quality
in other urban and rural areas
Studies in open-top field chambers have
repeatedly verified that flecking,stippling,
bronzing and reddening on plant leaves
are classical responses to ambient levels
of ozone. Plants grown in chambers
receiving air filtered with activated
charcoal to reduce ozone concentrations
do not develop symptoms that occur on
plants grown in nonfiltered air at ambient
ozone concentrations. Foliar symptoms
shown on this web site mainly occurred
on plants exposed to ambient
concentrations of ozone
ozone exposure indices
Seasonal daytime mean for 7 hours (M7)
Seasonal daytime mean for 12 hours (M12)
Accumulated daytime ozone concentration above a threshold of 40 ppbv
AOT 40 (Accumulation exposure over threshold of 40 ppb) is an exposure-plant response index
function set by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN-ECE) and US-EPA.
It is calculated as the sum of differences between the hourly averaged O3 concentration and the
threshold value of 40 ppb for each hour (radiation > 50 W m-2) that the averaged O3 concentration
exceeds 40 ppb.
n
AOT 40 =  ([O3] – 40)i
i=1
for [O3] > 40 ppb
Monthly AOT40 at Pune and Delhi
AOT40 [ppb*h]
AOT40 [ppb*h]
12000
11000
10000
9000
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7000
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5000
4000
3000
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1000
0
24000
21000
18000
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12000
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0
Mean
Year2004
(a)
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Months
Mean
Year2004
(b)
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Seasons
AOT40 values for the mean period (2003-2006)
At Pune
Beig, Ghude, et al., GRL, 2008
Ghude et al., J. Atm. Chem, 2009
Model Evaluation with observations
(Delhi)