Transcript Spatial Studies of Bioenergy Resources

Enough for all?
Biomass resource mapping under
spatio-economic constraints
Bernd Möller, Ph.D.
Sustainable Energy Planning & Management Group
Department of Development and Planning
Aalborg University, Denmark
Spatial and economic constraints of
biomass for energy
•
•
•
•
Production of photosynthetic biomass is highly dispersed
Biomass “consumes” land: area competition
Life cycle of biomass: include substitution effects
CO2 neutrality only in the long run: monitoring and
maintenance of global forest carbon stocks
• Economies of scale, energy efficiency and competition
with fossil fuels
• Sourcing in DK: import vs. local supply strategies
Global biomass is unevenly distributed
Global distribution of biomass flux in energy units.
Source: Sørensen, 2001
The geography of biomass supply
Large scale trade of biomass is just at its commence: what will the future bring?
Forest biomass (left) and population (right) are unequally distributed in
Europe, suggesting significant problems in connecting sources and users.
Data sources: European Forest Institute 2003; Eurostat 2006
Renewable energy in Denmark: Biomass
PJ
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1980
Wind
'85
Straw
'90
Wood
'95
Biogas
'00
Waste
Source: Energy Statistics 2005, Danish Energy Authority.
'05 '07
Heat Pumps
63,4 PJ,
7.3% of
prim.
energy
cons.
Resource geography and technology aspects
• Feedstock: residues versus dedicated crops
– Likely impacts on nutrient balance, soil humus, water table,
biodiversity or greenhouse gases
– Overall energy balance of energy crops can be poor
– Domestic energy crops lead to substitution effects of global
commodities
• Energy technologies
– Difficult to burn or convert, learning curves
• Transport and allocation
– Biomass is unequally distributed and often inaccessible
Domestic biomass potential & consumption
[PJ]
Potential Demand Share
(ENS)
(2005)
utilised
Demand Potential
(ref. 2030) (Felby)
Demand
(IDA 2030)
Straw
55
18
32.5%
27
55
25
Wood, total
40
38.3
95.8
45
40
40
Manure, biogas
40
4
9.3%
6.5
40
32
Manure, fibre fract.
0
0
0.0%
0
108
0
Energy crops
0
0
0.0%
0
144
54
30
30
99.7%
52
30
30
165
89.5
54.3%
131
417
180
M.H.Waste
Sum
Source: Danish Association of Engineers (IDA), Energy Plan 2030
Balance [PJ/yr]
Trade balance of selected biomass fuels, DK
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1 1975
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
-10
1980
1985
Straw
1990
Wood chips
1995
Wood pellets
Data source: Energy Statistics 2007, Danish Energy Agency
2000
2005
Competing uses of residual straw and its geographical distribution
Harvested
straw: 5.5
Mio tons
Straw available
for energy: 0.9
Mio tons
Available straw resources and competing uses mapped using CTtools, Conterra Aps
Bioenergy systems in Denmark
Biomass is used in decentralised district heating and cogeneration plants
(left); in centralised plants (right); and in 20% of all buildings.
Location, resources and economy
4.000
3.500
Costs
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Plant capacity
Transport
Investment
Total
Distribution of biomass resources in a region establishes transport costs and plant size
For a given location an optimal plant size can be defined
Wood chips in Denmark: calculating
spatially explicit costs of supply
Plant location and size influence supply
costs.
Möller, B. and Nielsen, P.S. (2007): Analysing transport costs of Danish forest wood chip resources
by means of continuous cost surfaces. Biomass & Bioenergy 31 (5) 291–298.
Allocation of
biomass to plants
Allocated straw
resources:
Who will have the purchasing
power when resources become
scarce?
Adding new demand will affect
local heat prices.
Conclusions
• Biomass resources must be analysed as an
integrated part of future energy systems:
– Relative to regional availability (potentials & costs)
– Including economies and efficiencies of scale
– With respect to regional allocation
• Energy crops and residual biomass can not
necessarily be treated as any other commodity
• Eventually biomass will become as scarce as
fossil fuels and food.
Please visit
www.energyplanning.aau.dk
for information on the international M.Sc. Programme
Sustainable Energy Planning & Management
at Aalborg University