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Sea level changes impact on saltwater intrusion into the Gauthami-Godavari River Estuary Thota V. Narasimha Rao Scientist F, National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre, 176, Lawson’s Bay Colony, Visakhapatnam-530 017. OBJECTIVE Characterize salinity intrusion extent in the Gauthami-Godavari River Estuary INTRODUCTION • • • • • • The impacts of sea level changes on coastal areas may cover many aspects including: Impacts on water resources, agricultural and health resources in the coastal areas. Usually impacts are exacerbated by other phenomena: such as subsidence, presence of ground water aquifers and coastal agriculture. We shall consider the saltwater intrusion impacts in some detail. INTRODUCTION • • • • Saltwater intrusion is a direct impact on: Groundwater resources, Soil salinity, Agricultural productivity and Quality in the coastal zone. The Godavari delta and its deterioration due to saltwater intrusion is an example. Impacts of saltwater intrusion include: Increase of soil salinity, Deterioration of land productivity, Socioeconomic & Health implications. It may lead to group migration of farmers looking for jobs else where. • • • • INTRODUCTION Sea level is rising more rapidly as a result of climate change, Posing risks to estuaries, Aaquifers, Wetlands, Lowlands, Beaches, and Infrastructure. Assess the potential impacts of sea level rise on Gauthami-Godavari drinking water systems . To identify systems whose intakes are vulnerable to sea level rise. Sea level rise could increase the salinity of an estuary by altering the balance between fresh water and salt water. The implications of sea level rise for increasing salinity have been examined in the Gauthami-Godavari River estuary. INTRODUCTION By correlative analysis of Salinity, Discharge, Tidal level & Calculation of two-dimensional salinity distribution of the GauthamiGodavari River estuary, The changes of the intensity Lasting hours of saltwater intrusion at Stas 1-4 & Changes of salinity distribution in the Gauthami-Godavar River estuary observed during 1989-1990 Estimations to be made for future sea level rises of 50–100 cm. INTRODUCTION Major concern for drinking-water utilities from sea-level rise is: The migration of saltwater upstream into fresh waters where drinking-water intakes are located. In India, water available for agriculture has fallen nearly 10% during the last decade. Sea-level rise scenarios: To evaluate the effects of potential sea-level rise on Gauthami- Godavari River estuary INTRODUCTION Future sea-level rise scenarios for the Indian region for the 21st century: 1) 30 to 40 centimeters (cm) total by the year 2100; 2) up to 50 cm total by 2100; & 3) up to 100 cm total by 2100. We refer to these scenarios as 1) 30- cm rise, 2) 50- cm rise, & 3)100- cm rise, respectively. INTRODUCTION Linear Mean Sea level (MSL) trends and 95% confidence intervals in feet/century Vizag 1st year Last year Year Range 1937 1996 60 Chennai 1916 2003 88 0.10 0.14 Mumbai 1878 1994 117 0.24 0.08 Cochi 1939 2004 66 0.45 0.11 MSL trend 0.18 +/-95% confidence 0.17 INTRODUCTION Salinity intrusion modifications can significantly impact established water uses like- Agricultural, Domestic & Industrial water supply. INTRODUCTION The extent of salinity intrusion depends on: The balance between Fresh water discharges & Saltwater flow from the sea. METHODOLOGY To develop a methodology to assist the operators of the reservoir Planning the release of water down the river To control the salinity in the estuary GAUTHAMI-GODAVARI RIVER ESTUARY 1-4 Observation stations Gauthami-Godavari River Estuary is located in central East Coast of India, which discharge to the Bay of Bengal River discharges The Godavari reservoir at Dhawaleswaram is designed to control flooding and provide irrigation water. The Godavari River has fresh water flows ranging from 50 to 3800 m3/s The dam is being built only 60 km upstream of the river mouth and near the tidal reach The Godavari River has fresh water flows of <100 m3/s during Dec. to April. Max. freshwater flow of 3800 m3/s in Aug. during flood season Variation of average monthly discharge (m3 s-1) at Dawaleswaram in the Godavari river Sea level changes Dec. 1989 and April 1990 Tidal currents Dec. 1989 and April 1990 Different River discharges Temperature (oC) & Salinity (PSU) Sea level rise could increase the salinity of an estuary by altering the balance between fresh water and salt water. Million people are served by coastal surface water systems that are unprotected (by a dam or other structure) from sea-level rise. People are ranked highly vulnerable to salt water intrusion, meaning they are unprotected& Within a tidal fresh-water reach with estuarine wetlands nearby (indicating slightly saline water a short distance downstream). Observations indicate that sea levels have risen from four to eight inches in the 20th century Temperature (oC) and Salinity (PSU) at Stas 1-3 during (A) Winter (Dec. 1989) (B) Dry (April 1990) & (C) Flood (July 1990) season Temperature (oC) & Salinity (PSU) Dry season Vertical profiles of Temperature (oC) & Salinity (PSU) at Stas 1-4 in Dry season, April, 1990 Temperature-Salinity (T-S) relationships Salinity intrusion Surface & Bottom along main channel Models indicate the possibility of an additional rise of eight to 15 inches over the 21st century. Changes will vary locally, and impacts will vary as well. Assessments of the possible consequences of climate change and climate variability on water quality. Our focus in these assessments has been on the ability of drinking water systems to continue to provide clean, safe water as climate changes especially on surface water systems. Our concern is the possible impact of sea level rise and salt-water intrusion on community water systems. (A) Temperature (oC) at (a) Surface and (b) near Bottom (B) Salinity (PSU) at (a) Surface and (b) near Bottom along the main channel of the Gauthami-Godavari Estuary Temperature-Salinity (T-S) plots Temperature-Salinity (T-S) plots from Dec. 1989 to Oct. 1990 at Stas 1-3 for (a) Surface and (b) near Bottom. Temperature-Salinity (T-S) plots Temperature-Salinity (T-S) plots at Stas 1-3. The month is indicated by the first three letters Salinity intrusion In an effort to assess the potential magnitude of the problem, we developed a screening methodology to identify systems that are potentially vulnerable. Factors other than sea level rise will impact the vulnerability of freshwater intake points to salt intrusion. For surface water systems: River flow, The distance of the intake point from the salt front & Withdrawal rates are among the factors that can influence vulnerability & Complicate the evaluation of that vulnerability. Multiple factors affect the vulnerability of freshwater intake points at any one location & local changes in sea level deviate from the global average. Salinity (PSU) in (a) Winter (Dec. 1989), (b) Dry (April 1990) and (c) Flood (July 1990) seasons Salinity Vs. Scaled axial distance x/L Mean salinity (PSU) at Stas 1-4 for Winter & Dry season • This straight line fits the mean value distribution surprisingly well (R2=0.99) and is given by S = 29.25 - 45 (x/L) • Mean axial salinity gradient is dS/d(x/L) = -45 x 10-3 or • dS/dx = -1.5 x 10-3 km-1. • This simple fit predicts the landward end of salt intrusion (S = 0 at x/L = 0.65). • The upstream limit of the mean position of the salinity intrusion is located about 40 km from the mouth. Salinity Vs. Scaled axial distance x/L. The numbers 1-4 show mean salinity (PSU) at four observation stations for winter and dry season Estuarine classification Station Nos. 1-3 For ground water system: Withdrawal rates, The depth and gradient of the aquifer & Recharge rates affect vulnerability. Even within a small geographic area: these factors vary, making it difficult to provide reliable estimates of impacts for the large population of coastal drinking water systems. A diagram of estuarine classification. 1-3 are station numbers APPROACH Screening analysis to identify systems withdrawing water from tidal & freshwater reaches of rivers. Systems vulnerable to sea level rise (as well as more frequent droughts, another possible effect of climate change) due to the potential for the intake water to become brackish. Determine the locations and characteristics of water supplies BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating Nonpoint and Point Sources). Latitude and longitude coordinates for Public Water System (PWS) intake points. Sort-out the sites by elevation class using 90 meter-square area Digital Elevation APPROACH Each intake point was labeled according to the following code: 0 = below 0.5 meters; 1= 0.5-1.5 meters; 2 = 1.5 to 2.5 meters; 3 = 2.5 to 3.5 meters; 4 = above 3.5 meters. Although the elevation data apply to the average elevation of the land in a 90 meter-square area around the intake and not to the intake itself (which is below the level of the land), For screening purposes we considered intakes below 3.5 meters elevation to be in low-lying areas and therefore vulnerable to sea level rise. This screening step yielded 156 low-lying, coastal surface water intakes. Working with these surface water intakes in low-lying areas, we then screened for intakes protected by a dam. APPROACH The next challenge is to find an indicator of vulnerability to sea level rise. Sites closest to brackish water would be the first to be affected by a migrating salt front, and needs an indicator of the proximity of brackish water to the remaining intakes. Wetland plants are often grouped by biologists into freshwater, brackish, and saltwater species. The boundary between estuarine and freshwater wetlands is defined by salinity, during average annual flow, of 0.5 ppt (PSU, Practical Salinity Units). APPROACH A PWS drawing water at 0.5 parts per thousand or higher Would have difficulty meeting the EPA’s secondary Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) for chloride and • Total dissolved solids (2.5 parts per million (ppm) or • 0.0025 ppt and 5 ppm or 0.005ppt, respectively (http://www.epa.gov/safewater/mcl.html) • • Unless it used desalination techniques. Therefore, An intake in an estuarine area might face salinity problems now, and One in close proximity to an estuary might be vulnerable to sea level rise. APPROACH Proximity of an estuarine wetland is an indicator of vulnerability for a public water system intake. Intake coordinates from locations and characteristics of water supplies generate maps of the area around the intake. These maps were overlaid on the wetland maps to measure the distance from the intake to the nearest estuarine area. Intake distance from 0 km (i.e., the intake is in an estuary) to the nearest estuary APPROACH Intake which is within an estuary Intake seems to be within one km of an estuary Fresh water creeks separated from the estuary by land & are designated as being at medium vulnerability. Low-lying ponds, having low vulnerability to contamination from sea level rise APPROACH An area that is home to estuarine plants might be only slightly brackish & Suitable for a drinking water supply. Water systems may use De-salinization processes, Enabling them to meet the EPA’s secondary standards for salt. Public Water System (PWS) intake point of Yanam Administration: Relocated its intake 20 km upstream in 1985 APPROACH The original intake continued to be used To provide a backup source, though it was useable only at low tide. In 1995 it was taken out of use after a cyclone destroyed it. It would be good to model the migration of the salt front up each coastal river basin in order to get a more specific understanding of PWS vulnerability. CONCLUSIONS • All the plants reported that they have had salinity problems Following storms or during droughts The vulnerability of the system depends on the occurrence of • drought • as well as sea level rise, • yet a coping strategy should still be developed. Better screening tools • Capture vulnerabilities such as this • Should be developed. CONCLUSIONS Given that some systems are vulnerable & Others may be vulnerable, It is important to consider adaptation strategies. Examples include those already employed by the system operators: Operate the plant at low tide; Prepare for storm surges by storing fresh water or Construct barriers to block the storm surge & Move to higher ground when it is no longer practical to rely on the existing intake. CONCLUSIONS Each of these options comes with costs • That will have to be borne by the communities being served. Other adaptation options exist, • Some of which are foresighted in their consideration of future sea level rise. It would be a shame for a permit to be issued • for a new system and • a community to invest in a capital project • whose useable life will be cut short by salt water intrusion. CONCLUSIONS Salinity intrusion reaches a river section located about 40 km upstream the river mouth. For more frequent river flows, the salinity gradients occur mainly downstream of the Sta. 2 (10 km from river mouth). Achieved results will be used as an important auxiliary source of information in order to select gauge stations for measurements of tidal water elevations, current velocity, and salinity concentrations. The developed model can be used to establish discharge operational schemes of the upstream hydropower plants safeguarding downstream water intakes. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Salinity intrusion Sea level rise will cause an intensification of saltwater penetration into rivers and freshwater canals, Which could be further increased in summer by reduced river flows. The larger extension of the salt wedge would prevent the use of freshwater for agricultural purposes & could lead to salt accumulation in soil. Saltwater penetration would influence the distribution & Consistence of the typical estuarine communities Storm surge is one of the major natural calamities along the coast of the Godavari River Delta region. Acknowledgement The author would like to thank to the Administration of Superintendent Engineer, Irrigation Department, Dhawaleswaram, A.P. & Naval Hydrographic Office (NHO) for the authorization to use River Discharge and Tidal data in this work. Background and Justification The studies on storm surges along the East Coast of India is multifaceted due to the cyclones that develop over the Bay of Bengal flooding the low-lying coastal regions. Synoptic disturbances (cyclones) originate during premonsoon (Apr-May) and post-monsoon (Oct-Nov). Tropical depressions: max. winds of 60 km/hr, Tropical storms: max. wind speeds between 60 and 120 km/hr Hurricanes/Typhoons: max. wind speeds of 120 km/hr influence the upper ocean dynamics. The effect of tropical cyclones cause immense damage by wind, pressure, rain and indirectly through storm surges on the East Coast of India. Contd…. The initial field needed for the model run in the Bay of Bengal requires to be prepared including the effect of cyclones in generating storm surges and waves. Surge computations by using a model. Significant input in the surge prediction is the predicted track of the cyclone. The system significantly affects the East Indian Coastal region during pre and post monsoon seasons by causing flooding across the shelf along the coast. Narasimha Rao (1998) Proc. Vol. of the Int. Conf. on “Natural and Technological Hazards”, Int. work shop on “Storm surges”, S.V.University,Tirupati, Sponsored by UNESCO (IOC). Fig. 5 Location of all earthquakes from 26th December 2004 to now Fig. 6 Tsunami 26 December 2004 prepared by INGV Istituto Nazionale Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Indonesia Fig. 6 In deep water the Tsunami cannot be noticed, but in shallow water it rapidly increases in height as it slows. Fig. 7 Equipment for fixed stations: (1) Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP): for measuring water column velocity and pressure, (2) Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter (ADV): for measuring water velocity, temperature, pressure and bed elevation and (3) Optical Backscatter Sensor (OBS): for measuring near-bottom and mid column suspended sediment concentration, Frame for bottom mooring Rationale Natural phenomenon like storm surges and tsunamis cause abnormal fluctuations in sea level along the coasts. The tide gauges installed to measure the rhythmic raise and fall of sea levels due to astronomical tides are also capable of recording such abnormal fluctuations in sea levels. The analysis of tide gauge records along the Indian coast and elsewhere showed that the recent event of tsunami, that occurred on 26 December 2004, was well recorded by the tide gauges in the Indian Ocean. It is possible that such events occurred in the past escaped our attention because of their low impacts on human life and property. The recent observations at a tide gauge located at Manzanillo, Mexico, a location very far from the epicentre of 26 December tsunami, showed the signature of Indian Ocean tsunami as much as 2.6 m (crest-to-trough). ). At present, it is not known how many such events occurred in the past in Pacific or Atlantic have left their trace in the tide gauges along Indian coast. Identifying such events in instrumental data records and developing the ability to simulate them will allow us to generate reliable statistics. In the case of tsunamis, confidence in a model is critical because it will then allow us to prepare a scenario database that can be used when a tsunami is triggered. Similarly, in the case of storm surges, identifying past surges and simulating them accurately (with validation based on tidegauge data rather than eyewitness accounts) will lead to better, more reliable models and statistics. Investigations summarised in this group envisage the identification of past storm surges or tsunamis in historical sealevel records and their simulation to understand the pattern of tsunamis and storm surges along the Indian coast and its impact on energy, water & air borne diseases. Objectives Identify the extreme sea level events along the Indian coast in the historical tide gauge data. Simulation of storm surges and tsunamis along the Indian coast for historical events. Assessment of the impact of climate change on storm surges along the Indian coast. Generation of wave statistics along the coast of India during past cyclones. Improvements in the storm track prediction in the Bay of Bengal. Diseases Screening component: Screening of the population by History, clinical examination and simple laboratory testing for chronic kidney disease, diabetes mellitus and hypertension in rural adult population. Prevention component: Prevention of life-style diseases in general by health education and imparting knowledge on healthy diets, exercise and anti-smoking measures etc. To retard the progression by diet, exercise and appropriate medication where applicable. A sort of integrated control of non-communicable diseases will be attempted at Mahatma Sri Ram Chandra Centemary Hospital personnel which is located in Hyderabad with a satellite center in Kanukunta Village Research component: To assess the GFR Profile in the rural community by measuring the creatinine clearance( 10% of the randomly selected rural population GFR will be determined by DTPA also). To compare the performance of various available formulae to estimate GFR(eGFR) To assess the decline in GFR level among persons with a GFR level < 60ml/min,during the study period in the rural population. To improve performance of soldiers stationed at higher altitudes At high altitudes due to hyponia, soldiers face pulmonary edena, cerebral edena Other problem is frostbile due to cold at high altitude. Hyponia bags to reduce hyponia related problems Approach This study aims at understanding of the storm surges and prediction of surge profiles along the East Coast of India in response to varying forces due to cyclones generated in the Bay of Bengal. Compilation of storms data from the Bay of Bengal and storm surge data along the East Coast of India. Impact of storm surges on the coast by different cyclones with variations of wind and pressure in the Bay will be investigated. This helps in formulating the timely precautionary measures in mitigating coastal hazards and so reducing its impact on power disruption, causing water & air borne diseases Action plan Digitise the tide gauge charts available with survey of India (for the past 120 years or so) at a finer interval (say 5 min.) so that the signals of extreme sea level due to tsunamis will not be lost. Collect the information on past events of weather disturbances (cyclones, storm surges etc.) and earthquakes from all available sources and corroborate them with the extreme sea level signals identified in the tide gauge records. Statistical analysis of the extreme sea level events identified in the tide gauge records. Simulation of tsunamis for the past events in the Indian Ocean. Simulation of storm surges for the past events using MIKE21 and Jelesnianski's model. Storm surge simulations using HadRM3 winds for future climate scenarios. Development of a tsunami simulation model for the Indian Ocean. Modelling the wave climate along the coast of India for different cyclones and identifying high wave concentration zones. Data Requirement Weather Map products of storm: Position of the storm centre or eye, Minimum sea level pressure at landfall, Speed of storm movement, Crossing angle of storm track with respect to the coast at landfall, Radius of maximum winds, Mean sea level pressure drop and Time of the eye crossing the coast. Upper air data: Wind, Pressure and Temperature Surface meteorological parameters derived from buoys, ships: Air temperature, Wet bulb temperature, Wind speed, Wind direction, Pressure and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Vertical profiles: Temperature and Salinity Cyclone weather information: Satellites and radars will be envisaged. Data on power plants & their emergency action plans Data on water & air borne diseases Rescue operation by Soldiers & their problems in high altitudes Milestones Period Milestones Phase1 - May 2011 – Mar 2012 Collection of data on storm surges and the observed met. and ocean parameters from past records and data related to power plants, water & air borne diseases, and rescue operation of soldiers. Phase 2 - Apr 2012 – Mar 2013 Modeling storm surges with appropriate inputs. Phase 3 - Apr 2013 – Mar 2014 Model verification MANPOWER Investigators T. V. Narasimha Rao Dr. K. V. Dakshinamurty Sandeep Rairikar R. K. Kamble Dr. Deepika Bhaskar Ruma Dutta Uday Puntambekar Budget (Manpower / Equipment / Travel & Contingencies etc.) TOTAL COST OF THE PROJECT (IN RUPEES): Rupees 30.0 Lakhs. BUDGET ESTIMATES (SUMMARY) : (Rupees in lakhs) S. No. Item Name 1St Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Subtotal Remarks 1. Manpower 4.56 4.56 4.45 13.68 For RA @ 11000/- month + 15% HRA 2. Consumables 0.5 0.4 04 1.3 3. Contingencies (including external service and software) 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 4. Travel TA/DA 0.9 0.9 0.8 2.6 5. Equipment 7.0 -- -- 7.0 6. 15% of total cost institutional overhead charges 2.02 0.97 0.95 3.91 Subtotal 15.48 7.21 7.2 29.99 Total Cost (Rs. In Words): Rupees thirty lakhs only PROPOSED EQUIPMENT: (Rupees in lakhs) S. No. Description and technical specifications Approx. cost Remarks 1. Workstation 6.0 -- 2. 1 PC + 1 Scanner + 1 CD writer + 1 Laser printer 1.00 -- Total (Rupees in lakhs) 7.0 -- JUSTIFICATION FOR EACH COMPONENT: The following equipment is essential for the smooth running of the proposed project: 1. Work Station is required for running the model. 2. PC with scanner, CD writer, laser printer are essential for computational facilities. PERSONAL INFORMATION 1. NAME AND ADDRESS OF PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR ALONG WITH FAX, TELEX, TELEPHONE NUMBERS, e-mail etc. Thota V. Narasimha Rao, Fax: 0891-543595 Scientist F Tel: 0891-539180 (o), 0891-532423 ®. Regional Centre, E-mail: [email protected] / [email protected] National Institute of Oceanography, 176, Lawson's Bay Colony, Visakhapatnam - 530 017. 2. PLACE OF WORK FOR THE PROPOSED PROJECT: NIO, RC, Visakhapatnam. 3. BRIEF VITA OF PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR i) Name: Thota V. Narasimha Rao ii) Date of Birth: 28-11-1954 iii) Institution: National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre, Address: Street:176, Lawson's Bay Colony, City: Visakhapatnam State: Andhra Pradesh Pin: 530 017 Telephone No. :0891-539180 (o), 0891-532423 ® Fax No. : 0891-543595 E-Mail: [email protected] / [email protected] iv) Educational Qualifications : M. Sc. (Tech) Meteorology & Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam. v) Research Work (areas) : Physical Oceanography, Coastal & estuarine dynamics. vii) Publications (details) : Published 20 papers (Total) Papers relevant to this proposal: 6 (Given below) S. No. Title of paper Co-authors Name & No. of journal Flow field in the inner shelf along the central East Coast of India during the southwest monsoon season --- Journal of Coastal Research, Vol.20, No.3 Year Page No. From - To 1. July, 2004 814 - 827 2. Spatial distribution of upwelling off the East central East Coast of India --- Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science Vol. 54, No. 2 February, 2002 Estuaries, Vol. 24, No.1 February, 2001 141 - 156 3. Time-dependent stratification in the Gauthami Godavari Estuary --- 18 - 29 4. Variability of the flow field in the inner shelf along the central East Coast of India during April. 1989 B.P. Rao, V.S. Rao & Y.S. Ram Continental Shelf Research, Vol.15, No.2/3. 1995 241 - 253 5. Along shore velocity field off Visakhapatnam, East Coast of India during pre-monsoon season Indian Journal of Marine Sciences, Vol.18. B.P. Rao 6. Storm surge on the Andhra Coast during November, 1977. --- Proceeding Volume of the International Conference on “Natural and Technological Coastal hazards”; international workshop on “Storm Surges”, S.V.University, Tirupathi, Sponsored by UNESCO (IOC), 1998 March 1989, 46 – 49 1998 --