Transcript Q1 2005 Presentation Slides
1 2005 fourth quarter review & conference call February 17, 2006
the future is friendly
2
forward-looking statements
This presentation and answers to questions contain forward-looking statements that require assumptions about expected future events including competition, financing, labour relations developments, and financial and operating results and 2006 targets that are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. TELUS’ actual results, conditions, actions or events could differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. Assumptions for 2006 target purposes include: economic growth consistent with recent provincial and national estimates by the Conference Board of Canada that were available in 2005, including gross domestic product growth of 3.1% in Canada; increased wireline competition in both business and consumer markets; a wireless industry market penetration gain similar to the approximately five percentage point gain in 2005; approximately $100 million restructuring and workforce reduction expenses; an effective tax rate of approximately 35%; no prospective significant acquisitions or divestitures; no change in foreign ownership rules; and maintenance or improvement of investment grade credit ratings.
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include but are not limited to: competition; technology; regulatory developments; human resources; business integrations and internal reorganizations; process risks; financing and debt requirements; tax matters; health, safety and environment; litigation; business continuity events; economic growth and fluctuations; and other risk factors discussed herein and listed from time to time in TELUS’ reports and filings. For additional information on potential risk factors and assumptions, see TELUS’ 2004 Annual Report, updates in 2005 quarterly interim reports and other filings with securities commissions in Canada and the United States.
all dollars in C$ unless otherwise specified
3 the future is friendly 2005 fourth quarter review & conference call February 17, 2006 Darren Entwistle member of the TELUS team
2005 highlights
Demonstrated continued wireless excellence Resilience of wireline despite labour disruption Achieved strong TELUS consolidated 2005 results Revenue 7% Free cash flow 13% 4 All 2005 consolidated targets achieved / 88% in last 6 years
2005 highlights by segment
Wireless industry annual growth accelerated in Canada Wireless segment continued excellent results Revenue up 17% & EBITDA up 26% Cash flow up 32% to $1.0 billion Wireline segment resilient despite labour disruption Revenue up 1.6% data up 8% & long distance down 4% EBITDA down 5%, up 2% normalizing for labour Cash flow strong at $938 million 5 Q4 product launches: EVDO & TELUS TV
Leading global telecom performance
Growth Revenue EBITDA Cash flow** EPS
World Rankings*
2003
top quartile
2004
No.1
2005 2006E
top quartile top quartile top quartile No.1
nmf No.1
No.1
top quartile top quartile top quartile No.2
top half No.2
No.1
*
Source: TD Securities data on major global incumbent telecoms ** EBITDA less capital expenditures 6 TELUS performs well relative to global telecom peers
Benefits of new collective agreement
Ratified 5 year collective agreement to Nov. 2010 All corporate objectives met without exception Return to work program – best in class Excellent employee engagement Allows management to productively run the business outsourcing, consolidating, scheduling Supports a performance culture Work with TWU to have all legal proceedings dismissed 7 Enhances TELUS ability to focus on customers and to compete
Returning significant capital to investors
Continued focus in 2005 and 2006 December debt redemption $1.6 billion Share repurchases total $970 million to date Second share repurchase program underway Second step of dividend growth model 37.5% increase Jan 2006 8 Focus on sustainable value creation over the long-term
2006 priorities support national growth strategy
Advance TELUS’ leadership position in the Consumer market Advance TELUS position in the Business market Advance TELUS position in the Wholesale market Drive improvements in productivity and service excellence Strengthen the spirit of the TELUS team and brand, and develop the best talent in global communications industry 9 Continued on strategy execution for benefit of investors
10 2005 fourth quarter review & conference call February 17, 2006 Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer
wireless segment
financial results
($M) Revenue EBITDA EBITDA (normalized) 1 Capex Cash Flow (EBITDA less capex) Q4-04 756 285 285 123 162
Q4-05 877
Change 16%
326 329 144 182
14% 15% 17% 12% 1 Q4-05 EBITDA normalized to exclude $3M net expense impact of labour disruption 11 Excellent results despite EBITDA dilution from record gross adds
wireless segment
subscriber results
prepaid postpaid net additions 235K 186K total wireless subscribers 4.5 M 0.9 M prepaid 19% postpaid 81% 3.7 M Q4-04 Q4-05 12 Record fourth quarter net additions with stable postpaid and strong prepaid growth
wireless segment
industry subscriber growth
Population Net subscriber additions Cdn wireless market Penetration Penetration gain
2003
31.7M
1.4M
13.4M
42.3% 4.1% Source: Company reports, CWTA
2004
32.1M
1.6M
15.0M
46.7% 4.4%
2005
32.4M
1.8M
16.8M
51.8% 5.1% 13 Canadian wireless market growth continues to accelerate
wireless segment
industry ARPU
$61 $63 $49 $54 $50 $51 Q4-04 Q4-05 14 TELUS Source: Company reports 1 Pro forma Microcell Rogers Wireless 1 BCE Wireless Increased usage and data uptake driving ARPU growth
wireless segment
profitable growth
Q4-05
TELUS
ARPU Blended churn
$63 1.42%
Avg. lifetime revenue per sub $
4400
COA per gross add COA / lifetime revenue
$449 10%
BCE $51 1.5% $3400 $409 12% Rogers $54 2.04% $2600 $425 16% 15 TELUS’ wireless marketing efficiency remains best in Canada
wireless cash flow yield
2005 EBITDA margin (total rev.) Capex intensity (total rev.) Cash flow 1 yield (total rev.)
TELUS 44% 12% 31%
1 EBITDA less capex 16 North American leader in wireless cash flow yield
wireless segment
2005 results comparison to original targets
actual results targets 1 met or exceeded
Revenue EBITDA Capex Wireless Net Adds $3.30B
$1.44B
$405M 584K $3.20 to $3.25B
$1.35 to 1.40B
$350 to 400M 425 to 475K 1 Provided December 17, 2004 17 Met or exceeded original wireless targets for revenue, EBITDA and net adds
wireless segment
2005 results comparison to guidance
actual results
Revenue EBITDA Capex Wireless Net Adds $3.30B
$1.44B
$405M 584K
guidance 1
$3.275 to $3.3B
$1.425 to $1.45B
approx. $400M >550K
met or exceeded
1 Updated December 16, 2005 18 Achieved updated wireless guidance across the board
wireline segment
revenue profile
($M) Voice – Local Voice – Long Distance Data Other Total Revenue Q4-04 534 230
Q4-05 537 212
373
400
72
61
$1,209
$1,210
change 0.4% 7.7% 7.2% 15% - % 19 Wireline revenue displays resilience despite labour disruption
wireline segment
financial results
Revenue EBITDA EBITDA (normalized) 1 Capex Cash Flow (EBITDA less capex) Q4-04 $1.21B
$482M $502M $221M $261M
Q4-05 $1.21B
$409M $494M $230M $179M
change 15% 1.6% 4.3% 32% 1 Normalized to exclude $20M & $36M in restructuring charges in Q4-04 and Q4-05, respectively. Q4-05 also normalized to exclude $49M net expense impact of labour disruption 20 EBITDA decline due to labour disruption and higher restructuring costs
wireline segment
non-ILEC revenue & EBITDA
($M)
revenue
165 156
EBITDA
Q4-04 Q4-05 3.7
7.1
Q4-04 Q4-05 21 Continued revenue and profitability growth in Central Canada
wireline segment
high-speed Internet subscriber growth
high-speed Internet net additions total Internet subscribers
1.0M
35K dial-up 24% 236K 27K 763K high-speed 76% Q4-04 Q4-05 22 High-speed net adds slowed by labour disruption TELUS now has 1M Internet subs with 76% on high-speed
wireline segment
network access line results
% of network access lines lost, YoY Q4-04 Q1-05 Q2-05 Q3-05 Q4-05 -1.3% -1.1% -1.8% -2.2% -2.4%
23 NAL results impacted by labour disruption & increased competition from cable telephony
wireline segment
2005 results comparison to original targets
2005 actual results original 2005 targets 1 met or exceeded
Revenue Non-ILEC Revenue EBITDA Non-ILEC EBITDA Capex High-Speed Net Adds $4.85B
$632M $1.85B
$21M $914M 73K $4.70 to 4.75B
$600 to $650M $1.85 to 1.90B
$0 to 10M $950 to 1,000M approx. 100K 1 Provided on December 17, 2004 24 Exceeded original wireline revenue and Non-ILEC EBITDA targets
wireline segment
2005 results comparison to guidance
2005 actual results most recent guidance 1 met or exceeded
Revenue Non-ILEC Revenue EBITDA Non-ILEC EBITDA Capex High-Speed Net Adds $4.85B
$632M $1.85B
$21M $914M 73K $4.825 to $4.85B
$625 to $635M $1.84 to $1.865B
$15 to $20M approx. $900M > 65K 1 Updated on December 16, 2005 25 Achieved updated wireline guidance
TELUS Consolidated
financial results
Revenue Q4-04 $1.96B
Q4-05 $2.09B
EBITDA $767M
$734M
EPS Capex $0.38
$343M
$0.22
$374M
change 6.2% 4.2% 42% 8.9% 26 Profitability significantly impacted by labour disruption and one time debt redemption charge
TELUS Consolidated
EBITDA - normalized
($M) Consol. EBITDA (reported) Restruc. & w. r. costs Consol. EBITDA (bef. restruc.) Net labour disruption impacts
Consol. EBITDA (normalized)
Q4-04 767 20 787
787
-
Q4-05 734
36
770
52
822 change
4.3% 2.2% 4.4
%
27 Normalized consolidated EBITDA growth of 4.4%
TELUS Consolidated
EPS continuity
EPS reported
Restr. & workforce reduction Labour disruption impact Early bond redemption Other Tax related matters
EPS normalized
Q4-04 $0.38
$0.04
(0.02) (0.07) $0.33
Q4-05 $0.22
$0.07
$0.10
$0.06
$0.01
$0.46
change 42% 40% 28 Strong normalized EPS growth at 40%
free cash flow
29
($M) EBITDA Capex Net Cash Interest Cash Restruct. Payments (in excess of expense) Non-Cash Share Based Compensation Q4-04 $767 (343) (290) (15) 6 (2) Net Cash Tax Recovery Free Cash Flow Share Issuance (non-public) Cash Dividends A/R securitization Payment Received from Verizon Working Capital/Other $122 77 (113) 148 116 Cash avail. for debt reduction & share redemp.
$351 Q4-05 $734 (374) (306) 5 3 47 $110 19 (97) 350 (30) $352
TELUS Consolidated
return of capital – share buy back
Repurchased 5.1M shares for $229M under both NCIB programs in Q4-05 Repurchased 20.8M shares for $892M during 2005 under both NCIB programs Current 24 million share (7% of outstanding) NCIB effective Dec. 20, 2005 to Dec. 19, 2006 5% completed in 7 trading days in Dec-05 30 TELUS committed to share repurchases
TELUS Consolidated
return of capital – continued
Completed $1.6B early debt redemption of 7.5% Series CA Notes on Dec. 1, 2005 Funded by cash on hand, $350M increase in A/R securitization program and $142M in bank facilities Incurred $33.5M loss on redemption & settlement of interest rate hedges Interest savings benefit in Dec-05 and 2006 Previously announced a 38% quarterly dividend increase to 27.5 cents per share, for Jan. 1, 2006 payment Consistent with dividend payout ratio guideline of 45 to 55% of sustainable net earnings 31 TELUS has strong track record for returning capital to investors
TELUS consolidated
credit ratings & financial policy targets
Previous Rating Current Rating Moody’s S&P Fitch DBRS
Baa3 (stable) BBB (positive) BBB (positive) BBB (stable)
Baa2 (stable)
BBB+ (stable)
BBB+ (stable)
BBB high (stable) Date of Change
June 27 Sept 27 Oct 18 Oct 24
Long-term financial policy target
Net Debt : EBITDA Net Debt : Total Cap
target 1
1.5 to 2.0x
45 to 50% 32 1 Net debt to EBITDA target updated November 10, 2005 All four rating agencies upgraded TELUS in 2005
Q4-05
1.7x
45.7%
Met
TELUS Consolidated
2005 results versus analyst estimates
2005 consensus estimates 1 2005 original targets 2
Revenue EBITDA EPS Capex Free Cash Flow $7.84B
$3.25B
$1.80
$1.35B
$1.20B
$7.9 to 8.0B
$3.2 to 3.3B
$1.65 to 1.85
$1.3 to 1.4B
$1.2 to 1.3B
1 Analyst consensus estimates for TELUS, as at Nov 30/04, preceding 2005 targets provided Dec 17/04 2 Provided December 17, 2004 33 Original targets challenging as compared to analyst estimates
TELUS Consolidated
2005 results comparison to original targets
2005 actual results original 2005 targets 1 met or exceeded
Revenue EBITDA 2 EPS Capex Free Cash Flow $8.14B
$3.30B
$1.96
$1.32B
$1.47B
$7.9 to 8.0B
$3.2 to 3.3B
$1.65 to $1.85
$1.3 to 1.4B
$1.2 to $1.3B
1 Provided December 17, 2004 2 Includes actual restructuring costs of $54M versus original restructuring costs of approx. $100M 34 TELUS achieved original 2005 financial targets on the back of solid wireless results despite labour disruption
TELUS Consolidated
2005 results comparison to guidance
2005 actual results most recent guidance 1 met or exceeded
Revenue EBITDA 2 EPS Capex Free Cash Flow $8.14B
$3.30B
$1.96
$1.32B
$1.47B
$8.10 to 8.15B
$3.275 to 3.325B
$1.90 to 2.00
approx. $1.3B
$1.4 to 1.5B
1 Updated December 16, 2005 2 Actual 2005 results include restructuring costs of $54M 35 Consolidated results consistent with December 2005 guidance
TELUS Consolidated
Pension plans – update
Strong investment performance in Q4-05 and lower discount rate for 2006 In aggregate, TELUS pension funds are 98% funded Approx. $165M in cash contributions expected in 2006 (DB & DC plans) Discount rate assumption for 2006 lowered to 5.0% (vs. 5.25% guidance on Dec. 16, 2005, and 6.0% in 2005) TCI defined benefit pension plans ceased accepting new management employees 36 Lower discount rate offset by strong investment performance
TELUS Consolidated
2006 Consolidated targets summary
Revenue EBITDA 1 EPS Capex Free Cash Flow
2006 targets
$8.6 to 8.7B
$3.5 to 3.6B
$2.40 to 2.60
$1.50 to 1.55B
$1.55 to 1.65B
change
6 to 7% 6 to 9% 22 to 33% 14 to 18% 6 to 13% 1 Including restructuring & workforce reduction costs of $54M in 2005 and approx. $100M in 2006 37 2006 targets build upon track record of strong operational execution
TELUS Consolidated
Summary
Solid quarterly and annual consolidated results despite one-time labour disruption impact and increasingly competitive environment Continued strong profitable wireless growth Reached 5-year collective agreement allowing for increased flexibility Generating significant cash flow Strong 2006 revenue, earnings and cash flow growth outlook 38 Continued execution into a future friendly 2006
39
questions?
2005
fourth quarter review
investor relations 1-800-667-4871 TELUS.com
appendix
definitions
EBITDA
: Earnings, after restructuring and workforce reduction costs, before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
Capital intensity:
capex divided by total revenue
Cash flow:
EBITDA less capex
Free Cash Flow:
EBITDA, adding Restructuring and workforce reduction costs, cash interest received and excess of share compensation expense over share compensation payments, subtracting cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital expenditures, and cash restructuring payments 40 TELUS definitions for non-GAAP measures