Transcript GLOBALIZATION, REGIONALIZATION AND THE EU-JAPAN

Challenges and Opportunities for
Regional Cooperation in the Black Sea
Region: A View from Romania
By Professor Adrian Pop
National School for Political and
Administrative Studies
Bucharest
SWOT Analysis of the Cooperation Context
Strong Points
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Connection link along the emerging geopolitical and geo-economic axis
Mediterranean Sea – Black Sea – Caspian Sea
Geo-strategic position as new south-eastern EU border
Giant market for the EU exports
Low costs of the labour force
Potential of a substantial flow of FDIs
High potential of biodiversity in agricultural resources, tourism, and
fisheries
Valuable cultural heritage, diverse human capacities and social values
Buffer zone where the Orthodox, Islamic and Western civilizations and
cultures blend together
SWOT Analysis of the Cooperation Context
Weak Points
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Hardly a region at all and a clashing point of the major Euro-Atlantic and
Eurasian global players’ interests
Economic development constraints due to physical and climate conditions
Intra and interregional disparities in economic development
Environmental protection constraints due to the closed sea feature of the
Black Sea
Different statuses of the BSR countries vis-à-vis EU and NATO
State fragility and poor administrative capacity
Persistence of mutual distrust relations between some countries within the
region
Corruption, organized crime, illicit traffic and unresolved conflicts
Demographical decline due to negative birth increase and labour migration
Poor quality of the industrial and transport infrastructure
Obsolete education infrastructure and technological level of the innovation
centres
SWOT Analysis of the Cooperation Context
Opportunities
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Meeting point of two geopolitical axes: North-South axis (Russia-ArmeniaIran) and the East-West axis (Caspian corridor to the EU)
Substantial increase of GDP and FDIs after 2000
Access of coastal areas of the EU MS to the Cohesion Policy funds
Big investments planned for the pan-European transport axis, oil and gas
pipelines
Activation of Black Sea Sectoral Partnerships
Involving Russia and Turkey in the new EU cooperation initiatives
CEPS proposals: a pan-European free trade area; a tripartite EU-RussiaUkraine gas pipeline agreement; linking the pan-European transport
corridors to the westward corridors in Central Asia; an international effort
to solve the water-hydro-energy crisis in Central Asia; a quadrilateral EURussia-Ukraine-Kazakhstan cooperation to tackling climate change
Implementing new software technologies and vocational and lifelong
education, for adapting to the requirements of Bologna process
Increased demand for tourist services, expanded potentially to all coastline
regions
SWOT Analysis of the Cooperation Context
Threats
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Poverty and economic underdevelopment
Increased macro-economic instability due to the global economic crisis
Excessive migration of high-skilled labour force towards EU countries
Harsh competition of the newly industrialized countries within the field of
industrial development and attracting FDIs
Increase of the gap between the EU MS and their eastern neighbours in
fields such as trade, single market, labour force mobility and the
development of the knowledge-based society
Environment degradation and natural disasters
Augmentation of separatist trends and delays in solving local conflicts
Corruption, organized crime and terrorism
The resurgence of Russia’s spheres of influence policy
Energy dependence used as a blackmailing tool
Increased militarization of the geopolitics of energy
Possible use of the BSR as a platform for military, reconstruction and
stabilization operations in the Greater Middle East
Inflation of Regional Cooperation
Organizations and Initiatives
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Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization
Community of Democratic Choice
Organization for Democracy and Economic Development – GUAM
Black Sea Naval Cooperation Task Group (BLACKSEAFOR)
Black Sea Harmony
Black Sea Coast Forum
Black Sea Border Coordination and Information Centre
Black Sea Euro-region
Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform
Southeast European Cooperative Initiative Regional Center for Combating TransBorder Crime (SECI Center)
Southeast European Cooperation Process
Civil-Military Emergency Planning Council in South-Eastern Europe
Black Sea Forum for Partnership and Dialogue
Black Sea Synergy
Eastern Partnership
Union for the Black Sea
Conditions for the New EU Initiatives to
Become Success Stories
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Added value for all stakeholders
Unambiguous recognition of the sovereignty of all the states involved
Light-weight institutional framework
Appropriate instruments
Not impeding or overlapping the ENP
Part and parcel of the EU community process
Active involvement of Russia and Turkey
Complementarity and correlation
Regional Cooperation Research Agenda
Building a research methodology
• Identifying the main thematic
or sectoral dimensions of
regional cooperation in the
BSR
• Designing evaluation criteria
for organizations, activities
and initiatives
• Designing evaluation criteria
for the impact of regional
organizations, activities and
initiatives on the economic,
political and security
environment in the BSR
Evaluation of activities
• Analysis of the achievements
and shortcomings
• Identifying overlapping
activities
• Analysis of the degree in
which regional cooperation in
the BSR relates to the
processes of European and
Euro-Atlantic integration in
the region
Environment
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The EC full member status in the Black Sea Convention; EC suggestions
for legal amendments to ensure that modern environmental policies and
principles are applied to the Black Sea
DABLAS Task Force: platform for cooperation for the protection of the
Danube and the Black Sea chaired by EC; seeks to bring cohesion to the
financing process; waste water infrastructure projects
The EC technical assistance project for strengthening the capacity of
implementing the Kyoto Protocol and negotiating a new agreement after
2012
Proposals:
- Set up a system of proportional tax on water transport and through pipes
taking into consideration the amount and the pollution risk
- Set up a Regional Centre for Studying the Adaptations to the Climate
Changes employing multinational personnel
Transport
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TRACECA: long-term strategy for the corridor up to 2015
Extension of the major trans-European axes: Motorways of the Seas, the
Central Transport Axis, the South-Eastern Transport Axis and the
maritime safety measures
Extension of the common aviation area: improved safety, strengthened
civil aviation authorities
Baku Process: aviation, security in all modes of transport, road and rail
transport, transport infrastructure and maritime safety
Black Sea Ring Highway
Proposal:
- Promote technical assistance and know-how transfer in the multimodal
transport field
Maritime Policy
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Setting up an integrated network of maritime surveillance systems and its
possible extension to non-EU Black Sea riparian countries
Setting up a European Network for Marine Data and Observations
Forging a Regional Strategy for the Integrated Management of Black Sea
Coast Areas
Proposal:
- Introduction of a legislative measure regarding the Black Sea in the
measures’ package of ERICA I and II projects
Migration
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Setting up a Regional Platform: EU MS, EU agencies, Black Sea riparian
countries, regional organizations
Mobility partnerships focused on circular and seasonal migration
Visa facilitation and readmission agreements
Awareness campaigns
Institutional twinning
Proposals:
- Romania and Bulgaria to establish, together with FRONTEX, joint patrols
in the Black Sea
- Expand the consular representation of the EU MS in the Common Visa
Application Centre in Chisinau
- More flexible visa regimes imposed by EU MS at the Eastern border for
their immediate neighbours
Cross-border Organized Crime
Proposals:
- Set up a regional cooperation platform: relevant EU MS, EU agencies,
countries bordering the Black Sea, and regional organizations such as
BSEC, SECI Center in Bucharest, the Black Sea Border Coordination and
Information Centre in Burgas and the Virtual Centre GUAM
- ENP partner countries in the Black Sea Region to conclude and
implement cooperation agreements with EUROPOL and FRONTEX
- Interaction between Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine on combating
organized crime to be coordinated within the BSEC framework
- EU MS at the Eastern border to improve the integrated management
system of their borders, set up common border checkpoints with their
immediate neighbours and take part in the EUBAM mission
Civil Society Cross-border Cooperation
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RO-RM-UKR cross-border cooperation programme, which covers the NW
Black Sea coast: 126 million Euro
Black Sea Basin Joint Operational Programme 2007-2013, whose one out
of three objectives is to promote local, people-to-people contacts: 17
million Euro
Various programmes developed under ENPI
Black Sea Forum for Dialogue and Partnership
GMF’s Black Sea Trust for Regional Cooperation programmes
Energy
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Accession of Black Sea countries to the Energy Community Treaty: start
negotiations with Moldova, Ukraine and Turkey; Georgia as observer
INOGATE: supports the development of new energy infrastructure
projects through the provision of targeted technical assistance; promotes
the regional integration of the oil and gas pipelines and facilitates
transport both within the region of INOGATE participating countries
and towards the export markets of Europe
Baku Process: An Energy Road Map has been devised
Supporting the gradual development of regional energy markets in
littoral states of the Black and Caspian Seas and their neighbouring
countries in order to facilitate a gradual integration between the
respective energy markets and the EU market
Getting appropriate funding for new infrastructure projects
Embarking on energy efficiency policies and programmes
European Energy Security Strategy
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Liberalisation and integration of the European electricity and gas
markets
Fostering internal energy market
Sustainable, efficient and diverse energy mix, including renewable
energy (wind, biomass, geothermal)
Extension of storage capacities
Nuclear energy
Encouraging innovation - Strategic European Energy Technology Plan
Integrated approach to tackling climate change
Solidarity / crisis-response mechanism
„Common voice“ – coherent External Energy Policy
A holistic approach – energy as part of the Critical Infrastructure
Protection (CIP); Public Private Partnerships for security infrastructure
Challenges Facing Nabucco
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3300 km long, 5 jurisdictions – complicated preparation process
Turkey: stalls the transit agreement for Azerbaijani gas
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Increasingly complex environment in the Caspian region: growing
competition; new security challenges
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Difficulties to secure gas sources for the pipeline
Azerbaijan: quantity, commitment
Turkmenistan: commitment, quantity, transmission
Iraq: security, quantity
Egypt: quantity, routes
Iran: geopolitical issues
Russia: competition
EU “Energy Soup”
Unresolved Conflicts
An Insecurity Area at the EU Eastern Border
EU Role in Unresolved Conflicts
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Gaining time is counterproductive
Georgia vs. Kosovo; geography
and interests shouldn’t lead to a
selective application of int’l law
The only power which has the
necessary negotiating clout; it
should demonstrate confidence in
its own strategic potential
Attractiveness of the European
integration model
EU President, HR for the Union
in FASP, European External
Action Service, legal personality,
reinforced cooperation in ESDP
Lessons learnt from the Russian-Georgian War
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Two types of secessionist conflicts and Russian behaviour
Abkhazia and South Ossetia along with the Turkish R. of Northern Cyprus,
Taiwan, D.A.R. of Sahrawi and Kosovo
EU as the principal diplomatic broker and peacekeeping actor: negotiations
on a ceasefire; the agreement on troop withdrawals; the deployment of the
EUMM Georgia in record time; and the co-hosting of the Geneva talks
EU MS have acted in unity and with determination
Maintaining equidistance while strengthening the “Europeanisation”
project
Working with Russia using the “soft power” diplomacy
Direct contact with the breakaway regions
Need to define a common strategy with the U.S.
Transnistria
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Contrary to other unresolved conflicts, it doesn’t involve an ethnic
component
Avoid transforming Transnistria into a Black Sea Kaliningrad
A sustainable solution for Transnistria is a precondition for RM’s becoming
a democratic and prosperous EU neigbouring country and to keep
momentum for RM’s European option
Proposals:
- A step-by-step economic and infrastructure-oriented approach
- Upgrade the status of the EU and US (currently observers) in the
mechanism of mediation
- Use the opportunities presented by the ENP-ESDP nexus: a possible
future civilian EU-led police monitoring mission with the participation of
neutral EU MS and non-EU states, including Russia and Ukraine
EC Proposed Future Actions in the Area
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Setting up long-term measurable objectives in key sectors
Forging partnerships for co-financing schemes
Involving Belarus in selected Black Sea Synergy activities
Strengthening the students’ and academics’ cooperation networks
Setting up the Black Sea Civil Society Forum
Setting up an Institute for European Studies
Academic research
Pop, Adrian (coordinator), Manoleli, Dan, Towards a
European Strategy in the Black Sea Area: The Territorial
Cooperation, Project SPOS 2007 – Strategy and policies
studies, European Institute of Romania, Bucharest, 2007.
http://www.ier.ro/documente/spos2007_en/Spos2007_stud
iu_4_en.pdf
EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood: Future EU
Eastern Border?