Transcript Industry Dynamics Analysis
OpenTTO.org - DILIGENT
Phase 3 – Industry Dynamics Analysis
IDA Objective Industry Forces Generic Strategic Vs Forces Analysing Structure and Dynamics Shaping The Industry Confidence Index
©2004 OpenTTO.org
Slide 1
IDA
Objective
Understand the context in which firms compete: • Understand the rules of the game • Predict competitors and their moves • Identify options & strategies to optimize value capture • Predict the likely reactions to the selection options.
Optimize the value-creation & value-capture strategy ©2004 OpenTTO.org
Slide 2
Industry Dynamics Analysis
Overview
1.0 CPA
3.1 Desc ribe Indu stry 3.2 Desc ribe Forc es
2.0 MVP
3.3 Wor ksho p Dyna mics is 3.0 IDA Deve lop Thes and Risk Anal ysis 3.6 Sum mari se Play er Dyna mics value of the IP and identify the options & strategies.
4.0 ADC
industry developed to give a view of the major agents who will influence the Supplier
2.0 MVP Business Leads Market Experts Industry Experts Researchers
Input
IP Map & Technology Roadmap Market Value Proposition Industry Description - Market Size, Growth, Structure 3.1
Process
3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6
Describe the Industry in which the IP will apply and the major sources of influence and power Describe the forces that will apply to the owner or developer of the IP in the nominated industry Workshop the dynamics of forces at play between players and technology in the industry Develop an Industry thesis of forces and behaviours relevant to the future potential and value of the IP Summarise the dynamics of the key players and their potential influence on the value of the IP Complete and review Confidence Index for IDA
Output
Industry View Key Players Value Implications Strategy Issues
Customer
4.O ADC Business Leads Governance ©2004 OpenTTO.org
Slide 3
IDA
Industry Forces The classic Porter model:
• The industry model is a subset of later cluster and country models Firm Strategy Structure and Rivalry Related and Supporting Industries Demand Conditions Factor Conditions Porter’s (1990) model of competitive advantage ©2004 OpenTTO.org
Slide 4
IDA
Porter's 5 Forces
SUPPLIER POWER
Supplier concentration Importance of volume to supplier Differentiation of inputs Impact of inputs on cost or differentiation Switching costs of firms in the industry Presence of substitute inputs Threat of forward integration Cost relative to total purchases in industry
BARRIERS TO ENTRY
Absolute cost advantages Proprietary learning curve Access to inputs Government policy Economies of scale Capital requirements Brand identity Switching costs Access to distribution Expected retaliation Proprietary products ©2004 OpenTTO.org
BUYER POWER
Bargaining leverage Buyer volume Buyer information Brand identity Price sensitivity Threat of backward integration Product differentiation Buyer concentration vs. industry Substitutes available Buyers' incentives
THREAT OF
-Switching costs
DEGREE OF RIVALRY
-Exit barriers -Industry concentration -Fixed costs/Value added -Industry growth -Intermittent overcapacity -Product differences -Switching costs -Brand identity -Diversity of rivals -Corporate stakes
SUBSTITUTES
-Buyer inclination to substitute -Price-performance trade-off of substitutes Slide 5
IDA
Generic Strategies Vs Forces
Industry Force Entry Barriers Buyer Power Supplier Power Cost Leadership Ability to cut price in retaliation discourages potential entrants.
Ability to offer lower price to powerful buyers.
Better insulated from powerful suppliers.
Generic Strategies Differentiation Customer loyalty can discourage potential entrants.
Large buyers have less power to negotiate because of few close alternatives.
Better able to pass on supplier price increases to customers.
Focus Focusing develops core competencies that can act as an entry barrier.
Large buyers have less power to negotiate because of few alternatives.
Suppliers have power because of low volumes, but a differentiation focused firm is better able to pass on supplier price increases.
Threat of Substitutes Can use low price to defend against substitutes.
Customer's become attached to differentiating attributes, reducing threat of substitutes.
Specialized products & core competency protect against substitutes.
Rivalry Better able to compete on price.
Brand loyalty to keep customers from rivals.
Rivals cannot meet differentiation-focused customer needs.
©2004 OpenTTO.org
Slide 6
IDA
Impact of Technology
Technology can change the playing field:
Technology
Capabilities • Speed • Cost • New value • New market Limitations • Ownership • Distribution • Performance • Government
3Cs
• Customer • Company • Competitor
4Ps
• Product • Price • Place • Promotion ©2004 OpenTTO.org
Slide 7
IDA
Suppliers and Inputs
S I P
Transform
O
Typical questions for suppliers and inputs:
C
Templates • Is the definition clear of what constitutes the “industry”?
• Is there information available about the nature of the industry?
• Are there trends regarding R&D expenditure and performance?
• Which knowledge created past competitive advantage?
• What outside views can shed light on industry dynamics?
• Is sufficient information known about generic firm strategies?
– Cost – Differentiation – Focus ©2004 OpenTTO.org
Slide 8
IDA
S
Process and Transformation
I P
Transform
O
Suggested analysis method:
C
Templates • Map the major industry forces • Map the periphery and the emerging players • Understand the emerging players – strategies and objectives • Hypothesis the major forces and trends • Link in the IP Map and the Technology Roadmap • Use the map and roadmap to confirm or remodel the forces • Consider the effect of the forces the “disciplined” firms • Consider the effect of the forces on the peripheral firms • Describe the role of the invention and its network • Identify the key players around the invention and the timing ©2004 OpenTTO.org
Slide 9
IDA
Analysing Structure and Dynamics
Typical detailed questions in support: • What is the size of the total industry market?
• How concentrated is it – market share held by largest firms?
• How competitive – what are the typical margins?
• Which lines of business provide the major sources of profit?
• Where are the threats to the incumbent players?
• Are the “disciplined” firms being challenged by new players? • What value would that destroy for the “disciplined” firms?
• What barriers are faced in getting there?
• Is technology or access to technology a key barrier?
• How high/low are the entry/exit barriers?
©2004 OpenTTO.org
Slide 10
IDA
Shaping the Industry
Key competitive moves shaping the industry are by: • Firms improving differentiation • Implementing key innovations in process and product • Creatively using channels of distribution • Exploiting relationships with suppliers • Customers lowering their switching costs • Firms raising the barriers to entry • Buyers increasing their power • Suppliers increasing their power • Government regulation changing the dynamics • New technology ©2004 OpenTTO.org
Slide 11
IDA
Outputs and Customers
S I P
Transform
O
Present the industry dynamics:
C
Templates • What are the compelling dynamics? • How do they impact on the value of the invention?
• Which players will likely be most attracted by the invention?
• What would be the “size” of their interest?
• What would be the nature of their attraction?
– Blocker, Builder, Developer, Exploiter • What would be the timing of their interest?
• What are they key resources they offer commercialization?
Document and prioritise the key dynamics which explain and underwrite the potential value of the invention to partners, who may be current or emerging.
©2004 OpenTTO.org
Slide 12
IDA
Summary
• Industry structure determines customer and competitor behaviour • Impact of Technology – Revenue and cost – Bundling – Intermediation – Cross-industry • Process to understand and influence the impact of technology – Describe current business model – Describe capabilities and limitation of the technology – Create alternative business models ©2004 OpenTTO.org
Slide 13
IDA
Templates
S I P O C
Transform
The IDA Phase Summary Report:
• Part of an evolving Business Plan • Contains at least: – Objective – Conclusion – Summary – Actions – Notes and carry-forward handover matters • Actions for further work may precede or run in parallel with the next Phase - ADC
Templates
©2004 OpenTTO.org
Slide 14
IDA Confidence Index
How confident are you that: 1. The industry with the most potential has been well understood?
2. The dynamic forces have been adequately determined?
3. Porter’s Five Forces have each been well explored?
4. The key fading firms and emerging firms have been identified?
5. The invention will be important to the industry dynamics?
6. The most prospective “target” companies have been identified?
7. Possible intentions of those companies have been identified?
8. The timing and resources necessary to go forward are clear?
9. The resources which partners may contribute are understood?
10. The technology should be taken to the next DILIGENT step?
©2004 OpenTTO.org
Slide 15