Transcript 1. dia - UNI-NKE

Comprehensive Approach
(CA) vs. (EBAO)
Effects Based Approach to Operations
LTC Tibor BABOS (Ph.D.)
DCOS, Chief Operations
25th ‘György Klapka’ Infantry Brigade
Hungarian Home Defense Forces
Tata, Hungary
CV
EDUCATION:
1998-04
Ph.D. in Security Policy, Miklós Zrínyi National Defense University, Hungary
Dissertation with Summa Cum Laude: “The Five Central Pillars of the European Security”
2002-03
#1 Master of Arts in National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, USA
Thesis: “The role of the Partnership for Peace Program and the State Partnership Program in the Process of NATO
Enlargement.
The Case of the Hungarian-Ohio Cooperation”
2002-03
#2 Master of Arts in International Security and Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, USA
Thesis: “Regulating the Intelligence System and Oversight in the Hungarian Constitutional Democracy”
1992-95
#3 Master of Arts in Strategic Intelligence, Miklós Zrínyi National Defense University, Hungary
Thesis: “Social Psychological Methods for Cognition of a Personality”
1992-93
Miklós Zrínyi General Staff Collage with concentration in Intelligence, Hungary
1986-89
#1 Bachelor of Arts in Intelligence with concentration in Long Range Special Operations and
#2 Bachelor of Science in Military Automotive Engineering, Lajos Kossuth Military College, Hungary
Thesis: “Development of Military Intelligence”
ASSIGNMENTS:
2009Chief Operations, Deputy Chief of Staff, 25th ‘György Klapka’ Infantry Brigade, Hungarian Home Defense Forces, Tata, Hungary
2005-09
Strategic Representative, Office of the Hungarian Military Representative to NATO and EU, NATO HQ, Brussels
2003-05
Chief Consultant, Defense Policy Department, Ministry of Defense
2001-03
Postgraduate Student, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, USA
2000-01
Deputy Head, Partnership Cooperation Branch, Ministry of Defense
1998-00
Deputy Head, NATO Relations Branch, Ministry of Defense
1995-98
Senior Military Intelligence Officer, Military Intelligence Office
1993-95
Graduate Student, National Defense University
1989-93
Long Range Reconnaissance Special Team Commander, Hungarian Defense Forces
COMMISSIONS:
2008-09
Dean, NATO Military Committee Strategic Representatives, NATO HQ, Brussels
2005-09
Chief Coordinator in Scientific Development
Deputy Chief of Hungarian Transformation
2003-05
Chief Coordinator in NATO/EU-Russia, NATO/EU-Ukraine, Mediterranean Dialogue, EUROMED and Iraq affairs
Chief Coordinator of the Political-Military Steering Committee, NATO HQ, Brussels
1999Hungarian Representative to PfP Consortium of Defense Academies and Strategic Studies Institutes
1999-01
Chief Coordinator of the NATO Membership Action Plan, Ministry of Defense
1999-00
Chief Coordinator of the Western European Union, Ministry of Defense
1997-98
Hungarian Representative to Intelligence Working Group on NATO Enlargement, NATO HQ, Brussels
OUTLINE
• Introduction
• ACT-video
• Basic points (ppt)
• Forum-like discussion • Pointing out key elements
• Escalating problems
• Suggesting ways out
TIMELINE
• 2002 – Prague Summit > NATO Transformation > Capabilities
• 2005 – CPG > §17 Effects Based Planning
• 2006 – Riga Summit > CA
• 2006 June 6 – Concept on EBAO by NATO MC/ACT
• 2008 – Bucharest Summit > Plan of Action and CA
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Planning and conduct of operations
Lessons learned, training, education and exercises
Enhancing cooperation with external actors
Public messaging
Stabilization and reconstruction
• 2009 – Strasbourg-Kehl Summit > Progress Report
”CA vs./& EBAO”
Operational spectrum
Level of involvement
Other Elements of Power
(political, economic, civil)
Comprehensive Approach
Military Power
Effect Based Approach to Operations
War fighting
Security
Stability
Reconstruction
INTEGRATED ”END STATE” APPOACH
BASIC MODEL
Mechanism (Cause)
Action (Tasks)
Effect (Result)
Mechanism (Cause)
Action (Tasks)
COMPLEX MIL. STRAT. MODEL
Improved Better identification of key Better prediction of PMESII
Better identification of
Better dialog and interaction
actions / capabilities
among relevant PMESII experts Situation
Information PMESII nodes and linkages reactions and behaviors
Awareness
required for desired effects
(Hq staff, JIACG, COEs)
within Area of Operation
Superiority within Area of Operation
and Knowledge
Management
Better prediction of
Better identification and
More accurate and faster
Situation
2nd, 3rd-order effects and
articulation of key
development of node-effectUnderstanding
unintended consequences
PMESII effects
action matrix
PROCESS
Improved Effects-Based
Planning Process
Better prioritization and
linkage of nodes-effects-actions
with Command Intent
More Effective
and Synchronized ETO
Greater % of targets and
effects within Daily ETO
contribute to Command Intent
Focused
Combat Power
Better synchronization of
effects and actions across
DIME options
Lower % of targets and
effects within Daily ETO
lead to unintended outcomes
More effective and efficient
use of military force
OUTCOME
Decision Making
Command and
Control Agility
Force
Agility
Greater synergy in achieving
National Security Objectives
”Transformational”
Perspective
”Dictatorial”
Perspective
”Network Centric”
Perspective
THEORY OF PLANNING VS. EXECUTION
NATO Effects – Based Approach to Operations
ASSUMED INTERNATIONAL AIM
P
L
A
N
N
I
N
G
NATO END - STATE
OBJECTIVES
OBJECTIVES
Military
NON - NATO AIMS
Political
Economic
Civil
EFFECTS
ACTIONS
NATO Instruments
NON - NATO Instruments
E
X
E
C
U
T
I
O
N
DYNAMIC ”NC” MODULE APPOACH
GRAVITATIONAL MODEL
CAPABILITY APPOACH
CIV. VS. MIL. STRUCTURES
USM-I / MNF-I Vertical Integration Structures and Key Tasks
Joint Campaign Plan
Legislation
Customs
Banking
Budget
WTO
AMB
USM-I
National Level GoI
Engagement/Operations
Policy & Strategy
Ministerial Capacity Development
HQ MNF-I
~1100
~1000
MNC-I
Provincial
Capacity
Development
USAID
(~350)
Provincial/Local Level
Engagement/Operations
Joint Campaign Plan
(Iraqi) Ministerial
Committee for National
Security
Iraq Nat’l Sec Strategy
Combat Operations
&
Programs:
Agriculture
Micro-Finance
CSP
VocationalEducation
Divisions
25x PRTs
(~500)
Tactical Missions:
(Coordination)
BCTs
Battalions
Company/Teams
~150K Troops
Seize
Secure
Patrol
Clear
”EFFECTS BASED TRANSFORMATION”
Transition
Period
Deconflict
Stitch Nation
Services & Cultures
Seams
Land
Forces
Air
Forces
SOF
Maritime
Forces
Deconflicting
Integration of NRF
Capabilities
Land
Forces
Air
Forces
Land
Forces
Air
Forces
SOF
Maritime
Forces
SOF
Maritime
Forces
Coordinating
Effects-Based,
Collaborative,
Network Centric and
Interdependent
Integrating
Attributes of a Transforming NATO Force
Coherence
CASE STUDY ”SERBIA”
Plan
Disrupt
Delivery of POL
Destroy Bridge 4
Effect
Destroy Bridge 6
Tasks
…desired behavioral outcomes.
Bridge 4 Destroyed
Indicators
Global
Situation
Awareness
Objectives
Tasks
Air & Space
Control
Force
Support
L
E
V
E
L
Bridge 6 Destroyed
A
N
A
L
Y
S
I
S
CRISIS
Physical effects that lead to…
T
A
S
K
Now
Force
Application
Force
Enhancement
CASE STUDY ”AFGHANISTAN” 1
Expansion North
Expansion West
- 2005
Start
Finish
Expansion South
- Dec 2003
- Jul 2006
- Kabul
- Expansion East
- Dec 2001
- Oct
20062006
?
CASE STUDY ”AFGHANISTAN” 2
Source: CSIS Burke Chair, “Developments in NATO and ISAF” Forces available from:
http://www.csis.org/images/stories/burke/090423_developments_nato-isaf_and_us_forces.pdf
CASE STUDY ”AFGHANISTAN” 3
Source: http://www.nato.int/isaf/docu/epub/pdf/placemat.pdf
CASE STUDY ”AFGHANISTAN” 4
Source: http://www.nato.int/isaf/docu/epub/pdf/placemat.pdf
CASE STUDY ”AFGHANISTAN” 5
2011 ???
Expansion North - Dec 2003
Expansion West - 2005
Start - Kabul - Dec 2001
Finish - Expansion East - Oct
20062006
?
Expansion South - Jul 2006
CASE STUDY ”IRAQ VS. AFGHANISTAN”
”…oooops”
”…now watz da plain?”
SUGGESTIONS
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Both military and non-military capabilities must be
transformed
Definition of ”Engagement Space”
Lack of political will will kill both CA and EBAO
An effects based approach to the Comprehensive
Approach is imperative
EBAO is part of CA
Understanding multinationality and sectorial
differences (resources, cultures) in CA/EBAO
Overall integrated CA/EBAO is needed
The End
LTC Tibor BABOS (Ph.D.)
Chief Operations, DCOS
25th György Klapka Infantry Brigade
Hungarian Home Defense Forces
Tata, Hungary
Email: [email protected]
Phone: +36-34-589-111
”Strategy is the art of making use of time and space. Space we can recover, lost time never.”