Transcript LED Supply/Demand Outlook
LED Supply/Demand Outlook
October 25 - 27, 2010 San Diego Convention Center, San Diego, CA, US Pira Intertech Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
Outline
• State of LED Supply – Regional – LED Manufacturer – LED Tool Maker • LED Demand – Small/Medium Displays – Large Area Displays – Lighting – Automotive/Signaling – Others • Supply/Demand – Reactor Forecast • Forecast Deviations Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 2
LED Supply
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
Supply Model
• Methodology – Survey Tool Makers and LED Producers by: – Tool Model • Capacity • Install Dates • Bookings – Model the production based on: • Average Die Size/application • Yields/Application – Epi – Binning • Calculate Runs/day • Apply – Fab Utilization – Packaging Yield • Results – Fab/Wafer Capacity – Epi Yield – Binned Die Capability – Production by • Tool Maker • LED Producer • Region • Wafer • Application Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 4
MOCVD Installed Base
• MOCVD tool count will grow by 50% from 2009 to 2010 Reactors 3500 80% Y/Y Growth Q/Q Growth 70% 3000 60% 2500 50% 2000 40% 1500 30% 1000 20% 500 10% 0 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 0% Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 5
MOCVD Installed Base by Region
• Chinese government supporting tool purchases: – 13 regional industrial bases – Land/Tax Abatements – US$1.1m to US$1.8M tool subsidies Taiwan Korea Japan USA China Europe 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 6
MOCVD Supplier Installs
• New tool shipments and capacity growing exponentially in 2010
Company
Aixtron Veeco Nippon Sanso Other
Total
Q/Q Growth Y/Y Growth
Q2'09
15 7 0 0
22 Q3'09
41 22 75 0
138 Q4'09
70 36 75 0
181
31%
Q1'10
101 48 75 0
224
24%
Q2'10
130 81 225 7
443
98% 1914%
Q3'10e
159 100 225 12
496
12% 259% Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 7
Wafer Capacity (000)
• Wafer size shifting from 2” and 3” to 4” • 6” wafers increase market share in terms of capacity
Wafer Size
2" 3" 4" 6"
Total 2009
45255 5070 11130 356
61812 Wafer (000) 2010
60751 4378 30257 1710
97096 Growth
34% -14% 172% 380%
57% 2009 Share
73% 8% 18% 1%
100% 2010 Share
63% 5% 31% 2%
100% Wafer Size
2" 3" 4" 6"
Total sq. m (000) 2009 Area 2010 Area
92 23 90 6
212
123 20 245 31
420 Growth
34% -14% 172% 380%
98% 2009 Share
43% 11% 43% 3%
100% 2010 Share
29% 5% 58% 7%
100%
Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 8
Die Capacity(m) and Growth
Total Q/Q Growth Y/Y Growth 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Q4'10 0% Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 9
Binned Die(m)and Growth
• Includes epi and binned die yields 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Total Y/Y Growth Q/Q Growth 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential -20% 10
Binned Die – Regional Share
Taiwan Japan USA Korea China Europe 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential Q3'10 11
Leading Manufacturers of LED Die (m)
• Binned Die Production Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company
Nichia LG Group Epistar HUGA Tekcore Samsung LED Epivalley Seoul Opto Forepi Genesis Photonics Others
Total Q1'09
1099 259 609 326 382 328 525 92 369 391 4037
8417 Q2'09
1099 261 623 339 382 337 528 97 369 391 4050
8478 Q3'09
1099 281 629 351 382 351 533 105 369 391 4094
8586 Die (m) Q4'09
1099 373 714 430 397 390 533 123 385 391 4211
9046 Q1'10
1118 399 636 467 421 399 502 133 392 369 3926
8762 Q2'10
1279 619 730 641 535 516 521 348 445 411 4686
10731 Q3'10
1636 836 773 749 713 625 620 554 487 427 5726
13148
Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 12
Taiwan LED Revenues (TWD)
• Taiwan LED m/m revenues down in Oct/Sept. 2010 due to LED (LCD) TV inventories 2009 2010 2009 Growth 2010 Growth 50% 5000 40% 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Source: Company Reports Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 13
LED Demand
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
Demand Model
• Demand Sources – Backlights • LCD TVs • Notebooks • Monitors • Small/Medium Displays – Camera Flashes – Illumination Products • Residential • Commercial • Industrial • Outdoor – Automotive/Display/Others Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 15
Small/Medium Display Demand
30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2009 2010 2011 Panel Shipments LED Shipments Shipment Growth LED Growth 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 16
Large Area Displays
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2009 2010 2011 Notebook CRT LCD (LED) Other Monitors LCD (CCFL) PDP LED 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: YMR/IMS Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 17
LED Backlit L/A Panels & LED Growth
L/A LED Displays L/A LED Display Growth LED Growth 70% 1200 60% 1000 800 600 400 50% 40% 30% 20% 200 0 2009 2010 2011 10% 2012 0% 2013 2014 2015 Source: YMR/IMS Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 18
Converting from Traditional to SSL
Output (lm) Power (W) Electrical Efficiency Thermal Efficiency Optical Efficiency LED Degradation Luminaire Efficiency Cost per LED
2010
80 1.0
90% 90% 90% 6% 69% $1.50
2011
88 1.0
91% 91% 91% 6% 71% $1.35
2012
97 1.0
92% 92% 92% 6% 73% $1.22
2013
106 1.0
93% 93% 93% 6% 76% $1.09
2014
117 1.0
94% 94% 94% 6% 78% $0.98
2015
129 1.0
95% 95% 95% 6% 81% $0.89
$250.00
$200.00
$150.00
$100.00
$50.00
$ Incandescent 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CFL Fluorescent HID Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 19
Lighting Shipments(m) by Application
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2011 Luminaires 2012 2013 2014 Outdoor Industrial Commercial Residential Lamps 2015 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential Outdoor Industrial Commercial Residential 2015 20
Lighting Shipment Share by Technology
Luminaires Incandescent Fluorescent CFL High Intensity 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Lamps Incandescent Fluorescent CFL High Intensity 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 2015 21
Conversion from Traditional to SSL
Luminaires (m) Residential Industrial Commercial Outdoor Lamps (m) Residential Industrial Commercial Outdoor 250 200 150 100 50 450 400 350 300 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 22
LED Shipments (m) and Share
80000 Shipments (m) Residential Industrial Commercial Outdoors Share Residential Industrial Commercial Outdoors 70000 100% 90% 80% 60000 50000 40000 70% 60% 50% 40% 30000 30% 20000 20% 10000 10% 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 23
LED/Traditional Lamp – Annual Shipments
Trad. Lamps SSL Share SSL Lamps 90000 80000 30% 25% 70000 60000 50000 20% 15% 40000 30000 10% 20000 5% 10000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0% Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 24
LED Demand – Automotive/Signals/Other
30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2009 2010 2011 Other Signals/Automotive Growth 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 25
LED Supply/Demand
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
LED Demand and Growth
60% 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2015 0% Source: YMR/IMS Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 27
LED Supply/Demand
Binned Die (m) Supply Binned Die (m) Demand @105% Die Glut (m) @105% of demand 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 -50,000 -100,000 -150,000 2009 2010 Supply Fixed at 2010 Levels 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 28
Reactor Demand Forecast
Base 3 per. Mov. Avg. (Base) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2009 128 2010 1447 774 2011 2012 1457 1482 691 2013 2014 2015 299 Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 29
Forecast Deviations
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
CNT Based Backlight Replacement
Replacement Characteristics • Catalyst -- metallic nanoparticles are embedded in a matrix • Thin – .5 mm glass – <1 mm spacers • • Eliminates – color filter Provides local dimming • • Redundant Emitters Progressive scan capability • • • No gate requirement Cost issues using HFCVD equipment, potential for printing High Voltage Anode (~10-15 kV) • High Luminance Forecast
Penetration
TVs CNT
LEDs (m) 5%
195 10
4875 10%
225 23
10125 15%
250 38
15188
Source: YMR/Motorola Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 31
AMOLED TVs
• Samsung (SMD) expected to announce 8 th dedicated to OLED TVs – Timeframe – 2012-2013 installation Gen Fab – 18 40” panels/substrate – Target Capacity • Year 1 -- 30k substrates/month • Year 2 -- 60k substrates/month • Year 3 -- 90k substrates/month – LG Display, AUO, Panasonic, Chinese likely to follow • Forecast (40” panels/year)
OLED
Fab 1 Fab 2 Fab 3 Total (000)
LEDs (m) 2013
1593 1593
797 2014
8295 1593 9888
4449 2015
13704 8295 8295 30293
12269
Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 32
OLED Lighting
• Current Status – >15 companies developing prototypes and pilot lines, including • Philips – Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent • Osram Opto -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent • GE – Solution Based Phosphorescent, R-T-R • Panasonic -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent • Konica Minolta -- Solution Based Phosphorescent, R-T-R • Lumiotec -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent • Zumtobel/Thorne Lighting/Ledon/Fraunhofer – Polymer Based • Mitsubishi/Pioneer -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent, 2 nd • Moser Baer -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent • Samsung -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent, 2 nd Gen Fab • LG -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent • ModisTech – Polymer, R-T-R • NEC Lighting -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent – Target Size Substrate • 2 nd • 4 th Gen 2010 Gen 2012 Gen Fab Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 33
OLED Lighting
Primary Market
• Currently, OLED lighting is limited to demonstration programs and decorative/architectural lighting.
• Future – 3 to 5 years away – Fluorescent Luminaire Replacements – Integrated into acoustic ceiling tiles – Compete with LEDs Source: Osram Opto Source: Lumiotec Source: Lumiotec Source: Acuity Brands Source: General Electric Source: Philips Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 34
OLED Lighting
• Assumptions – Production Capacity 250x250 mm Substrates (000) Utilization Yields
Production (m) 2013
16 360 70% 50%
2 730x920 2014
16 720 80% 75%
7 2015
16 1080 85% 85%
12
– Performance 10" 12" 14"
sq. m
0.063
0.093
0.126
– LED/OLED Replacement
cd/m2
3000 4000 5000
LEDs
per Luminaire Luminaires (m) Lamps (m) Total (m)
Total LEDs (m)
OLED Share (m)
Total LEDs (m)
OLED Fabs
lumens
589 1167 1986
Lm/W
100 110 120
W
5.9
10.6
16.6
$/klm
255 171 126
2013
26 9 126 135
3522
7
176
4
2014
23 9 327 336
7730
34
773
5
2015
20 11 666 677
13535
102
2030
9 Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 35
Impact of CNT & OLEDs on MOCVD Installs
Plan Difference Deviation % Change 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -50% -100% -150% -200% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 36
Questions [email protected]
YMR Produces : Quarterly High Brightness LED Supply and Supply/Demand Report
Available from IMS Research
Quarterly Model for Solid State Lighting (SSL) Adoption LED Material Report (under construction) OLED Lighting & Display Report (under construction) Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential