Transcript Employment Outlook: 2004-2014

Where the Jobs Are
Adapted from: National Career Development Association
Global Conference 2007 presentation: 2004-14 Employment
Outlook from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Terry Schau, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Used with permission.
1
The BLS Projections Process
 10 year projections; updated every
two years
 Projections are based on a long-term
view of the economy
 States underlying assumptions clearly
and presents model-based findings
 Assumes a long-run full-employment
economy
2
Employment Outlook: 2004-14
Industry output and employment
• Occupational employment
3
Service-providing industries continue
to lead employment growth
Millions of nonagriculture wage-and-salary jobs
129
110
92
23
22
22
Goods producing
1994
2004
2014,
projected
Service providing
1994
2004
2014,
projected
4
Goods-producing and service-providing
industries by share of total employment
and output, 2004
Percent
Nonagriculture wage and salary
employment
Output
75.8
66.7
27.3
15.0
Goods producing
Service providing
5
Two industry sectors—manufacturing and
financial activities—accounted for more than
one third of total output in 2004
Billions of dollars
Manufacturing
Financial activities
Professional and business services
State and local government
Health care and social assistance
Retail trade
Construction
Information
Wholesale trade
Federal Government
Leisure and hospitality
Transportation and warehousing
Other services
Utilities
Mining
Educational services, private
4,387
2,556
2,058
1,581
1,305
1,147
1,034
1,005
983
807
766
606
486
Service providing
360
Goods producing
241
172
6
Nearly 27 percent of all workers held jobs in
State and local government and in professional
and business services in 2004
Thousands of nonfarm wage-and-salary jobs, 2004
State and local government
Professional and business services
Retail trade
Manufacturing
Health care and social assistance
Leisure and hospitality
Financial activities
Construction
Other services
Wholesale trade
Transportation & warehousing
Information
Educational services, private
Federal Government
Utilities
Mining
18,891
16,414
15,035
14,330
14,187
12,479
8,052
6,965
6,210
5,655
4,250
3,183
2,766
Service providing
2,728
570
523
Goods producing
7
Wage and salary employment growth by
industry sector, projected 2004-14
Employment change in thousands
4,566
4,295
Professional and business services
Health care and social assistance
2,215
2,128
1,649
Leisure and hospitality
State and local government
Retail trade
Educational services, private
Financial activities
Construction
Other services
Transportation and warehousing
Wholesale trade
Information
898
849
792
734
506
476
364
-8
Mining -46
-777
Manufacturing
Utilities
Service providing
Goods producing
8
Employment growth can be viewed
in two ways
Projected, 2004-14
State and local government educational services
Home health care services
1,225,000
70
537,000
12
Percent change
Numerical change
9
The 10 detailed industries with the
fastest-growing wage and salary
employment, projected 2004-14
Percent change
Educational support services, private
79
70
Home health care services
68
Software publishers
61
Management, scientific, and technical consulting services
55
Community care facilities for the elderly
Outpatient care centers, except mental health and substance abuse
50
Residential mental health and substance abuse facilities
50
Offices of all other health practitioners
49
Residential mental retardation facilities
47
Facilities support services
47
10
The 10 detailed industries with the
largest wage and salary employment
growth, projected 2004-14
Employment change, in thousands
Employment services
1,580
Local government educational services
783
Local government, excluding education and hospitals
764
Offices of physicians
760
701
Full-service restaurants
648
General medical and surgical hospitals, private
592
Limited-service eating places
537
Home health care services
Colleges, universities, and professional schools, private
Management, scientific, & technical consulting services
472
471
11
The industries with the most
projected job losses
Employment change in thousands, projected 2004-14
-168 Wired telecommunications carriers
-140 Cut and sew apparel manufacturing
Printing and related support activities
-65
Fabric mills
-56
Semiconductor & other electronic component mfg
Crop production, primary job
-53
-48
Basic chemical manufacturing
-46
Rubber product manufacturing
-40
Foundries
-38
Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing
-37
12
Employment Outlook: 2004-14
• Industry output and employment
Occupational employment
13
Wage and salary jobs will account
for most of the employment growth
Millions of jobs
Wage and salary
Self-employed and unpaid family workers
164.5
145.6
129.2
12.4
12.1
12.7
116.5
1994
133.5
2004
152.1
2014,
projected
14
Employment in 8 of 10 major occupational groups are projected to
increase
Percent change, projected 2004-14
21
Professional and related
19
Service
14
Management, business, and financial
12
Construction and extraction
Installation, maintenance, and repair
11
Transportation and material moving
11
Sales and related
10
6
Office and administrative support
Production
-.7
Farming, fishing, and forestry
-1
15
Professional workers account for
more than 3 out of 10 new jobs
Employment change in thousands, projected 2004-14
6,046
Professional and related
5,257
Service
2,155
Management, business, and financial
Sales and related
1,476
Office and administrative support
1,380
1,116
Transportation and material moving
931
Construction and extraction
657
Installation, maintenance, and repair
Farming, fishing, and forestry
-13
Production -79
16
7 of the 10 fastest growing detailed
occupations are health related, 3
are computer related
Percent change, projected 2004-14
56
Home health aides
55
Network systems and data communications analysts
52
Medical assistants
50
Physician assistants
48
Computer software engineers, applications
Physical therapist assistants
44
Dental hygienists
43
Computer software engineers, systems software
43
Dental assistants
43
Personal and home care aides
41
17
The 10 occupations projected to
add the most new jobs
Employment change in thousands, projected 2004-14
Retail salespersons
736
Registered nurses
703
Customer service representatives
471
440
Janitors and cleaners
376
Waiters and waitresses
Food preparation/serving workers
350
Home health aides
Nursing aides
General & operations mgrs.
367
325
308
Personal & home care aides 287
18
Occupational employment declines
often stem from technological change
Numerical change in thousands, projected 2004-14
Farmers and ranchers
-155
Stock clerks and order fillers
-115
-93
Sewing machine operators
-93
File clerks
-63
Order clerks
-59
-49
-48
Mail clerks and mail machine operators,
except postal service
Computer operators
Secretaries except legal,
medical, and executive
-43
Telemarketers
-42
Cutting, punching, and press machine setters,
operators, and tenders, metal and plastic
19
Top 10 highest earning, high-growth
occupations
Percent
employment
growth
2004 earnings
Physicians and surgeons
Chief executives
Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers
Dentists, general
$145,600
24
140,350
15
129,250
123,060
17
14
102,030
14
Engineering managers
97,630
13
Lawyers
94,930
15
Podiatrists
94,400
16
Computer and information systems managers
92,570
26
Natural science managers
88,660
14
Air traffic controllers
20
High-wage, high-growth occupations
that are projected to add at least
100,000 new jobs
New
jobs
Thousands of jobs, projected 2004-14
$145,600
Physicians and surgeons
Lawyers
94,930
136
110
79,740
146
General and operations managers
77,420
308
Computer software engineers, applications
74,980
222
Computer systems analysts
66,460
153
Management analysts
63,450
122
Network systems and data communications analysts
60,600
126
Network and computer systems administrators
58,190
107
Business operations specialists, all other
53,460
242
Computer software engineers, systems software
21
High-wage, high-growth occupations
with the largest projected job growth
2004
median
earnings
Employment in thousands, projected 2004-14
703
Registered nurses
524
Postsecondary teachers
308
General and operations managers
$52,330
51,800
77,420
Elementary school teachers
265
43,160
Accountants and auditors
264
50,770
Business operation specialists, all other
242
53,460
222
74,980
Computer software engineers, applications
Maintenance and repair workers, general
202
30,710
Carpenters
186
34,900
Computer systems analysts 153
66,460
22
High-wage, high-growth occupations
with the fastest projected job growth
Percent growth, projected 2004-14
2004
median
earnings
55
Data communications analysts
Physician assistants
50
48
Computer software engineers, applications
$60,600
69,410
74,980
Physical therapist assistants
44
37,890
Dental hygienists
43
58,350
Computer software engineers, systems software
43
Computer systems administrators
38
Database administrators
38
Physical therapists
37
Forensic science technicians
36
79,740
58,190
60,650
60,180
44,010
23
Education and Training Pay
Unemployment rate in 2005
1.6
1.1
2.1
2.6
3.3
4.2
4.7
7.6
Median weekly earnings in 2005
$1,420
Doctoral degree
1,365
Professional degree
1,125
Master’s degree
Bachelor’s degree
904
677
Associate degree
Some college, no
degree
High school graduate
Some high school,
no diploma
605
545
392
NOTE: Unemployment and earnings for workers 25 and older, by educational attainment;
earnings for full-time wage and salary workers.
24
Top 10 occupations generally requiring short-term
on-the-job training that are projected to grow
faster than average, by earnings
2004 median annual earnings
Riggers
$35,330
Traffic technicians
33,670
Transportation workers, all other
32,170
31,750
Human resource assistants, except payroll and timekeeping
Court, municipal, and license clerks
28,430
Parking enforcement workers
28,370
Bill and account collectors
Tree trimmers and pruners
27,450
26,150
Costume attendants
25,050
Healthcare support workers, all other
24,990
25
Top 10 occupations generally requiring moderateterm on-the-job training that are projected to
grow faster than average, by earnings
2004 median annual earnings
$58,580
Sales representatives, technical and scientific products
49,290
Subway and streetcar operators
47,000
Sales representatives, services, all other
46,340
Railroad conductors and yardmasters
41,120
All other communication equipment workers
40,300
Advertising sales agents
Camera operators, television and video
Bailiffs
37,610
33,870
Hazardous materials removal workers
33,320
Audio-visual collections specialists
32,990
26
Top 10 occupations generally requiring longterm on-the-job training that are projected to
grow faster than average, by earnings
2004 median annual earnings
Air traffic controllers
$102,030
Elevator installers and repairers
58,710
48,310
Athletes and sports competitors
Insurance appraisers, auto damage
45,330
Police and sheriff’s patrol officers
45,210
Claims adjusters, examiners, and investigators
44,220
Flight attendants
43,440
Structural iron and steel workers
42,430
Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters
41,290
Media and communications, all other
40,850
27
Top 10 occupations generally requiring an
associate degree that are projected to
grow faster than average, by earnings
2004 median annual earnings
Computer specialists, all other
$59,480
Nuclear technicians
59,200
Dental hygienists
58,350
Radiation therapists
57,700
Nuclear medicine technologists
56,450
Diagnostics medical sonographers
52,490
Registered nurses
52,330
Forensic science technicians
44,010
Radiologic technologists/technicians
43,350
Respiratory therapists
43,140
28
Top 10 occupations generally requiring a
bachelor’s degree or higher that are projected
to grow faster than average, by earnings
2004 median annual earnings
$145,600
Physicians and surgeons
140,350
Chief executives
Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers
123,060
Dentists, general
Engineering managers
97,630
Lawyers
94,930
Podiatrists
94,400
Computer/information system mgrs.
129,250
92,570
Natural sciences managers
88,660
Optometrists
88,410
29
Where to go for more information
on the BLS 2004-14 projections
 Employment Projections Internet site:
www.bls.gov/emp
 Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2006-07 Edition:
www.bls.gov/oco
 Career Guide to Industries, 2006-07 Edition:
www.bls.gov/cg
 Occupational Projections & Training Data, 2006-07
Edition: www.bls.gov/emp/optd/home.htm
 “Charting the Projections: 2004-14” in the Occupational
Outlook Quarterly, Winter 2005-06 issue:
www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/ooqhome.htm
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Where the Jobs Are
Questions?
31