Transcript 69th Session of the CoC- Review of the Scale Methodology

United Nations International Programme for
Short-term Statistics
Training Workshop on the Compilation of Quarterly National Accounts
for Economic Cooperation Organization Member Countries
8-11 March 2015
Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran
United Nations Statistics Division
Outline of Presentation
 Background and origin
 Overview and objectives
 Status
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Background and origin
 40th session of UNSC called for swift and coordinated statistical
initiatives in response to global economic and financial crisis
 UNSD organized 3 international seminars in collaboration with
Eurostat, Statistics Canada, Statistics Netherlands and Russian
Federal State Statistics Service
• Ottawa, Canada (27-29 May 2009)
• Scheveningen, Netherlands (14-16 December 2009)
• Moscow, Russian Federation (17-19 November 2010)
 European Colloquium in Luxembourg (26-29 September 2010)
also discussed statistical initiatives in response to the crisis
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Background and origin
 Outcome: An international work programme for short-term
statistics with 4 themes was developed for consideration by
UNSC
• Cyclical composite indicators
• Economic tendency surveys
• Rapid estimates
• Data template and analytical indicators
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Background and origin
 Each theme was led by a working group
• Cyclical composite indicators
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Statistics Netherlands (lead agency)
Eurostat
Conference Board
UNSD
• Economic tendency surveys
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UNSD (lead agency)
Eurostat
European Commission
OECD
KOF-ETH Zurich
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Background and origin
• Rapid estimates
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Eurostat (lead agency)
Statistics Netherlands
UNSD
• Data template and analytical indicators
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UNSD (lead agency)
Eurostat
NSOs of Brazil and India
 42nd session of UNSC agreed with proposed international work
programme
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Overview and objectives
Cyclical composite indicators
 Cyclical composite indicators
• Address ongoing concerns in respect of assessing shortterm changes in economic activities
• Serve as integral part of early warning system by providing
information on occurrence and timing of economic upturns
and downturns
 Aims to provide best practices and harmonized principles on
compilation and reporting of cyclical composite indicators
 No existing international statistical guidance
 Key deliverables
• Handbook on cyclical composite indicators
• Inventory of country practices through a global assessment
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Overview and objectives
Economic tendency surveys
 Economic tendency surveys
• Provide qualitative information that cannot be collected
using quantitative statistical methods
• Provide cost-effective means of generating timely
information on short-term economic developments
• Serve as integral part of early warning system
 Aims to provide best practices and harmonized principles on
tendency survey sample selection, questionnaire design,
survey questions, survey execution, data processing and use of
composite tendency indicators
 Key deliverable
• Handbook on economic tendency surveys
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Overview and objectives
Rapid estimates
 Rapid estimates
• Are available with relatively shorter time lag
• Provide first official assessment of short-term changes in
economic activities
 Aims to develop international statistical guidelines on best
practices and harmonized principles on compilation and
reporting of rapid estimates of key macroeconomic indicators
 No existing international statistical guidance
 Key deliverables
• Glossary of terms
• Handbook on rapid estimates
• Inventory of country practices through a global assessment
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Overview and objectives
Data template and analytical indicators
 Aims to establish internationally-accepted data and metadata
template for short-term statistics for use in
• Macroeconomic surveillance
• Early warning of economic and financial vulnerabilities
• Detection of turning points in business cycles
 Key deliverables
• Internationally-accepted data template with corresponding
metadata
• Handbook on data template and metadata for short-term
statistics
• Updated knowledge base on economic statistics
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Overview
 Data template for short-term statistics
Indicator description
Set 1: National accounts
Quarterly national accounts: Flash
1.1
GDP estimate
Quarterly national accounts: GDP
1.2
full release
1.2.1
by expenditure
1.2.2
by production
1.2.3
by income
1.3
Quarterly sector accounts
Tier
Periodicity
Tier 1
Quarterly
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
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Overview and objectives
 Data template for short-term statistics
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
Set 2: Production and turnover
Production index for industry, by major division (mining,
manufacturing, electricity, water, etc.)
Production index for construction
Turnover index for retail trade by major division
Turnover index for industry by major division
Turnover index for other services by major division
(excluding financial services and non-commercial
services)
New orders index for industry by major ISIC division
(for those that work on order)
New orders index for construction (building permits or
housing starts)
Commodity production as relevant and other indicators
of economic activity
Agricultural products
Minerals
New car registrations/sales
New commercial vehicle registrations/sales
Tourist arrivals
Tier 1 Monthly
Tier 2 Monthly
Tier 2 Monthly
Tier 2 Monthly
Tier 2 Monthly
Tier 3 Monthly
Tier 2 Monthly
Tier 3 Monthly
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Overview and objectives
 Data template for short-term statistics
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
Set 3: Prices
Consumer price index
Producer price index
Import price index
Export price index
Set 4: Labour market
Unemployment
Unemployment rate
Employment total and by economic
activity
Hourly wage rate
Hours of work
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Tier 1
Tier 1
Quarterly
Quarterly
Tier 1
Quarterly
Tier 2
Tier 2
Quarterly
Quarterly
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Overview and objectives
 Chapter 1: Data template for short-term statistics
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Set 5: External sector
Exports and imports (of goods and services)
Tier 1 Monthly
International investment position (IIP), specify balances
Tier 2 Quarterly
and components
Official reserve assets
Tier 1 Monthly
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External debt (by sector, maturity and foreign currency)
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5
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
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Set 6: Financial sector
Central Bank net foreign assets
Central Bank domestic lending
Central Bank reserve money
Depository corporations net foreign assets
Depository corporations domestic lending
Depository corporations broad money liabilities
Other financial corporations balance sheet, assets and
liabilities by sector.
Financial corporate profits
Financial corporate debt
Others as relevant: nonperforming loans of depository
corporations, capital adequacy ratios, other financial
stability indicators, etc.
Tier 1 Quarterly
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Tier 2 Monthly
Tier 2 Quarterly
Tier 2 Monthly
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Overview and objectives
 Chapter 1 (Data template for short-term statistics)
7.1
7.2
7.3
Set 7: General government sector
Revenue
Expense
Net operating balance (= Revenue –
Expense)
Tier 1
Tier 1
Monthly
Monthly
Tier 1
Monthly
7.4
Net acquisition of non-financial assets
Tier 2
Quarterly
7.5
Expenditure
Net lending/net borrowing (= Revenue Expenditure)
Gross debt
Set 8: Household sector
Household disposable income
Household saving
Household debt
Other as relevant: debt service and
principal payments, and defaults on
home mortgages, credit card debt and
car loans etc.
Tier 2
Quarterly
Tier 2
Quarterly
Tier 2
Quarterly
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
7.6
7.7
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
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Overview and objectives
 Data template for short-term statistics
Set 11: Real estate market
11.1 Residential property price index
11.2 New house sales
11.3 Existing house sales
Set 12: Economic sentiment
12.1 Consumer confidence
12.2 Business confidence
12.3 Composite Business Cycle Indicators
12.3.1
Leading Indicator
12.3.2
Coincident Indicator
12.3.3
Lagging Indicator
Tier 2 Quarterly
Tier 3 Monthly
Tier 3 Monthly
Tier 2 Monthly
Tier 2 Monthly
Tier 3 Monthly
Tier 3 Monthly
Tier 3 Monthly
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Status
 Activities including the preparation of handbooks under each of
the 4 themes are in various stages of progress under the aegis
of a steering group on short-term statistics comprising
• Statistics Canada
• Statistics Netherlands
• Russian Federal State Statistics Service
• UNSD
• Eurostat
 First draft of handbook on economic tendency surveys was
circulated for global consultation in June 2014
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Thank You
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