Transcript Farming Fuel From the Land

Farming Fuel From the Land
The UK Perspective:
An example to follow or Avoid?
Sir Ben Gill CBE MA (Cantab)
Clonmel Park Hotel, Tipperary
March 7th 2007
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Looking outside the box
FINISHED FILES ARE THE RESULT OF MANY YEARS OF SCIENTIFIC STUDY COMBINED WITH THE
EXPERIENCE OF MANY YEARS.
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Background data: US Bioethanol
At December 31st 2006
• 116 plants in production using 53 million tonnes maize p.a.
• 79 plants are under construction need 51 million tonnes p.a.
• 11 plants undergoing expansion: additional 8 million tonnes p.a.
• Total maize demand at end of 2007; 112 million tonnes p.a.
• Circa 200 plants currently at planning stage
• If built at same rate as in past would create need for additional 27
million tonnes of maize by 2008
• Giving potential 2008 maize demand for bioethanol of
– 139 million tonnes
– Equals 50% of current US maize production
– Equals 6% of current US oil needs
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Background data : China
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Planned objective to use 25% of oil needs from biofuels by 2020
China is now the 3rd largest importer of oil after the USA and Japan
In 2006 China imported 36.4 million tonnes of oil
16% increase on 2005
China is currently building 40 international airports
Boeing is building a factory in China to meet the demand fro new
aeroplanes
• Car congestion has become a major issue in the cities with very
subsidized public transport to persuade people away from the car
• Air pollution in China has become such an issue that there are
suggestions that major factories will have to be shut down for
several months before the Olympics next year to create an
acceptable air standard
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China’s Changing Face
• Population growth:
– 2000
– 2005
1,265,000,000
1,306,000,000 (+41 million)
• Distribution:
– Urban
562 million
– + 88 million in 5 years
– Rural
744 million
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China assumes ever greater
Influence in World affairs
Foreign exchange reserves now exceed $1 trillion
Boeing building a new factory specifically for the Chinese market
New car registrations + 76%
Now the largest user of mineral resources (except oil) in the world
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Background data : Davros 2007
• Esso CEO Tillerson confirmed the reality of global warming after
spending $1 billion on research to disprove it
• Added that
– Current carbon energy consumption (including coal) = 230 million
barrels p.d.
– Global projections to 2030 suggest a 50% increase to 345 million
barrels p.d.
• Sir Nicholas Stern confirmed these figures and
– We need to reduce today’s CO2 emissions by 30% to avoid a
catastrophe
– We will need to reduce 2030 CO2 figures by 80% to avoid a
catastrophe
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Background data : US Budget 2008
• USDA will spend in the year 2008 $397 million on energy projects
– Plus $161 million compared to 2007
– Of this $ 132 million will be for rural development renewable energy
investments through guaranteed loans and grants
– The remaining $29 million will be for Research & Development to
• Enhance bioenergy feedstocks
• Improve conversion technologies for cellulosic ethanol
• Total USDA expenditure in 2008 will be $89 billion of which
– ¾ or $67 billion will be on mandatory support programmes
• Thai expenditure is in spite of the strong oil lobby and the
opposition of President Bush to climate change mitigation
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Background data : Targets
• EU Biofuels
– to assume 10% of the market by 2020
– Wheat and grain consumption for biofuels to rise from
• 2006: 1.9 million tonnes to
• 2013 18.6 million tonnes
– Plus a strong expansion of demand for sugar beet for bioethanol
• Irish renewable fuels
– 5.75% by 2009
• To save 700,000 tonnes of carbon p.a.
• Or 200,000 cars
– Aim of 10% by 2020
– Renewable electricity targets introduced in 2006 should produce a
saving of 2 million tonnes of CO2 by 2009
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Background data :
2nd Generation Biofuels
• Research at Carnegie Mellon University on advanced technologies
claims to have reduced energy production costs by 60% by
• Redesign of the distillation process using a multi column system
and a steam network recovery system so reducing steam
consumption
• This is claimed to reduce the cost of ethanol production from
$1.61/ US gallon to $$1.43/US gallon
• OR €0.324 per litre to €0.288 per litre
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Key Drivers for change (1)
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Population growth
– China
– Asia
– Africa
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Wealth changes
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China
India & the rest of Asia
Russia
South America
Plus movement from rural
Subsistence farming to
Urban dwellers
Increased demand for protein as
Chicken and Pigmeat increases
Demand for cereals
Changed Economic leaders
– Demise of USA
– Rise of China and India
– Oil Power
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US DEBT
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Key drivers for Change (2)
• Climate Change
– Greenhouse Gases
• Carbon dioxide
• Methane
• Nitrous oxide
– Changed weather patterns
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Not a uniform change over the world
Depends on the stability of the Gulf Stream
Ireland on the same line of latitude as Quebec
In general Britain and Ireland come off pretty well but
Irish Environment Protection Agency predicts that within 15 years Ireland
will suffer from summer droughts and winter floods
• Worldwide water becomes the limiting factor
• Rising sea levels from melting ice caps and warming seas
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Security of Supply
• Food Security
– Reducing Ability to produce
– Increasing demands on our land mass
– Public understanding of key issues
• Farming’s Carbon Footprint
– Implementation of new technologies classed as “intensification”
• Waste disposal v. use
– Retailer approach to the use of processed manures
• Energy security
– Peak oil production
– Increasing demand
– High dependence on gas from the east
• Continued risk of interruption of supply
• UK at the end of the gas pipeline
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Tar Sands
• They currently represent around 2/3rds of total oil
reserves found principally in
– Canada: Athabasca Tar Sands 1.7 x 10¹² bbl
– Venezuelan Ormoco Tar Sands 1.8 x 10¹² bbl
• Conventional oil reserves 1.75 x 10¹² bbl
• Environmental Extraction Cost
– Canada they cover 140,000 Kms²
– High water useage to extract
– High energy cost to extract
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Oil Supplies: Past & Future
• Total oil used since 1850
• Total world reserves
remaining
• %oil currently available found
before 1973
• Time left at current world
usage of 29 bbls per annum
• Time left for US if it only uses
oil in its own oil fields
• Time left for US it it takes all of
Iraq’s oil as well
• Time left of whole world were
to use oil at the same rate as
USA
• % world oil used by non-USians
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1,000 billion barrels
1,000 billion barrels
70%
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33 years
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3 years
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15 years
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6 years
75% and growing
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What is Biomass?
• Corruption of the two words “Biological” and
“Mass”
• Includes both animal and plant materials
• Can be solid, liquid or gaseous
• Technically liquid biofuels are part of biomass
• Biomass is used more closely as solid biofuels
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What are the different types of biomass?
• Virgin:
– Energy crops
– Crop co products
• Straw
• Meal co products
– Forestry material
• Thinnings
• Tops and branches
• Roots
• Aboricultural
arisings
• Reclaimed materials
• Dry Wastes
– Municipal
– Industrial
• Wet Wastes
– Sewage sludges
– Food waste
– Animal waste
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What are the Barriers to uptake:
• Ignorance of the potential
• Ignorance of the availability
• Ignorance of the transformation technologies
that are available
• Ignorance of the economic dynamics
• Ignorance of the potential carbon savings
• Ignorance by some of the experts
• IGNORANCE, IGNORANCE, and
• IGNORANCE
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Liquid Biofuels
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How best to promote?
– UK 20 p per litre excise rebate
– Road Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO) from 2008
• 5% target for 2010
– Motor Oil Tax Relief (MOTR)
• Failures of proposal
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Biodiesel
– Different qualities of palm oil and rape oil
– Need to blend
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Bioethanol
– Blending and distribution issues
– Hygroscopic
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Biobutanol
– Has been more costly to produce but
– Many advantages
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Ethanol Costs 2006
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Ethanol costs post 2010
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Biodiesel and Diesel costs 2006
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Biodiesel and Diesel Costs 2010
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Biofuel Yields
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Biomass as a heat source
• Underpinning economics
– Revenue positive
– Capital cost higher
• UK Capital Grant scheme
– Fixed for 5 years @ 40% additional cost for boiler
and kit
– Reviewed after 4 years
• Longer term recognition of the environmental value of
carbon saved from renewable heat
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Biomass & Electricity
• Current coal fired energy conversion efficiency 25% to 35%
• To be replaced by:
– Similar number of gas fired OR
– Larger number of CHP facilities based on biomass
• Need to overlay a map of
– Heat need
– Electricity need
– Biomass availability
• Ireland
– Expected demand growth of 2% to 3% p.a.
– Potential generation shortage by 2010
– 30% target for renewables by 2020
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Biomass Waste as an Energy Source
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Average American produces 1.8kgs of municipal solid waste/day
Of this 75% is biomass = 1.35kgs / day
For 1 million people this = 1,350 tonnes / day
Using the latest technologies
1 tonne of biomass waste produces approx. 330 litres bioethanol
1350 tonnes produce approx 445,000 litres/day or
163 million litres per year
This is enough to fuel the transport for
– 63,000 Americans
– 390,000 French
– 2,800,000 Chinese
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Major Sources of Methane
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Global Sources of Methane
Biomass burning
8%
Fossil fuels
17%
Waste practices
10%
Wetlands
30%
Termite activity
5%
Oceans
Rice cultivation
10%
2%
Agricultural livestock
Other biogenic
14%
4%
• 598 Mt CH4 emitted to atmosphere each year
• 576 Mt CH4 absorbed by sinks
• A reduction in emissions of only 4% would lead to stabilised
atmospheric concentrations
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Benefits of Anaerobic digestion
• Larger percentage of CH4 recovered than from other methods
such as landfill (between 10% and 50% more)
• Gas yields are more regular and sustainable than land fill and
usually around 65% methane
• Much reduced time for the waste to fully degrade
– A few decades to a few weeks
– Using waste heat to raise the temperature of the digestor to
60ºC can reduce the digestion period from 60 to 20 days
• There is reduced potential contamination/ pollution from the run off
• Removal of noxious odours and much lower levels of pathogens
• Increased availability (and value) of the digestate as the available
Nitrogen is increased from <50% to c. 90%
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Anaerobic Digestion flow chart
Waste food
Heat to the
Anaerobic Digestor
Food processing
Bye products
65%
Methane
Biodegradable
Domestic refuse
Heat for
Buildings
Electricity
Generation
Anaerobic Digestors
Electricity Grid
Animal slurries
Human Sewage
Digestate
Fertiliser Application
For crop production
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/0
7f
World Wheat production, Consumption
& Year End Stocks
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
Production
Consumption
300.0
stocks
200.0
100.0
0.0
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% stocks of consumption
World Year End Wheat Stocks as
Percentage of Consumption
Stocks % of consumption
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
Stocks %
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
years
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Comparative values
wheat£ per tonne at 15%
moisture
burning oil v. feed wheat
£140.00
£120.00
£100.00
£80.00
£60.00
£40.00
£20.00
£0.00
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3
5
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9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
burning oil ppl
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Demand For Land
Effects of climate change
Water the limiting factor
Limitations on food production
THE LAND SQUEEZE
Increasing demands for crops
Renewable energy needs
Increasing population
Increasing wealth
China, India, Russia
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How do we derive maximum value and efficiency
from biomass?
• Find the process that extracts the maximum
percentage of the intrinsic value of the product
• With the minimum of
– capital investment
– Efficiency losses in the transformation
• While identifying the maximum market value
and
• Working together to ensure that a fair
distribution of the margin throughout the chain
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Remember think Laterally
• Crops as an energy source
– For transport fuels
– For electricity
– For heat
• Crops as a raw material for industry
STARCH
CROPS
Complex
Carbohydrates
STARCH
DERIVATIVES
Polylactic Acid
ALCOHOL
Bioethanol,
Biobutanol
Secondary
& Tertiary
Uses
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• A farmer buys a Mercedes of the new Eclass, from Three point motors. He is
annoyed about the price of the extras that
are not standard equipment.
• A while later the director of Three point
motors buys a cow from the same farmer
for his hobby farm
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The farmer issued the following invoice
:
Invoice:
1 cow (standard version)
baseprice
2 colours (Black/White)
extra
Leather upholstery
Milk reservoir for summer and winter use
4 Milk taps
@ $12.50 each
2 Bumpers, finished in Horn
@ $ 50 each
Fly swatter, semi automatic
Environmentally friendly exhaust catalyst
All terrain and weather boots
Brake system 2 circuits (Legs front and rear)
Multi tone horn
Eyes, HALOGEN
Multiple fuel use possibility
Total for cow as ordered
$ 2,400
$ 150
$ 400
$ 100
$
50
$ 100
$
50
$
60
$ 100
$ 400
$ 135
$ 150
$ 1,250
$ 5,345
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