Transcript Our Urban Future - Panteia

Europe of 2040
Bas ter Weel
CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
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Four CPB Publications
The Netherlands of 2040
Stad en Land
Four Futures of Finance
Europa in Crisis
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Times Are a-Changin’
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Times Are a-Changin’
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New CPB Scenario Study
Question
How will we earn our daily bread in 2040?
Approach
Scenarios to deal with uncertainty
Answer
Smart people
Strong cities
Policy
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Specialisation of Work …
Brainstorm
Retail
Retail
Blueprint
Prototype
Chips
Production
Packaging
Retail
Retail
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Smart People
Specialisation
Communication technology …
… leads to unbundling of tasks …
… global knowledge exchange …
… and production by specialist workers
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... or Generalisation of Work
Write your own emails
Insurance agents
Design programmes
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Smart People
Specialisation
Communication technology …
… leads to unbundling of tasks …
… global knowledge exchange …
… and production by specialist workers
Generalisation
Information technology …
… bundles tasks …
… performed by autonomous workers
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Cities Are the Place to Be
Stockholm
Retail
Retail
Barcelona
Tokyo
Dallas
Production
Packaging
Retail
Retail
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Concentration of Economic Activity …
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Strong Cities
Concentration
Economies of scale …
… with face-to-face interactions …
… to develop new technologies
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… or Scattering of Economic Activity
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Strong Cities
Concentration
Economies of scale …
… with face-to-face interactions …
… to develop new technologies
Scattering
Networks of small cities …
… with excellent connections …
… facilitated by ICT
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Two Uncertainties
Scattering
Specialisation
Generalisation
Concentration
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Four Scenarios
Scattering
Talent
Towns
Egalitarian
Ecologies
Specialisation
Generalisation
Cosmopolitan
Centres
Metropolita
n Markets
Concentration
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Talent Towns
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Metropolitan Markets
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Other Scenarios
Talent
Towns
Cosmopolitan Centres
Large cities
Specialised workers
Egalitarian Ecologies
Small cities
Generalised workers
Metropolitan
Markets
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The Magic Circle of Policymaking
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The Magic Circle of Policy Making
Scattering
Talent
Towns
Egalitarian
Ecologies
Specialisation
Generalisation
Cosmopolitan
Centres
Metropolita
n
Markets
Concentration
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Connections Build Strong Cities
Talent
Towns
Egalitarian
Ecologies
Global links
National orientation
Face-to-face interactions
Stable relations
Knowledge
Variety
Attract workers and ideas
Access to knowledge
Cosmopolitan
Centres
Metropolitan
Markets
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Smart People Innovate More
Talent
Towns
Egalitarian
Ecologies
Excellence
Accessibility
Creation
Utilisation
Public-private cooperation
Innovation credits
Targeted policies
Generic policies
Cosmopolitan
Centres
Metropolitan
Markets
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Be Committed, Be Flexible
Talent
Towns
Egalitarian
Ecologies
Vulnerable
Stable
Inequality
Equality
Retraining
Job mobility
Flexible conditions
Committed at distance
Cosmopolitan
Centres
Metropolitan
Markets
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Wrapping Up
Smart people earn our income
Strong cities glue smart people together
Be committed, be flexible
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