Transcript Biocomplexity and the sustainability of the Bristol Bay

Biocomplexity and fisheries
sustainability
Ray Hilborn
Tom Quinn
Daniel Schindler
School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences
University of Washington
What is biocomplexity
• Biodiversity is the diversity of life forms
including species diversity, and diversity of
stocks, life histories and morphologies
within a species
• Biocomplexity is the “complex chemical,
biological and social interactions in our
planet’s systems” (Colwell 98)
The Earth is a living, ever-changing planet. Its environment is
defined by the interaction of many complex systems that are
structured or influenced by living organisms, their components
or biological processes. These systems are the source of our
sustenance, well being and quality of life. Biocomplexity is
the defining property of these systems, resulting in the `whole
being greater than the sum of its parts'. The area of
biocomplexity that will come to the forefront in coming years
is that of interactions of living organisms with all facets of
their external environment. In particular, research on
interactions involving multiple levels of biological
organization and/or multiple spatial (microns to thousands of
kilometres) and temporal (nanoseconds to aeons) scales will
be of great importance.
(Colwell 2000)
Fisheries Sustainability: The Litany
• “Most of the world's major fisheries are depleted or rapidly
deteriorating. Wherever they operate, commercial fishing
fleets are exceeding the oceans' ecological limits.”
Greenpeace
What is wrong with the litany?
• Most of the worlds fisheries are not
collapsed and produce substantial yield
• In the US we are obtaining 85% of the
maximum possible yield
• The authors of the Litany argue fisheries
management has failed and we need to look
for new solutions
We have the solutions in hand
• There are many successful fisheries
• We need to look to the successful examples
and learn from them, not look for “new”
solutions
Bristol Bay sockeye stand out as
a success story in sustainable
biological management
50
Catch in millions of fish
40
30
20
10
0
93 00 07 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98
18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
• A single management
agency with clear
biological objectives
• Good ocean conditions
from 1977-1996
A key to this sustainability is
management by escapement goal
In escapement goal management the
fishery is regulated to assure that a
target number of fish “escape” the
fishery and reach the spawning
grounds, assuring the long term
productivity of the stock
Ugashik
10,000
9,000
8,000
Catch and Escapement
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
Calendar Year
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
Biocomplexity of the stocks is
also a key
• Diversity in life history
– Spawning on beaches, in creeks, in rivers
– Diversity of freshwater life 0, 1 and 2 years
– Diversity of marine life, 1, 2, 3 and 4 years
• Diversity in morphology
Hansen Creek sockeye salmon
Male
Female
Bear Creek sockeye salmon
Beach spawning sockeye salmon
Diversity of Habitats and
Geography
• Many different lake systems
– different physical regimes
• Different times of smolt and adult migration
• Long term changes associated with Pacific
Decadal Oscillation
Large rivers
between lakes
have stable flows,
no bear
predation
Often high
density spawning
Small streams often have very
high density spawning: also
high bear predation
Beach spawning occurs where
here is upwelling or wind
driven currents
Importance of climate
• The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase
Cool Phase
http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/pdo/
http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/pdo/
Historical sockeye population dynamics
Lake Nerka, SW Alaska
Salmon density
(1000s/km2)
12
+ fishery catch
8
4
escapement
0
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Year
Schindler and Leavitt (2001)
45,000,000
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
Naknek-Kvichak
Nushagak
Different systems have
been important at
different times
Egegik
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
1893 1905 1917 1929 1941 1953 1965 1977 1989
Recruits per spawner
Kvichak
Nak/Br
Egegik
10
10
10
8
6
8
6
8
6
4
2
4
2
4
2
0
1955
0
1955
0
1955
1965
1975
1985
1965
Ugashik
1975
1985
Wood
10
8
10
8
6
4
6
4
6
4
2
0
1955
2
0
1955
2
0
1955
1975
1985
1965
Nush
10
8
6
4
6
4
2
0
1955
2
0
1955
1975
1985
Togiak
10
8
1965
1975
1985
1965
1975
1975
1985
Igushik
10
8
1965
1965
1985
1965
1975
1985
Changing perceptions
• In the 1940s 50s or 60s no one would have
ever expected Egegik to be the most
important system in Bristol Bay
• In the 1970s no one would have expected
the Nushagak to be the most important
system in the bay
• Many had never heard of the Alagnak!
• Not on many maps
Alagnak River
Alagnak
Alagnak river escapements
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Spatial scale hypotheses
• The role of biocomplexity and response to
climate extends to all spatial scales
– We know it occurs on Pacific wide scales
• Documented negative correlation between lower 48
and Alaskan salmon productivity
– We see it at smaller scales
• At different spawning sites in a stream
• Even within sections of a stream
16000
Nerka Kema Creek
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1950
1960
30000
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Aleknagik Happy Creek
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
The human side of the story
• For all of the excitement over the biological
success, the social and economic success
has faded
• It was once possible to clear $50,000 in a 6
week season
The human biocomplexity
• The fishing fleet and processing industry is
as diverse as the fish
• Diversity of fishing gears
• Diversity of strategies – mobile, stationary,
resident non resident, high capital input,
low capital input
The fishery
• 2000 drift gillnet boats and 1000 shore
based “set net” gill nets
• Fishery from 25 June to 15 July
• Product is both canned and frozen
• Canned market UK and Europe, Frozen
Japan
Photo Robert Kope
Photo Robert Kope
Photo Robert Kope
The race for fish
• Is widely recognized as the primary
economic problem in worlds fisheries
• In the 1930’s 30 million salmon were
caught in Bristol Bay by 2000 sail powered
boats
• We don’t need 2000 high powered vessels
• State policy is to spread the wealth to as
many as possible
The Management System
The management system
The biocomplexity of Bristol Bay
Price and Revenue
The fleet
The managers
Climate
The fish
The potential adaptation of the
human system is restricted by
regulation
• Regulations determine how many and what type
of fishing takes place
• There is very limited ability to adapt
• We expect that “the struggle for existence” will by
default take place within existing regulations
• We are modelling alternatives to the current
regulatory structure including cooperative fishing
programs as seen at Chignik
General Lessons
• Biocomplexity appears to be important in
stabilizing total productivity over a range of
spatial scales in both fish and human systems
• Systems that are productive in one epoch are much
less productive in other epochs
– The lesson is maintain the stock structure
– what seems unimportant now may be very important
later
• The regulatory structure imposed threatens the
ability of the human system to adapt
Some other examples
• Ecosystems change
• The productivity of different species
changes
The “worst” fisheries disaster of the last 20 years
Collapse of the Northern Cod fishery in
Newfoundland
Catch in thousands of tons
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1850
1900
1950
200052
Value of fish products landed in Newfoundland
400
350
300
250
200
150
Shellfish
100
Groundfish
50
0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
Landed value in New England
$800,000,000
$700,000,000
$600,000,000
$500,000,000
$400,000,000
$300,000,000
$200,000,000
$100,000,000
$0
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
Gulf of Alaska – Small set
of structuring variables
operating at different
speeds - Whammo!
Conclusions
“If the biota, in the course of aeons, has built
something we like but do not understand, then
who but a fool would discard seemingly useless
parts? To keep every cog and wheel is the first
precaution of intelligent tinkering.”
Aldo Leopold Round River
Final Lessons
• Maintain flexible social institutions: fishing
communities need to adapt
• This issue has not been on the legislative
agenda
• The fisheries crisis is one of governance
• We know what to do: solutions are
available
Acknowledgements
• The FRI pioneers who started and
maintained 57 years of continuous data
– Bud Burgner, Ole Matiesen, Don Rogers
• The staff of Alaska Department of Fish and
Game who continue much of the original
work and maintain many of the data bases:
Lowell Fair, Jeff Regnart, Jim Browning,
Brian Bue