Transcript Mardlers Oct 2000 - All-Party Parliamentary Group on

APPG-Agscience Jan 28th 2009
The need to recreate a public sector
crop germplasm improvement program
Plant Science research policy needs to
be joined up between Gov Depts
Jonathan Jones www.tsl.ac.uk/jj
PhD Plant Breeding Institute (PBI) 1980
PostDoc Harvard 1981-2
Scientist at Agbiotech company AGS Berkeley,
CA 1983-8
(>25 years of GM plants)
Sainsbury Lab since 1988
Cofounded www.mendelbio.com 1997
Cofounded Norfolk Plant Sciences 2008 (purple
tomatoes and disease resistance)
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/jonathan_dg_jones/
Bold assertions
• Food price rises not “just a blip”; main driver is increased
demand for meat from world middle class
• Agriculture has a huge environmental impact; how can we
minimize it? Yield is good
• Genetics constrains crop performance; crop genotypes can
be improved
• Leaving it to market is not enough; margins in seeds biz too
low for big private investment in non-hybrids eg wheat
• New genomics methods create new opportunities, but
investment not made if returns too low
• We need public sector germplasm improvement programs
for wheat, rapeseed, and maybe others
• The PBI was the envy of the world, placing top basic science
adjacent to top plant breeders
• Scientist/breeder synergy a major opportunity
• Privatisation of PBI in 1987 a mistake; the “pipeline” was
narrowed; how best to reverse this mistake?
Plant Science research policy needs to
be joined up
-Public investment needs to be long term
-Research capacity cannot be switched on and off
like a tap in response to changes in political fashion
-Crop Science review; solution is not one-off funding
-Public sector involvement critical to public
acceptance of new technology for food production
-DFID/BBSRC/DEFRA need to work and fund
together
-Devolution unhelpful- excellent SCRI scientists
ineligible for BBSRC funding
-Rethink of food production, sustainable land use,
private/public balance, justifies a Foresight exercise
Plant Science research policy
needs to be joined up
Treasury push for economic impact of UK science but…
-Main output for plant science is crop varieties with
improved performance
-Performance means more yield with less water, nitrogen,
fungicides, pesticides…….
-“Models to crops” problematic (“unhelpful linear model
for KT- CFG 4.3)
-Public sector plant breeding and training has collapsed
-Private sector has focused on most profitable crops eg
maize, soy, cotton
-Wheat becoming an “orphan crop”; profits limited by
farm-saved seed, low incentive for private investment
despite public good; market failure
Plant Science research policy
needs to be joined up
Treasury seeks economic impact of excellent UK plant science
but………….
-Technically, easiest route for public sector science is via GM
-GM is safe, effective, fast
-Complete GM buy-in from plant science community; no
“whistleblowers” with scientific credibility
-Tainted perception of GM creates big opportunity costs;
projects not started, young talent not recruited
-Lack of public sector GM delivery exacerbates public fears
-Public sector can’t afford the absurd regulatory costs;
private sector domination becomes self-fulfilling prophecy
-Government needs to support GM route to market for public
sector discoveries
-Could we declare GM independence from Brussels?
(NB I’m not a UKIP member!)
Plant Science research policy
needs to be joined up
Wheat is a good example of the problem
-Farm gate value of wheat in UK ~£1.5B
-10% yield increase would be worth £150M/yr
-Seed sales to farmers ~£60M; royalties £14M
-If you get 25% market share, £3.5m/year royalty
-Why would a company spend £20M to increase
yield 10% if they can’t get their money back?
(NB Monsanto spends >$600m)
Market failure
-Wheat is in real danger of becoming an “orphan
crop”
What would public wheat breeding do
that private would not?
-Active use of genetic resources; opening genetic bottleneck
by repeatedly re-synthesizing wheat
-international collaboration (good for the developing world)
-Introgression of diversity into elite genetic backgrounds
-Hybrid wheat
-Enhanced discovery/deployment of genomics for breeding
-Genetic mapping and cloning of genes for valuable QTLs; helps
private sector breeders
-Judicious testing of GM traits for water, N use efficiency,
disease resistance etc
- Public sector advocacy should enhance GM acceptability
-GM likely best solution to take-all disease
-Training the next generation of plant breeders
-If C4 rice works, incorporate into wheat
Which agencies should support public sector
crop breeding?
-BBSRC? Breeding not research, but good
experience, programs at JIC, RR, IBERS and NIAB
-DEFRA? DEFRA does not act like it has a crop
yield enhancement mission
-TSB? Uncomfortable in ag; unfortunately looks to
DEFRA for guidance
-Dept Energy? Biomass crops need better yield
from all crops; should be on their agenda
-DFID? Improved germplasm essential for
improved yields; training breeders of great value
-They have to work together!
-NB- US Interagency working group on plant
genomics
The US National Plant
Genome Initiative
NPGI Goals
• To understand the structure and function of
all plant genes at levels from the molecular to
the organismal levels and on to interactions
within ecosystems
• The focus is on plants
of economic importance
and plant processes of
potential economic value
NPGI Participants
•
•
•
•
•
National Science Foundation (NSF)
US Department of Agriculture (USDA)
US Department of Energy (DOE)
National Institutes of Health (NIH)
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA)
• US Agency for International
Development (USAID)
Problem and a possible solution
-AFRC lost its commitment to ag science when
merged with SERC to make BBSRC in 1990s
-BBSRC can tap into good expertise and has a
credible and effective peer review mechanism
-DEFRA has the right mission, but lacks science
competence to judge/lead germplasm improvement
-DEFRA only seems to fund research to support
policy development, not problem solving
-DFID set DEFRA a good example, using BBSRC peer
review to judge proposals congruent with its mission
-DEFRA should do the same, or transfer research
funds to BBSRC
The view from the US private sector
-Monsanto projects a doubling of maize
and soy yields by 2030
-50% due to enhanced breeding, 50%
from biotech traits
-This year “triple stack” maize the
biggest seller (RR, earworm, rootworm)
-2010 “Smartstack” (8 transgene) maize
-By 2015 > 20 transgenes for insect
resistance, N use efficiency, drought
tolerance etc
-Europe is being left in the dust!
The Combination of Biotechnology and Breeding
Can Maximize Yield Gains
ADVANCES ASSISTING IN PROTECTING AND BOOSTING YIELDS
Average Corn Yield
(in bushels per acre)
300
Grain Yield
Potential
in
Sizable Gains
Will2030
Be Realized
From MarkerAverage
U.S.
Assisted
CornBreeding
Yield in
2007 was 151
Bushels Per Acre
250
200
150
100
50
0
1970
1990
2010
2030
Historical Yield Data
30-Year Trend, Based on Historical Yield Data
Molecular Breeding Benefit
Biotechnology Yield Benefit
INNOVATIONS IN AG TECHNOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE VALUE CHAIN CONTRIBUTE TO YIELD GAIN
The Combination of Breeding, Agronomic Practice
Improvements and Biotech Can Maximize Yield
Gains
CORN YIELD POTENTIAL TO 2030 IN THE UNITED STATES
320
300
BUSHELS PER ACRE
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
Historical Breeding & Agronomic Trend
Agronomic
Breeding
Biotech
USDA Yield
Positive Effects of Stress Mitigation Are
Compounded by the Stacking of Biotech Traits
•Rain Shelter Trial Corn Plot at A Monsanto Research Site
Gallons of Ethanol
Gallons of Ethanol
Gallons of Ethanol
Gallons of Ethanol
254
307
405
535
Pounds of Feed
Pounds of Feed
Pounds of Feed
Pounds of Feed
1,504
1,819
2,400
3,170
HT
Yield = 94 bu/ac
Roundup
Ready®
Corn 2
CB Protection
+HT
Yield = 113.7 bu/ac
YieldGard® Corn Borer
with Roundup Ready
Corn 2
Soil-applied RW
Protection
+CB Protection
+HT
Yield = 150 bu/ac
YieldGard Corn Borer with
Roundup Ready Corn 2
+ Force® insecticide
RW Protection
+CB Protection
+HT
Yield = 198.1 bu/ac
YieldGard Plus with
Roundup Ready
Corn 2
Produce More, Conserve More:
Pesticide, Nitrogen, Rainfall Use Declining In Corn
3.5
1
160
0.925
150
3
0.8
140
20
2.5
0.7
130
0.62
15
120
0.5
1.5
110
0.4
10
1
100
0.3
0.2
90
0.5
5
0.180
0
0
0
U.S.
Corn
Insecticide
Application
Efficiency
U.S.
U.S.
Corn
Corn
Corn
Rainfall
Herbicide
Nitrogen
Use Efficiency
Application
in the
&&Efficiency
Midwest
Year
Running
(3(3
(3IL,
Year
Year
Runnnning
Running
Averages)
Averages)
IN,
IA, MN,Averages)
OH,
WI
(3 Year Running Averages)
Herbicide Application Rate
Average Rainfall (Apr - Aug)
Nitrogen Application Rate
Insecticide Application Rate
of Nitrogen
per Bushel
PoundsPounds
of Insecticide
per
Bushel
Inch
ofPounds
Rainfall
per
Bu/Ac
of
Herbicide
per Bushel
0.03
0.009
1.2
1
0.008
0.9
1.1
0.007
0.8
0.7
0.006
ofofRainfall
InchPounds
bushel
perBu/Ac
of Nper
Bushel
per
Pounds
Bushel
per
Herbicide
ofInsecticide
Pounds
lb/ac
Rate,lb/ac
Insecticide
Applicate Rate,
(a.i.)Application
Herbicide(a.i.)
lb/ac
N Application
Rainfall (AprRate,
in
Average
- Aug),
RAINFALL
USE
NITROGENPESTICIDE
USEEFFICIENCY
EFFICIENCY
IN
CORN
DECLINING
USE RATESIN
IN CORN
U.S.
CORN
0.6
1
0.02
0.005
0.5
0.004
0.4
0.9
0.003
0.3
0.2
0.002
0.8
0.1
0.01
0.001
0
NOTE: ONE POUND OF NITROGEN = 24,500 BTUS
Data Source: USDA, NASS “Agricultural Chemical Usage Report”; dmrkynetec; NOAA
Yield Gains With Plant Population Increases
170
Conventional
160
2004
1982-1995
Yield (bu/a)
150
1994
140
1998
1992
1996
130
1986 1990 1987
120
2000
1999
2003
1997
Biotech Era
1985
110
1995
1984
2001
2007
2002
1989
1982
2005 2006
1996-2007
1991
100
1993
90
1988
80
1983
70
21000
22000
23000
24000
25000
26000
27000
28000
PLANT POPULATION
PopulationFARM
(stalks/a)PROGRESS
DEMONSTRATION
29000
Plant Science research policy needs to
be joined up
-Thinking in DEFRA, BBSRC, DFID, Energy, TSB
needs to be coordinated
-Major investment needed in public sector
breeding & training next generation of breeders
-Private sector (Monsanto, DuPont) have genes
for drought tolerance, N use efficiency etc;
We should make private/public GM partnerships
to test their (or our) transgenes in our varieties
in our environments
-Directive 91/414 increases urgency of
elevating disease and pest resistance in crops
Exsept v Riband Septoria resistance
Colossal gains are being made in the US private sector for
profitable crops such as maize
Wheat in Europe could and should share in those gains; lack
of market incentive mandates PUBLIC investment
We need long term funding for public sector plant breeding;
needs to be led by a leading breeder, almost certainly
recruited from private sector (discussions in progress)
S/he needs sufficient budget to be independent
The program should take advantage of JIC/RR/
NIAB/SCRI/IBERS resources of land, science etc
Current JIC/NIAB/RR etc discussions will lead to a
proposal via BBSRC from RCUK for CSR-09 as part
of food security; you should support it !
Thanks- questions?
(The results of plant breedingIs this natural ?! )