Transcript Document

Mexico City, July 13, 2012
Richard H. Jones, Deputy Executive Director
Dr. Markus Wråke, ETP Project Leader,
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
2DS
a vision of a sustainable
energy system of reduced
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
4DS
reflecting pledges by
countries to cut
emissions and boost
energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
6DS
where the world is now
heading with potentially
devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012
Sustainable future still in reach
Is a clean energy
transition urgent?
Are we on track to
reach a clean
energy future?
Can we get on
track?
YES ✓
NO ✗
YES ✓
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Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
Cleaner coal power
Nuclear power
Renewable power
CCS in power
CCS in industry
Industry
Buildings
Progress is too slow in
almost all technology areas
Significant action is required
to get back on track
Fuel economy
Electric vehicles
Biofuels for transport
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables provide good news
Renewable power generation
42%
75%
27%
Average annual
growth in Solar PV
Cost reductions in
Solar PV in just
three years in
some countries
Average annual
growth in wind
Non-hydro sources spread out widely
60
40
20
Onshore
wind
Offshore
wind
Bioenergy
Solar PV
CSP
Geothermal
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
0
2005
Number of countries (>100MW)
80
Ocean
IEA MRMR 2012
Growth is expected to shift beyond traditional support markets (OECD) to all regions
Number of countries with installations >100MW increases significantly
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A smart, sustainable energy system
Co-generation
Renewable energy resources
Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
Distributed
energy resources
Smart energy
system control
H2 vehicle
Surplus heat
EV
A sustainable energy system is a smarter,
more unified and integrated energy system
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Recommendations to Governments
1. Create an investment climate of confidence
in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy
efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research,
development and demonstration (RD&D)
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Low-carbon electricity: a clean core
45 000
Other
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass and waste
Oil
Gas with CCS
Gas
Coal with CCS
Coal
40 000
35 000
TWh
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
Renewables will generate more than
half the world’s electricity in the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural Gas
gas is not a panacea
Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’. CCS must
play a role if gas use should continue to grow.
© OECD/IEA 2012
The CCS infant must grow quickly
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electric vehicles need to come of age
Passenger LDV sales (million)
200
FCEV
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
Electricity
150
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
100
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
50
Diesel
0
2000
Gasoline
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be
propelled by an electric motor in 2050
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Translating targets into action
8
million sales/year
7
Manufacturers
production/sales
6
5
Projection
(Estimated from
each country's
target)
Projection
(Estimated from
each country's
target)
4
3
2
1
0
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2018
2020
2020
Government targets need to be backed by policy action
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Building sector challenges differ
Billion households
,2.5
,2.0
,1.5
,1.0
,0.5
,0.0
2010
OECD
2020
2030
2040
2050
Non OECD
75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
Heating & Cooling: huge potential
Renewable heat
Integration with electricity
District heating and
cooling network
Co-generation
Surplus heat
Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.
Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy investment pays off
USD trillion
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy
can generate 3 dollars in return.
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Mexican CO2 emissions need to be halved by 2050
800
MtCO 2
700
6DS
600
Agriculture, other 1%
500
Other transformation 7%
Power 37%
400
Industry 17%
300
Transport 23%
200
Buildings 16%
100
0
2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
The power sector provides almost 40% of the cumulative CO2
reductions compared to the 4DS
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A portfolio of technologies are needed in power
Additional emissions in
6DS
Fuel switching and
efficiency improvemnets
Electricity savings
300
Mt CO 2
250
200
Other renewables
Wind
150
Solar
100
Biomass
Nuclear
50
CCS
0
2009
2030
2050
2DS emissions
Electricity savings, solar and wind power
as key mitigation options in Mexico
© OECD/IEA 2012
Greening the Mexican vehicle fleet
Most of the greening of the Mexican vehicle fleet
is achieved by drop-in biofuels
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End-use energy efficiency is critical
In the Mexican buildings sector, more than half of the reductions
will come from decarbonisation of the power sector.
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A low-carbon future for Mexico




Low-carbon development has already been made a
priority
First successes have been achieved, more ambitious
actions will be necessary to meet the 2DS
New Climate Law represents an excellent basis for
action – need to maintain momentum!
Mexico is well placed for a “green” development
strategy and ambitious climate goals
© OECD/IEA 2012
For much more, please visit
www.iea.org/etp
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Assumptions- GDP and population
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Assumptions- fossil fuel prices
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Carbon prices (model result)
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Visualising ETP Data – reductions
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Visualising ETP Data – energy flows
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Visualising ETP Data – fuel flows
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