Transcript Moneyball - StatsMonkey.

The Moneyball Effect: Teaching
AP Statistics through Sports
Paul Buckley
Gonzaga College High School
Washington, DC
[email protected]
1
Why?

Growth of Statistics
2
Why use Sports?
3
So how can Sports help us learn
AP Statistics?
4
Statistical Inference Through Sports
Miguel Cabrera vs Austin Jackson
Who is really responsible for Detroit’s success?
5
Two-Proportion Z Test
pMC = proportion of hits for Miguel Cabrera for the entire season
pAJ = proportion of hits for Austin Jackson for the entire season
H 0 : pMC - pAJ = 0
H A : pMC - pAJ > 0
6
The Data
pˆ MC = proportion of hits for
pˆ AJ = proportion of hits for
Miguel Cabrera in a random
Austin Jackson in a random
sample of 18 at-bats
sample of 11 at-bats
pˆ MC =
8
17
pˆ AJ =
0
11
7
Simulate the Games
StatKey
Fathom
8
Simulation results
Likelihood = p-value
9
10
Experimental Design Through Sports
Which is the better putter?
11
The Experiment
Control – putter, ball, ‘course’, swing
 Randomization – prevent ‘hot hand’
 Easier to identify the response variable
and what would affect it
 Replication
 Blinding
 Blocking

12
c
Experimental Design Through Sports
2
Which is the better putter?
13
Regression Through Sports
Moneyball scene:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGf6LNWY
9AI
14
Regression Through Sports
Offense vs Defense
Which is the better predictor of wins?
15
r  0.7993
r  0.7296
s =1.884
s = 2.144
16
Think of the possibilities…
Soccer: Free Kicks vs Goals
 Hockey: Power Plays vs Goals
 Golf, which is a better predictor of
success, greens in regulation or number of
putts?
 Tennis: unforced errors or 1st serve
percentage vs points won

17
What else?
Putting together a relay team (track,
swimming) – lesson in z-scores, normal
distributions
 Game strategies – situational hitting –
conditional probabilities
 Layups vs jumpers vs 3-pointers – nonlinear regression
 And ……?

18
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