Transcript POC, POD, POS - Minnesota Wing Civil Air Patrol

POC, POD, POS
Minnesota Wing
Air Branch Director Course
A question…
• Do you want to put all your resources where
subject is most likely to be?
or
• Do you want to put all your resources where
you are most likely to find the subject if they
are there?
• The Answer is Both. You must balance the
two to achieve the most effective search.
POC, POD, POS
• Probability of Containment
• Probability of Detection
• Probability of Success
Theoretical Search Area
• The worst case, maximum possible area within
which the subject might be found.
No wind endurance
Flight level winds: 330/20
Aircraft Speed:
100 Kts
LKP
Wind vector
Endurance:
200 NM
2 Hours
Corrected for wind
Maximum possibility area
POC
• Probably of Containment Defined:
– The probability that the search object is contained
within the boundaries of an area, sub-area, or grid
cell.
• Also known as Probability of Area (POA). It is
the likelihood the missing person or aircraft is
within any given portion of the search area.
POC
• POC for the entire theoretical search area
should be 100%. If not, expand your search
area.
• Each segment will have percentage of that
POC based on clues, search manager
experience, and other factors of the case.
• POC can help us figure out where the subject
is most likely to be.
POD
• Probability of Detection
• Definition:
– The probability of the search object being
detected, assuming it was in the areas that were
searched. POD is a function of coverage factor,
sensor, search conditions and the accuracy with
which the search facility navigates its assigned
search pattern. Measures sensor effectiveness
under the prevailing search conditions.
POD
• POD is not useful for searchers, but is very
useful for search planners.
• The only time you have 100% POD is if you
actually find the target.
• For Aircrews, use chart on back of 104 to
calculate POD.
POD
• To figure out POD, we first need:
– Sweep Width: a measure of the average ability
of a given sensor to detect a specific search
object under a specific set of environmental
conditions.
POD
• Next we figure out coverage:
– A measure of search quality or effectiveness. It
relates searcher capability (sweep width) with
searcher employment (track spacing) to
determine how well the search area has been
covered.
POD
POD
• We have charts on the back of the CAPF 104
to help us figure out POD:
POD
• POD can also be used in reverse during
planning to figure out how likely we will be in
detecting an object if we searched that area.
• We can figure out how to maximize our POD
to ensure that we find.
POD vs. POC
• POC: the likelihood you are searching in right
place.
• POD: the likelihood you will detect the person
if you are in the right place.
• Your goal is to search an area that is large
enough to likely contain the object, but small
enough that your searchers will be spaced
closely enough to detect the object.
POS
• Probability of Success:
– Defined: The probability of finding the search
object with a particular search. For each sub-area
searched, POS = POC x POD. Measures search
effectiveness.
• Used before a each search to help determine
where to search and after a search to
determine the overall Cumulative POS for the
mission. (POSCum)
Questions?