Transcript Document

Simulation of European emissions
impacts on particulate matter
concentrations in 2010
using Models-3
Rob Lennard, Steve Griffiths and Paul Sutton (RWE npower)
Power Technology, Environmental Compliance Group
Overview of presentation
• Background to study
• Air quality legislation covering particulate matter (PM) and issues for
electricity generation sector
• Models-3 and treatment of PM
• Overview of modelled scenario
• Results - compliance with guidelines
sector by sector impacts
primary versus secondary particulate impacts
implications of a population exposure approach
© 2005 E.ON
16 July 2015, E.ON UK, Page 2
Background to study
 Power Technology work on behalf of UK power generator’s Joint
Environmental Programme (the JEP)
 Eight companies – cover majority of the UK coal and oil-fired
generation
 Investigate environmental issues of relevance to the power industry
 Air quality, acid deposition, particulate matter formation
 Selected Models-3 in 1999 to address regional scale issues
© 2005 E.ON
16 July 2015, E.ON UK, Page 3
Particulate matter (PM) and human health impacts
• Mounting evidence for association between exposure to PM and
adverse health impacts
• Fine particulates (PM2.5) believed to be primarily responsible
• Lack of evidence for a threshold for harmful effects
• Based on current understanding, World Health Organisation (WHO) has
updated its air quality guidelines (AQG) (October 2006)
• For the first time, WHO has recommended guidelines for PM2.5
• Updated guidelines for PM have been proposed for Europe and the UK
© 2005 E.ON
16 July 2015, E.ON UK, Page 4
Updates to PM guidelines
• WHO Air Quality Guidelines Global Update
PM2.5 10 µgm-3 annual mean and 25 µgm-3 24-hour mean
• New EU air quality Directive (current understanding - currently being debated)
PM10 30 µgm-3 annual mean
PM2.5 25 µgm-3 annual mean (binding from 2010)
PM2.5 Up to 20% reduction in urban background annual mean
• UK Air Quality Strategy – updates proposed by Defra:
PM10 Retain standards???
PM2.5 25 µgm-3 annual mean for PM2.5
PM2.5 15% exposure reduction target for annual mean PM2.5
© 2005 E.ON
16 July 2015, E.ON UK, Page 5
Important issues for the JEP
 Power stations contribute to PM concentrations:
 ~9% of UK primary emissions (EMEP Webdab)
• Secondary - emissions of precursor gases SO2 (70%) and NOx (20%)
 Uncertainty regarding fraction responsible for adverse health
effects
• Toxicology studies suggest primary combustion particles have
high toxic potency
• Other components are thought to have a lower toxic potency
e.g. ammonium salts, chlorides, sulphates, nitrates
 Need to understand the effect of our emissions on primary and
secondary PM2.5 concentrations
© 2005 E.ON
16 July 2015, E.ON UK, Page 6
Models-3/CMAQ
 3-D gridded Eulerian model
 Set up to run on three nested grids
(54, 18, and 6km resolution)
 21 vertical layers (15km)
 Requires hourly gridded emissions and
meteorology
 Plus land-use, initial conditions,
boundary conditions
 Chemical Scheme:
RADM2+aerosols+aqueous chemistry
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16 July 2015, E.ON UK, Page 7
Modelling Particulate in Models-3
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Based on USEPA particulate model / Regional Acid Deposition Model
Time-dependent size distribution & size specific chemical composition
Modal approach – Coarse, accumulation & nucleation
Described by particle number concentration, total surface area & total mass
Species
 Sulphate, Nitrate, Ammonium
 Elemental Carbon
 Primary organic species
 Anthropogenic secondary organic species
 Biogenic secondary species
 Unspecified anthropogenic species
 Can also include aerosol water
© 2005 E.ON
16 July 2015, E.ON UK, Page 8
Modelling study
• Compared contributions of 7 sectors to ground-level PM concentrations
• Model run for an entire year, month-by-month basis, 1999 met data
• Anthropogenic emissions scenario for the year 2010
– data from EMEP WebDab Expert Emissions Database (emep.webdab.int)
• Emissions data were available for all major pollutants
(SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, NH3 and NMVOC).
• Temporal profiles applied using smoke.
- energy sector data provided by JEP companies
• Emissions from SNAP categories 1, 3 and 4 assigned to point sources
(based on assumptions from National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory)
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Sectors for which impacts have been assessed
• Ground-level PM concentrations due to 7 different sectors compared
• Eight model runs performed in total
Sectors:
• Agriculture
• Energy
• Industry – SNAP cats 3,4,5,6,9
• Natural
• Residential
• Shipping
• Transport – SNAP cats 7,8
© 2005 E.ON
Ground-level
concentration output:
• Total PM10
• Primary PM10
• Secondary
• Total PM2.5
• Primary PM2.5
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Emissions data by SNAP category
Sector
SNAP
Source
Combustion in energy production and transformation
1
EMEP
Non-industrial combustion (residential, commercial &
institutional)
2
EMEP
Combustion in industry
3
EMEP
Production Processes
4
EMEP
Extraction & distribution of fossil fuels
5
EMEP
Solvent use
6
EMEP
Road transport
7
EMEP
Other transport and mobile machinery
8
EMEP
Waste treatment & disposal
9
EMEP
Agriculture, forestry and land-use change
10
EMEP
Shipping
8
EMEP
Natural Sources
11
GEIA
Volcanoes
11
EMEP
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16 July 2015, E.ON UK, Page 11
Models-3 PM simulation validation
Comparison with measured data – 24 hour averages
25
25
20
Hodge Hill
Cliffe
Harw ell
15
London Bloomsbury
Rochester
Wingham
10
5
Measured concentration [PM2.5] ug/m3
Measured concentration [PM2.5] ug/m3
30
20
Hodge Hill
Cliffe
15
Harw ell
London Bloomsbury
Rochester
10
Wingham
5
0
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
Modelled concentration [PM2.5] ug/m3
January 1999
© 2005 E.ON
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
Modelled concentration [PM2.5] ug/m3
July 1999
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Results – comparison with standards
© 2005 E.ON
16 July 2015, E.ON UK, Page 13
Exceedances of 25μgm-3 annual mean for PM2.5
Area
Grid square
Eastern Sicily
(44,11)
Northern Italy
(34,25)
Agriculture
2.3
10.9
Energy
0.7
1.9
Industry
1.2
5.0
Natural
19.4
1.5
Residential
0.6
5.2
Transport
7.1
14.5
Shipping
1.3
1.0
All Sources
27.7
30.2
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16 July 2015, E.ON UK, Page 14
Exeedances of 12 μgm-3 annual mean for PM2.5
© 2005 E.ON
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All source primary and secondary PM2.5 concentrations
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Sector contributions to grid averages and maxima
Sector
Total PM2.5
Secondary PM2.5
(µgm-3)
Primary PM2.5
Average
Max
Average
Max
Average
Max
Agriculture
2.33
11.53
2.31
11.49
0.03
0.47
Energy
0.78
4.33
0.74
3.93
0.05
0.57
Industry
0.84
5.49
0.66
3.37
0.18
4.32
Natural
0.61
19.43
0.60
19.43
0.01
0.03
Residential
0.63
6.26
0.34
1.76
0.30
5.37
Transport
1.16
14.50
0.98
10.93
0.18
3.57
Shipping
0.61
4.64
0.59
4.64
0.03
1.54
All sources
7.19
30.17
6.40
26.71
0.79
8.88
© 2005 E.ON
16 July 2015, E.ON UK, Page 17
Sector contributions to grid averages and maxima
Sector
Total PM2.5
Secondary PM2.5
(µgm-3)
Primary PM2.5
Average
Max
Average
Max
Average
Max
Agriculture
2.33
11.53
2.31
11.49
0.03
0.47
Energy
0.78
4.33
0.74
3.93
0.05
0.57
Industry
0.84
5.49
0.66
3.37
0.18
4.32
Natural
0.61
19.43
0.60
19.43
0.01
0.03
Residential
0.63
6.26
0.34
1.76
0.30
5.37
Transport
1.16
14.50
0.98
10.93
0.18
3.57
Shipping
0.61
4.64
0.59
4.64
0.03
1.54
All sources
7.19
30.17
6.40
26.71
0.79
8.88
© 2005 E.ON
16 July 2015, E.ON UK, Page 18
Exposure approach – population data
Based on Gridded Population of the
World (GPW) dataset, available from
Centre for International Earth Science
Information Network (CIESIN) website
Projected to Lambert Conformal
Projection appropriate for Models-3
Population density in persons per km2
■
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0 - 50 50 200
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■
■
200 500
500 1000
>
1000
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Population exposure
Population exposure to secondary PM2.5 (person.μgm-3km-2)
Agriculture
© 2005 E.ON
Residential
Energy
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Population exposure
Population exposure to primary PM2.5 (person.μgm-3km-2)
Agriculture
© 2005 E.ON
Residential
Energy
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Impact of considering population exposure
Contribution to all source total (%)
45
Mass emitted
40
Grid average concentration
35
Population exposure
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Agriculture
© 2005 E.ON
Energy
Industry
Residential
Transport
Shipping
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Conclusions
• No exceedances of 40 μgm-3 annual mean for PM10 predicted in 2010
• Exceedances of 25 μgm-3 annual mean for PM2.5 in two locations only
• Secondary particulates dominate all source PM concentrations
• Emissions from agriculture dominate secondary concentrations
• Primary concentrations dominated by emissions from transport,
residential and industrial sectors
• Given current evidence for adverse health effects, greatest benefits expected for
emissions reductions in these sectors
• Energy sector contributions to concentrations due to all anthro sources are
relatively low ( 11.2% to total PM2.5, 11.9% to secondary and 6.4% to primary)
• Population exposure approach places even greater emphasis on transport and
residential emissions since air quality impacts high in densely populated areas
© 2005 E.ON
16 July 2015, E.ON UK, Page 23
Any questions?
© 2005 E.ON
16 July 2015, E.ON UK, Page 24