Transcript Slajd 1

WSE EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW
Robert Kwiatkowski - Director
CEE Markets Business Development Department
March, 2008
POLAND – THE LARGEST ECONOMY IN
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
GDP in 2007
Population in 2007 (%, mln)
Hungary
Hungary ( 10 mln)
13%
15%
( 8 mln)
34%
16%
Czech Republic
Austria
Czech Republic
38%
12% Austria
15%
57%
Poland
Poland
( 38 mln)
GDP growth in 2007
8%
6,5%
5,8%
6%
Poland – high growth potential
4%
3,3%
2%
1,4%
Surce: Eurostat
0%
Poland
Czech
Republic
Austria
Hungary
GDP QUARTERLY
GROWTH 2005-2007
%
10,0
8,0
5,5
6,0
4,3
6,0
6,3
6,6
7,2
6,4
6,4
4,4
3,2
4,0
2,4
2,0
0,0
I q.
05
II q. III q. IV q.
05
05
05
Surce: Polish Central Statistical Office
Iq
06
II q
06
III q IV q
06
06
I q.
07
II q. III q.
07
07
High quarterly growth continues
QUARTERLY GROWTH OF INVESTMENTS AND
CONSUMPTION 2005-2007
%
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
26,2
20,8
15,9
10,1
18
19,8
16,6
9
6,4
1,2 1,6
1,4
3,9
I q.
05
2,5
2,5
5,4
4,8
II q. III q. IV q. I q 06 II q
05 05 05
06
Individual consumption
Source:
Polish Central Statistical Office
5,6
5,1
6,9
5,1
III q IV q
06 06
I q.
07
Investments
GDP
5,2
II q. III q.
07 07
Sound base for future growth
of Polish economy
QUARTERLY GROWTH OF FOREIGN TRADE
25,0
GDP
Export
Import
23,7
%
22,4
20,0
16,6
15
17,5
14,6
15,0
9,3
11,7
12,8
12,1
10,1
10,0
9,3
10,8
6,5
6,1
5,0
11,6
11,4
6,0
5,5
3,8
0,9
1,1
6,4
6,4
4,4
4,3
3,2
2,4
7,2
6,6
6,3
1,5
III q. 07
II q. 07
I q. 07
IV q 06
III q 06
II q 06
I q 06
IV q. 05
III q. 05
II q. 05
I q. 05
0,0
Declaining contribution of foreign trade balance to GDP
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND RETAILED
SALES DYNAMICS
%
20,0
18,0
16,0
17,7
16,3
15,4
16,9
16,3
16,1
14,0
13,6
12,6
13,0
12,0
14,3
13,4
12,2
11,3
10,8
10,4
10,0
8,9
10,8
8,5
8,1
8,0
15,9
15,1
15,0
8,1
6,4
6,0
5,6
5,4
4,0
Industrial production
Retail salls
2,0
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
0,0
Strong trend of production and retailed sales continues
INFLATION AND INTEREST RATE IN POLAND
20 %
Inflation rate
Reference rate
15
10
5
0
2001
2002
Surce: Polish Central Statistical Office
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Increasing inflationary pressure
2,0
Surce: European Central Bank
Jan-08
Oct-07
Jul-07
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
Oct-05
Jul-05
Apr-05
4,5
Jan-05
Oct-04
Jul-04
Apr-04
3,0
Jan-04
Oct-03
Jul-03
Apr-03
Jan-03
EUR/PLN, USD/PLN
CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES
5,0
EUR/PLN
4,0
3,5
USD/PLN
2,5
Strenghtening Polish currency after
entering EU
EUROPEAN LABOUR FORCE RATING*
Rank
Country
Rating
1
Poland
+6
2
Denmark
+2
3
Slovenia
+2
4
Switzerland
+2
5
United Kingdom
+2
•
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
•
Poland ranked 1st among
31 European countries
* By Federation of European Employers
Rating based on 15 factors
relating to:
Labour supply
Human capital
Employee relations
Inflationary pressures
Labour flexibility
Rating provides assessment of
HR based investment risk for
foreign companies investing in
another country
INDICES PERFORMANCE IN 2003 -2008
350
300
WIG20
250
NASDAQ
200
150
FTSE 100
DJIA
100
Jan-08
Sep-07
May-07
Jan-07
Sep-06
May-06
Jan-06
Sep-05
May-05
Jan-05
Sep-04
May-04
Jan-04
Sep-03
May-03
Jan-03
50
Strong index WIG20 performance starting from 2005
WSE MARKETS
GPW
WSE
Non-regulated market
WSE Main List
(regulated market)
28
Powielanie bądź publikowanie niniejszego opracowania lub jakiejkolwiek jego części lub rozpowszechnianie w inny sposób informacji zawartych w niniejszym opracowaniu wymaga uprzedniej pisemnej zgody GPW w Warszawie SA
ACCESS TO THE WSE
PUBLIC OFFER
PROSPECTUS
MEMORANDUM
• Financial requirements
• Financial statements together with
auditor’s opinions for at least past three
consecutive financial years
• 6-9 months lasting procedure
PRIVATE PLACEMENT
INFORMATION DOCUMENT
• No financial requirements
• Market accessible for start-ups
• App. 3 months lasting procedure
WSE INDEX FAMILY
13
2007 - NEW COMPANIES
 105 IPOs, including 24 in NewConnect market and 12 foreign companies
 Record high value of offerings: above PLN 18.3 bn (EUR 5.05.bn) (Main market and
NewConnect market)
 Immoeast – the largest ever public offering at WSE worth PLN 10.7 bn (EUR 3 bn)
 Silvano Fashion Group – first Estonian company listed at WSE; additionally at WSE their
IPOs had first companies from Italy, Spain, Cyprus and Sweden
 LC Corp – the largest ever public offering of a private company (PLN 1.06 bn)
 Kernel Holding – the second Ukrainian company at WSE; the offering worth above PLN
500 M
 UniCredit – a company with the highest capitalisation at WSE – approx. PLN 270 bn, i.e.
almost the same value as the value of all foreign companies listed at WSE (approx. PLN
300 bn)
14
2008 - NEW COMPANIES ON WSE MAIN LIST
Company
Date of debut
Issue price or
reference
price)
(in PLN)
Closing price on the
day of debut
(PLN)
Value of IPO (PLN)
Atlas Estates
12.02.08
14,32
16,00
0,00
Optopol
Technology
19,.02.08
20,00
26,81
66 000 000,00
ZM Herman
28.02.08
1,80
1,91
1 905 249,60
Skyline
Investment
18.03.08
9,00
18 000 000,00
15
2008 - NEW COMPANIES ON NEWCONNECT
Company
Date of debut
Value of new issue
(PLN)
Cost (PLN)
(%)
1
Alumast
2008-01-03
2 434 600,00
130 700,00
5,37
2
Polman
2008-01-10
2 985 680,00
240 026,00
8,04
3
Grupa Pactor-Potempa
Inkasso S.A.
2008-01-18
2 550 000,00
83 000,00
3,25
4
Euro Consulting &
Management S.A.
2008-01-24
9 767 230,00
734 097,93
7,52
5
Rodan Systems
2008-01-28
4 725 182,00
196 302,49
4,15
6
Organic Farma
Zdrowia
2008-01-30
10 712 135,20
541 398,38
5,05
7
Blue Tax Group
2008-02-06
4 000 000,00
440 000,00
11,00
8
VENO
2008-02-07
0,00
9
EPIGON
2008-02-13
0,00
10
KRYNICKI
RECYKLING
2008-02-14
4 000 046,60
246 891,00
6,17
11
MAXIPIZZA
2008-02-21
0,00
12
ATON-HT
2008-02-29
8 850 000,00
377 500,00
4,26
13
EUROIMPLANT
2008-03-18
11 100 016,00
806 000,00
7,26
TOTAL
62 258 218,80
16
WSE PREFORMANCE – 2007 vs 2006
2007
2006
Change
WIG 20 index
3,456
3,286
5.2%
2,873
WIG Index
55,649
50,412
10.4%
46,397
No. of listed
companies
351
284
23.6%
353
No. Of IPOs
81
38
113.2%
4
Market capitalisation
(domestic
companies) (PLNbn)
509.9
437.7
16.5%
414.2
Market capitalisation
(total)(PLNbn)
1,080.2
635.9
69.9%
887.5
479.5
320.3
49.7%
83.2
Value of traded
shares (PLNbn)
Mar 27, 2008
17
INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES LISTED ON WSE (1)
COMPANY
COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
SECTOR
BANK AUSTRIA CREDITANSTALT AG (2003)
AUSTRIA
BANKING
BMP AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (2004)
GERMANY
NEW TECHNOLOGY/IT
MOL (2004)
HUNGARY
CHEMICAL
AMREST HOLDING NV. (2005)
NETHERLANDS
OTHER SERVICES (Pizza Hut,
KFC Restaurants)
SKYEUROPE AG(2005)
AUSTRIA
OTHER SERVICES (airlines)
ASTARTA (August 2006)
UKRAINE / NETHERLANDS
AGRICULTURE/FOOD
ASSECO SLOVAKIA (October 2006)
SLOVAKIA
NEW TECHNOLOGY/IT
CEZ (October 2006)
CZECH REPUBLIC
OTHER SERVICES (energy
production)
CINEMA CITY (December 2006)
NETHERLANDS
MEDIA
CENTRAL EUROPEAN DISTRIBUTION
CORPORATION (December 2006)
USA
TRADE/WHOLESALE/RETAIL
PEGAS NONWOVENS (December 2006)
CZECH REPUBLIC
CHEMICAL
18
INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES LISTED ON WSE (2)
COMPANY
WARIMPEX (January 2007)
COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
AUSTRIA
SECTOR
CONSTRUCTION
IMMOEAST (May 2007)
AUSTRIA
FINANCE OTHER
ACE (June 2007)
SPAIN/LUXEMBOURG
METAL
ORCO PROPERTY GROUP (June 2007)
LUXEMBOURG
CONSTRUCTION
AS SILVANO FASHION GROUP (July 2007)
ESTONIA
LIGHT INDUSTRY
OLYMPIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP
(September 2007)
ESTONIA
OTHER SERVICES (casino
operator)
Plaza Center N.V. (October 2007)
NETHERLANDS
DEVELOPERS /SHOPPING AND
ENTERTAINMENT CENTERS/
ASBIS (October 2007) /MOVE FROM AIM/
CYPRUS
RONSON (November 2007)
ISRAEL / NETHERLANDS
IT /COMPUTER EQUIPMENT
DISTRIBUTOR/
DEVELOPERS
KERNEL (November 2007)
UKRAINE/LUXEMBOURG
FOOD
REINHOLD POLSKA (December 2007)
SWEDEN
DEVELOPERS
UNICREDIT (December 2007)
ITALY
BANKING
19
INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES LISTED ON WSE (3)
COMPANY
ATLAS ESTATES (February 2008)
COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
CHANNEL ISLANDS
SECTOR
DEVELOPERS
20
IN THE PIPELINE
COMPANY
CYFROWY POLSAT
GAMET /FSA in Luxembourg/
DATE OF PROSPECTUS
APPROVAL BY KNF
January 2008
November 2007
HARDEX
January 2008
HARPER HYGIENICS
January 2008
HOOPLA.PL
September 2007
K2 INTERNET
January 2008
KROSGLASS
December 2007
POWER MEDIA
February 2008
PRO-BUD
December 2007
UNIBEP
February 2008
VOBIS
February 2008
WOJTAS
February 2008
21
WSE SECTOR INDICATORS, as of March 27, 2008 (1)
Name
Number
of
companies
Market value
(PLN
m.)
Share in
market
P/BV
P/E
Industry
1
Food
21
15 023.38
1.65
3.21
15.5
2
Light Industry
12
2 178.80
0.24
1.78
63
3
Wood & Paper
8
5 879.42
0.65
2.32
12.9
4
Chemicals
20
16 680.57
1.84
1.88
10.1
5
Oil & Gas
6
80 300.16
8.84
1.37
10.1
6
Building materials
15
7 535.90
0.83
2.79
24.8
7
Construction
30
20 900.93
2.30
4.04
34.7
8
Electroengineering
26
9 806.69
1.08
1.90
11
9
Metals
19
31 139.71
3.43
2.22
6.8
10
Industry - others
4
532.77
0.06
1.39
190.9
22
WSE SECTOR INDICATORS, as of March 27, 2008 (2)
Name
Number of
companies
Market value
(PLN m.)
Share in
market
P/BV
P/E
Finance
11
Banking
17
468 644.55
51.58
1.79
10.1
12
Insurance
1
1 055.25
0.12
4.08
13.1
13
Developers
17
26 193.27
2.88
1.84
8.3
14
Finance - others
24
22 210.23
2.44
0.70
8.8
Services
15
Retails
23
15 544.93
1.71
4.57
26.8
16
Wholesale
28
12 725.83
1.40
2.36
19.4
17
IT
32
11 368.72
1.25
1.84
18.1
18
Telecom
7
33 923.84
3.73
1.68
16.3
19
Media
14
14 381.13
1.58
3.53
26.9
20
Energetics
5
104 172.37
11.47
4.29
18.1
21
Hotels &
Restaurants
7
6 133.07
0.68
2.17
20.7
22
Services - others
14
2 181.46
0.24
2.26
x
23
Number of companies
Te IT
le
co
m
H
ot
M
el
e
E
s
d
& ner ia
R g
S es etic
er ta s
vi u
ce ra
s nt
-o s
th
er
s
Li
gh Fo
W t In od
o o du
d st
& ry
P
C ap
he e
m r
B
ic
O
ui
al
ld il
s
in &
g
G
m as
a
E Co ter
le
n
ct st ials
ro ru
en ct
gi ion
ne
er
In
i
du M ng
st e
ry ta
- o ls
th
e
B rs
an
I n k in
su g
ra
Fi De v nc
na e e
n c lo p
e
e
- o rs
th
er
R s
W e ta
h o ils
le
sa
le
WSE MAIN LIST COMPANIES – SECTORS AND
SHARE IN MARKET CAP
Share in market value %
35
60
30
50
25
40
20
15
30
10
20
5
10
0
0
24
LARGEST COMPANIES IN THE REGION
LISTED ON THE WSE
Company
Sector
Market value
(PLNm)
banking
206 481,36
1,38
9,2
energetics
100 142,85
4,34
17,9
P/BV
P/E
1
UNICREDIT
2
CEZ
3
BACA
banking
96 975,24
1,74
7,9
4
PEKAO
banking
43 247,27
2,97
20
5
PKOBP
banking
39 080,00
3,28
13,5
6
TPSA
telecom
30 414,14
1,71
13,4
7
MOL
oil&gas
29 941,41
2,67
8,3
8
PGNIG
oil&gas
26 845,00
1,26
21,5
9
KGHM
metal industry
19 100,00
2,02
4,8
10
IMMOEAST
other financial
16 518,06
0,58
7,1
11
PKNORLEN
oil&gas
15 264,94
0,77
6,6
12
LOTOS
oil&gas
3 582,69
0,62
4,7
25
Robert Kwiatkowski,
Tel: +48 22 537 70 98,
[email protected],
CEE Markets Business Development Department
Warsaw Stock Exchange
4 Książęca Str., 00-498 Warsaw
Poland
26