Transcript File
Friday is the end of the Quarter!
Objective:
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I will be able to predict what Russia will do next in the Crimean Conflict.
Language Objective:
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I will use a sentence stem to answer a question.
Vocabulary
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Trade Pact – agreement between countries on terms of trade.
European Union - A group of European countries that participates in the world economy as one economic unit Pawn - used by others for their own purposes.
The West – Europe and countries of European colonial history.
Autonomous region - self-governing region in terms of local issues.
Prime Minister – similar to a president Breadbasket – area that is very fertile and produces more food than it needs for its people.
Soviet Union 1922 - 1991
Ukraine
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Becomes part of the Soviet Union by 1921.
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Breaks away in 1991 when the Soviet Union dissolves.
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Known as the breadbasket of Europe due to its fertile farmland.
Long Term Issues
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The biggest nation separating the EU and Russia.
Often seen as a pawn between Russia and the West.
A geostrategic pipeline runs through the Ukraine.
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Both the US and Russia have sought to influence events to their benefit.
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Began in the Bush era.
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Accelerated with Obama.
Black Sea Fleet stationed in Crimea .
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2010 agreement permitted the fleet to stay until 2042.
Ukrainian Crisis
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Started out as a protest over the handling of a trade pact with European Union.
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A contentious election in 2010 saw pro-Russia candidate and former Prime Minister Yanukovych win with narrow margins over Prime Minister Tymoshenko.
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Yanukovych won with strong support in the Eastern regions, with most regions in the West favoring Tymoshenko.
Ukrainian Revolution
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November 2013 – the President refuses to sign a trade pact with the EU.
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Had been promising for a year to sign it.
Would have created closer ties with the EU and generated economic growth.
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Asks Russia for a $20 Billion loan.
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Russia threatened to charge higher prices for gas is the Ukraine signed the trade deal with the EU.
Pro-EU Ukrainians began protesting, eventually forcing Yanukovych from office.
Crimea
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Autonomous region of the Ukraine 1954- part of Soviet Union
(Russia + 14 other countries Russia took over)
1991 - voted to leave Russia and join with the Ukraine
Russia Black Fleet (Navy) stationed on Crimea.
2008 – Russia gives out Russian passports to Crimean citizens (makes them citizens of Russia).
Russia Invades Crimea?
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February 27 th , 2014, unidentified pro-Russian troops seize control.
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Russia’s only year-round link to the Mediterranean Sea.
Has controlled a port in Crimea for 230 years.
Russia claims ethnic Russians were being mistreated.
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There is no evidence of this.
March 16 th , 2014 – Crimea to vote on whether to join Russia or stay with the Ukraine.
Ukrainian Prime Minister declares the invasion an act of war.
Russia/Soviet Union
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Georgia, 2008.
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Cross-border tensions with Russia exploded into a five-day
conflict that saw Russian tanks and troops pour into the breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as well as Georgian cities.
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Russia and Georgia each blamed the other for starting the conflict
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Russia still has control of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
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Afghanistan, 1979
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Soviet Union invades; fails to conquer.
Legal Issues
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Russia has clearly recognized Ukraine and its
present borders. This was confirmed in:
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The Alma Ata Declaration of December 1991, which consigned the Soviet Union to history, The Budapest memorandum of 1994, offering security guarantees to Ukraine in exchange for removing nuclear weapons from its territory The 1997 agreement on the stationing of the Black Sea fleet in Crimean ports.
International Law says you cannot forcibly rescue foreigners declared nationals.
Russia says it was invited in by the former PM; becomes a non issue once he was forced out.
What Will Russia Do?
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Use Force
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Could easily defeat the Ukraine (Black Sea Fleet encircles 60% of the Ukraine).
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Would be disruptive to industry, agriculture, oil and gas sales in the region for years.
Retreat
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60% of Crimea speaks Russian
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Retreat with conditions
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Crimea becomes semi-independent
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Only year-round warm water access to the Mediterranean Gets a permanent agreement to keep the port in Crimea.
Advance into Ukraine
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Shows the world that they are not to be messed with.
TOD
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I predict that Russia will ________________________________.