Transcript Business Cycle Analysis - Pedagogisk Time

FIE403 BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS
«DEN STORE KONJUNKTUR-
ANALYSEKONKURRANSEN»
DSKAK
Pedagogisk Time – 20. May 2014
[email protected]
[email protected]
Business Cycle Analysis -- Teaching Aims
• Good knowledge of business cycle concept, impulses and
propagation mechanism
• Do quantitive analysis of business cycle fluctuations,
decompose macroeconomic series in trend, cycle and
seasonal component and trend projction.
• Good empirical knowledge over business cycle indicators
and predictions
• Overview over macroeconomic schools of thought within
modern business cycle theories
• Overview over central theories of monetary policy and interest
rate management
• Ability to evaluate current business cycle conditions and
prospects ahead
Business Cycle Analysis -- Course Overview
• 15 lectures (G. Doppelhofer, Birger Vikøren)
• Guest lectures
- Svein Gjedrem (Fin. Dep.)
- Kjersti Haugland (DnB)
- H.M. Andreassen (First Securities)
• A «big» practical methodological exercise
(Ole-Petter Moe Hansen)
• Participation in DSKAK
DSKAK- «Den Store
KonjunkturanAlyseKonkurransen»
• Students in groups up to 5, submit predictions for 10
macroeconomic indicators that are published during
next month
• Submission by change of month February, March
and April
• «Godfathers» …
- Jan Tore Klovland
- Øystein Thøgersen
3
DSKAK Indicators
1. USA: Purchasing
6. Norway: PMI
managers index (PMI) 7. Norway: Consumer
for manufacturing
price index (KPI-JAE)
2. USA: Leading indicator 8. Norway: Housing prices
(composite)
3. USA: Unemployment
rate
4. USA: Employment
5. USA: Housing prices
9. Petroleumfund (NBIM):
end of month value
10. OSBEX index
11. a. end of month value
b. 10% lower bound
c. 10% upper bound
5
3
DSKAK Example – Norwegian PMI
• Total Norwegian PMI (orders received, production,
employment, delivery time, inventories over
purchsed goods) level (percent – diffusion index)
6
DSKAK - Example
Gruppenavn
Gruppens deltagere
Navn
Student 1
Student 2
Student 3
Prognoser
1. USA: Innkjøpssjefenes indeks for industri
2. USA: Sammensatt ledende indikator
3. USA: Arbeidsledighetsrate
4. USA: Sysselsetting
5. USA: Boligpriser
6. Norge: Innkjøpssjefindeks PMI
7. Norge: Konsumpriser (KPI-JAE)
8. Norge: Boligpriser
9. Petroleumsfond ved månedsslutt
10a OSEBX Sluttkurs
10b OSEBX Nedre grense (10%)
10c OSEBX Øvre grense (10%)
Leveres på It's Learning
Eksempelgruppe
Studentnr
s123
s456
s789
Februar
57,2
0,8
6,7
74
13,6
51,6
2,1
-0,6
5312
575
585
560
Mars
April
DSKAK Example: Inflation in Norway
• How will consumer prices change next month?!
DSKAK: and the winner is…
• Group with best predictions wins (measured in
terms of absolute deviations, extra points for «spot
on», penalties for late submissions)
• Winner receives diploma signed by Doppelhofer,
Gjedrem og Vikøren.
• Very enthusiastic participation
• Very good feedback about course in student
evaluations
Example from 2013: Skill vs. Luck
• Skill implies 𝛽 = 1 , pure luck 𝛽 = 0
Rank Februar vs Rank Mars
40
35
30
25
20
Rank F vs Rank M
15
10
5
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40