Transcript Slide 1

Tidal Energy,
Needs and Technology
Outline of Talk
• Motivation
– Why don’t we just use ________________
(fill in the blank)
– The current state of the industry
• John Ferland “P-guy” Ocean Renewable Power
Company
• There is stuff in the water
– Other developers, technology and barrier
issues
Global Climate
Anthropogenic CO2
And the Role of Tidal and
Alternative Energy
A “Maine-Centric” Perspective
Can’t we just use wind, solar, biomass, off-shore wind, nuclear, geothermal
Michael “Mick” Peterson, Ph.D.
UMaine
Numbers and thinking by
Anna Demeo
UMaine & College of the Atlantic
World Situation….
• “Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal “ 1
• “Most of the observed increase in globally
averaged temperatures since the mid-20th
century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic (human)
greenhouse gas concentrations.” 1
1 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Sciences Basis, IPCC,
<http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html>. Retrieved on 01-01-2007
Carbon Footprints….
• The average Portland resident
emitted 0.908 tons of CO2 from
residential fuels – highest in
the country and 1.443 tons of
CO2 from transportation
• The average Los Angeles resident
emitted 0.391 tons of CO2 from
residential energy use and 1.022
tons of CO2 from transportation
So who has a problem!
Portland Maine has a 66% higher per capita footprint
Climate Change….
What if I don’t Care
About Climate Change?
• The first industry auction of carbon dioxide
allowances already took place in the Regional
Greenhouse Gas Initiative
• It's the first mandatory carbon regulatory venture
in the United States.
• Carbon in the northeast now has a value
AND
• Oil is expensive and comes from people who are
not necessarily friendly
US and Maine Situation
• 40.5 percent of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in
the United States result from combustion of
fossil fuels for electrical generation 2.
• Maine electricity CURRENTLY averages 13.18
cents per kilowatt hour,
>39% higher than the average for the U. S.3
• Over 80% of Maine homes heat with fuel oil,
the highest in the nation
•[2] Energy Information Administration, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States
1998, Chapter 2, "Carbon Dioxide Emissions," DOE/EIA-0573(98) (Washington, DC, October
1999).
[3] Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly with data for September
2007http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table5_6_a.html retrieved 12-31-07
ME Sources of Residential Heat
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/state/state_energy_profiles.cfm?sid=ME
Fuel Oil = 80%
Natural Gas = 4%
Propane = 5%
Electricity = 5%
Wood/other = 6%
The rest of the Northeast is less extreme, trends exist.
Natural Gas
Fuel Oil
Electricity
Propane
Wood/Other
Energy Use for Residential
Home Heating
1E+14
9E+13
Heating Oil Point of Origin
8E+13
6%
7%
7E+13
Canada
BTU
6E+13
Venezuela
17%
Virgin Islands
5E+13
70%
4E+13
Russia,Korea,Saudi
Arabia
Mostly from friendly places though!
3E+13
2E+13
1E+13
0
Fuel Oil
Natural Gas
Propane
Fuel Type
Wood (soft)
Electricity
Energy Use: Heating Fuel
Fuel Type
Quantity used
Total BTU
Total CO2
(million lbs)
Heating Oil
15,610 thousand
Barrels
(8 supertankers)
9.31 x 10^13
15024
Natural Gas
4965 million ft3
4.96 x 10^12
580.7
Propane
2109 Thousand
Barrels
8.15 x 10^13
1133
Electricity
1.39 x 10^9 kWh
4.75x 10^12
831.5
Wood
155,000 Chords
2.33 x 10^13
61*
0.908 tons of CO2 for each Maine Resident
*Wood is often considered zero emissions
**Source: Energy Information Administration: www.eia.doe.gov
Let’s Convert to Electric Heat
Current Situation:
Quantity: 15,610 thousand
barrels of Oil for residential heating
Cost: $4.2/gal = $2.75 billion
CO2 Emissions: 14,675 million lbs
Convert to heat pump
w/ COP = 3
Quantity: 9309 million kWh for
equivalent of Oil for
residential heating
Cost: $.1636/kWh = $1.52 billion
CO2 Emissions: 10,649.5 million lbs *
(1.144 lbs CO2/kWh)
*figures based on National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory annual report
Reduce Heating CO2 by 27% and price volatility… a lot of power
Cost of Heat Pumps
• 425,000 households convert from fuel oil to heat
pumps at $3500 (cost may vary)
• One Time Cost:
$1.5 Billion to convert to heat pumps
• Yearly Fuel Savings:
$4580/year/house … $1.94 Billion/year.
• 27% reduction in CO2 from heating
Result: Maine 40% higher not 132% higher
than LA in residential CO2
Is this is too good to be true!! What is the catch?
Current Electricity Generation:
Power Plant
Amount (MWh)
Petroleum Fired
25,000
Natural Gas Fired
602,000
Coal Fired
44,000
Hydroelectric
319,000
Other Renewables
319,000
Convert residential oil heat to electric heat with heat pump
requires an additional 9.5 million kWh of annual electricity
generation:
What are the options? This is a lot of electricity
If we do not consider generation demand will drive up costs
The Catch!
Electric Power for Supply
• We need to replace the oil with electricity
– 9.5 million kWh of annual electricity
– A 5 month heating season
– More than 2.5 GWatts of Generating Capacity
• Options
– Nuclear
– Wind
– Water Power
Everything else is in
short supply and/or
has a big carbon footprint!
Carbon has a $$$ value now!
The Nuclear Option
• We need >2.5 GWatts Capacity
– This is more than 4 Vermont Yankee size plants
(93% capacity factor!)
– One 1.350GW nuclear reactor costs $6 - 9 Billion or
$4500 - $6500 / kW (FLP and Review)
– Your cost $11-16 Billion (plus heat pumps)
• CO2 from nuclear*
– 1,354 million lbs of CO2 vs. Oil at 10,649 million lbs
– Nuclear plants emit almost no CO2 at point of generation but contribute from
uranium preparation for the reactor including: mining, milling the ore, fuel
enrichment and fuel-rod fabrication.
Greenpeace -- (.377 lbs CO2/kWh) Nuclear Industry 606 million lbs (.065 lbs CO2/kWh)
August 2008 issue of the peer-reviewed journal Energy Policy :
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2008/07/15/nuclear-power-a-false-solution-climate-change.html
Off-Shore Wind
• Costs
– Infrastructure needs, 60 miles off-shore cabling & 2.5
GWatt Capacity, $1.5 billion in cabling
- Estimated installed Cost $1500-2500 kW,
Real life: Arklow, GE Project in Ireland, $3600 kW*
- Result: (45% Capacity) $3800 - $9000 kW (Ocean
energy conference number $8000 kW)
- Capital Costs -- $9-22 Billion
- CO2 from off-shore wind*
– More than a 95% reduction in CO2 vs. Oil
– Wind plants emit no CO2 at point of generation but contribute from manufacturing,
construction, maintenance and servicing costs.
*50 million £ for 25 MWatts 10 km off-shore
We need an economic rescue
$9-22 Billion in Investment
This will solve the Maine CO2 Problem
And our economic exposure
The capital required for a simple fix does not exist
We also need a fast solution even if it is partial
No Single Solution for Any of Us
• Diversify our energy portfolio
– Like a GOOD investor
– Costing of options is CO2 plus capital
• Nothing is too small to matter if it is robust
– Can afford the capital costs
– Can we make the system work
• Our options
– Tidal
– Biomass
– Terrestrial wind
Biomass/Heat Pump
• Home heating solution
– Heat pump for the warmer days
– Pellet stove for the cold days
• Perfect solution
– Increased COP for heat pump,
it is working when efficient
– Pellet stove to keep up on the cold days, and uses
our limited supply of wood when needed
– Even in Maine need pellet stove 14 days per year
• Well suited to “spot heating”
• Results:
lower carbon footprint,
reduced capital demand
Terrestrial Wind
• New England and Maine have wind resources consistent
with utility-scale production in the following areas:
– Ridges and crests of NorthCentral and Northwestern Maine
– Presque Isle Area
– Adirondacks
– Etc….
• Nationally some key
resource areas
– North Dakota – Underdeveloped grid
– Texas – Fast developing
– Great Plains
• Will be up to 20% of US power over
capacity factor and limits on location
Tidal Energy
• In Maine
250-400 MWatts in 1-5 years
• Larger than terrestrial wind
• A unique resource in Maine
• One of the leading efforts in North America
– Ocean Renewable
Power Company:
– Nascent research effort
with Maine Maritime
Academy and UMaine