Losing Air Dominance?

Hard Lessons in Strategic Planning

What is Air Dominance?

Operation Desert Storm, 1991

23,455

Ground Attack Air Superiority

43,735

• • • •

Air superiority over enemy to meet joint force goals Freedom to attack

…any target, with mission success

Freedom from attack

…defeat of enemy fighters and SAMs

Freedom to maneuver

…for forces on land or sea

Iraq and Afghanistan

2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Sorties Flown 2004 to 2008 OEF CAS OIF CAS 0 5000 10000 15000 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2004 Munitions Dropped 2004 to 2008 OIF OEF 2005 2006 2007 2008 20000

The Plan After 1991

• Success of F-117 in 1991 Gulf war set Air Force position on stealth • Fighter force structure cut by 44% as Cold War ended • Replacement strategy: • 1991: Advanced Tactical Fighter • program down-select to maintain air dominance technologies • 1994: Joint Strike Fighter research initiated as affordable stealth fighter/attack to replace F-16 and A-10 force structure

“Never again buy a non-stealthy fighter”

– Chief of Staff Gen. McPeak

Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1963-2008

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 63

*Estimates 59 F-117s

68 73

Today’s CAF purchased

78 83 88 93 98

F-117 F-22 F-15E F-16 (A/B/C/D) A/OA-10 F-15 (A/B/C/D) F-111 F-5 F-4 F-105

2003 2008

The Force Mix Active Component 1995

Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22 • • Force healthy in mid-1990s • Steady fighter buys in 1980s recapitalized force

1995:

Legacy fighters over 18 years less than 1% of active force

2500 2000 1500 1000 500

Aircraft Under 18 yrs Aircraft Over 18 yrs

0 1990 1995 2000 Only 6 aircraft over 18 yrs.

TAI Active Only

2003 Operation Iraqi Freedom: Aircraft Felt Their Age

Mission Capable Rates

Operation Desert Storm vs. Operation Iraqi Freedom

100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 Desert Storm: Data 28 Feb 91 F-15C Iraqi Freedom: Data Average F-15E F-117 F-16

• Decline from Operation Desert Storm averaged over 10% • F-15C average age = 18 years

F-22s

• • •

F-22 is first supersonic stealth aircraft 2 engine, supercruise design with ample internal missiles Designed to assure air dominance through fleet life ~2040

–

Depends on number of aircraft procured

From Three Fighters to One

• F-117: Stealth attack of heavily defended targets • F-15E: Advanced air-to-ground platform • F-15: Air superiority fighter with 100 kills, no air combat losses

410

F-15C/D F-15E F-117

200 55 665 Total Active F-15, F-15E and F-117

F-22 183 Currently Funded 381 F-22s Air Force Requirement

How to See Stealth

NOT STEALTH

• In contrast, the F-22 has four internal weapons bays and targeting integrated with its avionics

STEALTH

• This F-15E from Lakenheath on an OIF mission carried fuel, targeting pods, air-to ground weapons and air to-air missiles externally • Internal fuel and weapons bays greatly improve the F-22’s stealth – The two side-bay doors are open here

F-22 and F-35: Partnership

F-22 technology development and risk reduction flow to F-35

F119/F120 Engine Development Integrated, open architecture avionics Radar Computer-based maintenance Advanced LO Materials and Manufacturing Unique F-22 Capabilities

300

True to Plan:

Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1988-2015 250 200 150 100

1991 Gulf War F-35 F-22 F-15E F-16 (A/B/C/D) A/OA-10 F-15 (A/B/C/D)

F-22 and F-35 would have led to smaller force, more precision and survivability, no legacy aircraft 50 0 88 93 98 2003 2008 2013

Estimate

Comptroller’s Plan December 2004: PBD 753

(FY06 PB) • PBD 753 cut $10B from F-22 program (100 aircraft) • Pushed long-term funding far below stated requirement

$10.5B Cut $46.1B Cut ~2,167 req’t.

F-22 F-15C F-15E

~ 1772 QDR ~1285 funded 197 190

More O&S costs for old Fighters

300

Crisis:

Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1988-2015 250 200

1991 Gulf War F-35 F-22 F-15E F-16 (A/B/C/D) A/OA-10 F-15 (A/B/C/D)

150 100 Budget cuts shrink force below QDR requirement 50 0 88 93 98 2003 2008

Estimate

2013

The Legacy Force Mix

Active Component Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft • • • Steady fighter buys in 1980s recapitalized force • From 1990 to 2008, active fighter and attack force shed ~1000 aircraft

1995:

Legacy fighters over 18 years less than 1% of active force

2008:

Legacy fighters over 18 years 55% of active force

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1990

A-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22

1995 2000

Aircraft Under 18 yrs Aircraft Over 18 yrs

2005 2008 Only 6 aircraft over 18 yrs.

784 aircraft over 18 yrs.

TAI Active Only

2

F-22 Force Sizing

Langley AFB NATO: No F-22s 2 Holloman AFB Elmendorf AFB 2 CENTCOM AOR PACOM AOR 1 Hickam AFB

Current:

• Program of Record is 183 total aircraft buy • • Will yield ~126 Combat-Coded Aircraft

7 Squadrons

18 PAA

Considerations:

• New administration budget guidance • F-22 availability for NATO • PACOM force structure – Option for Japan*

Threat Environment

• Iraq 2003: 2884 launches in 25 days – Peak: 190 launches on Day 15 • Persistent mobile SAMs moved daily – SA-2, SA-3, SA-6s, Rolands – 66% were unlocated despite 12 years of operations and one year of accelerated SAM destruction • Kosovo 1999: 894 SAM launches in 78 days – Peak: 43 launches on Day 39 2884 Iraqi Surface to Air Missile Launches in 2003

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2 113 67 96 92 61 47 143 149 54 105 93 65 90 190 93 105 23 14 19 9 17 4 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 5 3 24 25 SA-20

Threats can persist for weeks even against older defenses US forces have not yet faced SA-20

Red Air

Lethal SAMS and Red air • ~1200 F-10 advanced 4 th Gen fighters in production – DIA estimates similar to Typhoon, Rafale • Su-30 and Su-33 purchases • Work on AWACS-like system based on IL-76 • Acquisition of 8 Russian air refueling aircraft • Complete radar coverage of all borders “You will be outnumbered…”

ADM Willard, Commander, US Pacific Fleet, Sep 2008

PRC F-10

Source: DoD Report, 2006

Getting Back on Track?

• Ratio gets worse, before it gets better • Fighter force reaches 80% legacy circa 2014 • Recovers to 62% legacy circa 2020 – Assumes 243 total F-22s – Assumes ramp rate to 80 USAF F-35s per year • Active total inventory declines to 1320 – Guard and Reserve forces steadily age out • Fighter and attack force highly capable but limited in number of joint tasks it can serve

TAI Active Only

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22

1990 1995 2000 2005

Aircraft Under 18 yrs Aircraft Over 18 yrs

2008 2014 2020

Estimate

F-22 Termination Options

Current Program Lot 10 then defer to QDR Analysis Yields ~203 F-22s

Fleet Size 183 OSD 200 220 Lot 10 Lot 11 CJCS: “60” 240 Lot 12

Maintain service life to 2038

260 280 300 339

• Sustain force with 3 more lots – 20-24 acft per lot • Synchronize with F-35 way forward – Hedge F-35 concurrency risk • 10 squadrons total – Take from back-up inventory, training and attrition reserve to create 10 squadrons

381 USAF

Way Ahead…

• No service depends more on F-35 than the USAF • Only program of maturity and scale to maintain USAF fighter and attack missions • Biggest risk: restricting program build up from 2010 to 2015 • Essential for Navy, Marine Corps and allies

F-22 Workforce Impact

“I can throw a blanket over the production line to keep it warm, but what about the people?”

-- F-22 Program Manager

30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2008 • F-22 has 26,657 direct jobs in 2008 – At full rate, F-35 will transfer 5300 jobs* programs 2009 To F-35 F-22 Option 2010

If Production Continues

2011 2012 – 4,400 jobs remain on F-22 after 2011

17,000

2013 some to other • Permanent loss of

17,000

highly skilled jobs 2014 WA CT GA NH TX CA Other 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2008 0 1000 2009 2000

Jobs Lost at F-22 Production Termination

2010 3000 2011 2012 2013

Direct F-22 Jobs

4000

by State

5000 6000 7000 2014 8000