Transcript Slide 1

Worldwide market for railway
infrastructure
UNIFE Study Key Findings & Outlook 2016
EFRTC General Assembly
Brussels, 28 November 2008
Agenda
1. The world market for rail infrastructure : status quo, trends
and forecasts
2. Overall industry trends and impact on the rail
infrastructure market
Total rail supply market volume exceeds
EUR 120 bn, infrastructure EUR 22 bn
Key data Worldwide Rail Market Study
ACCESSIBLE MARKET2)
TOTAL MARKET
Average market volumes 05-07 Growth p.a. Average market volumes 05-07 Growth p.a.
Rail control
Infrastructure
Rolling stock
Services
1231)
10
2.0-2.5%
3.0-3.5%
22
2.5-3.0%
37
53
2.0-2.5%
Rail control
861)
10
2.5-3.0%
3.0-3.5%
Infrastructure
17
2.5-3.0%
Rolling stock
31
2.0-2.5%
Services
27
3.5-4.0%
2.0-2.5%
1) Figures are including market volume for project integration,
Growth rates are 9-year average growth rates
2) ACCESSIBLE MARKET: Part of the market open to any external supplier
3) Infrastructure segment includes rail, sleepers, ballast, ballastless, catenary, traction
power supply
3
35% of the rail market volume
originates from Western Europe
Accessible market volume rail market [EUR m] – average 05-071)
Infrastructure
Rolling
stock
Rail
control
Services

Western Europe
6,307
10,718
4,641
7,651
29,317
Eastern Europe
0,986
1,615
0,587
1,709
4,897
CIS
0,639
2,500
0,421
2,004
5,564
NAFTA
5,702
5,260
1,098
8,739
20,799
Rest of America
0,238
0,787
0,187
1,508
2,720
Asia/Pacific
2,652
8,335
2,217
4,976
18,180
Africa/
Middle East
0,570
2,090
0,502
0,349
3,511
17,094
31,305
9,653
26,936
84,988
REGIONS [%]
Other
Western
Europe
35
20
Asia/ 21
Pacific
24
NAFTA
Rail Control
11
Infrastructure 20
Services
32
SEGMENTS [%]
Rolling
37 Stock

1) Excluding market volume for project integration
4
Facts and figures on the rail infrastructure
market
VHS, mainline, freight
1.5 million km of passenger and freight infrastructure installed worldwide, 75%
of which located in NAFTA, Asia/Pacific and Western Europe
 69% of world’s rail infrastructure is mainline
 half a million km of electrified track currently installed worldwide
-1/3 in Western Europe where half of all track km are already electrified
- NAFTA represents only 1% of world electrified infrastructure
Urban rail
 70% of world’s 56,000 km of urban track are dedicated to light rail operation
Metro infrastructure gaining share in Asia/Pacific and Western Europe, light rail
infrastructure mainly in CIS and Eastern Europe
Expected growth per product
category ranges from 2% to 4%
Annual growth rates accessible market volume 2007-2016 [% p.a.]
Infrastructure
Rolling Stock
Rail control
Services
Above average
growth foreseen for
electrification in the
mainline segment
High growth expected for (V)HS
trains, intercity
multiple units and
light rail vehicles –
slight decline in
demand for coaches
Significant growth
foreseen for ETCS
(within and outside
of Europe) and
CBTC systems
Solid, global
development
and increasing
accessibility
expected, also
due to increasing
rolling stock base
2.0% – 2.5%
3.0 – 3.5%
3.5% – 4.0%
2.5% – 3.0%
6
Regional growth focus - mainline
Annual growth rates, accessible market, superstructure and electrification, VHS/
mainline, 2007-2016 [%]
 Rest of America
and NAFTA to
enter VHS market
in next few years
 Negative growth
rate for Eastern
Europe to be
explained by
Turkish important
orders in 05-07
Regional growth focus – urban rail
Annual growth rates, accessible market, superstructure and electrification,
urban rail, 2007-2016 [%]
 in the LT,
need for
mass
transport
systems in
growing
metropolitan
areas (Asia)
Short-term growth boosted by huge
rolling stock and infrastructure projects
Short-term (2008-2010) and long-term annual growth rates of annual market
volume for rolling stock and infrastructure (EUR bn)
Overall trends favor the industry's
development
Selection of relevant major trends
Urbanisation
Ecological awareness &
energy consumption
results in additional
favour rail as an environand lasting demand for
mentally friendly
public rail transport, esp.
transport mode
in emerging megacities
and metropolitan areas
Leasing &
Financing
facilitates operators'
demand and
generates additional
demand through internationalisation of
leasing companies
ERTMS
Deregulation
and liberalisation
higher competition for
rail operation
increases demand for
new rolling stock
opens European
markets and creates
Shortage of engiadditional demand from
neering capacity
implementation outside
may become the
of Europe
bottleneck for growth
Indicates impact on the industry
10
Providing Competitive Railway Systems
for Increased Rail Traffic
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