Transcript Stars Fell On Alabama Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce

2007 Economic Forum
Information provided by
Jacksonville State University
Center for Economic Development and
College of Commerce and Business Administration
Building on Past Success,
Building for the Future:
Overview
• Calhoun County Update
• State of Alabama Update
1
Calhoun County 2007 Update
• Housing
• Member
Survey
• Business
Licenses
• Population
•
Retail
Sales
• Employment
• Infrastructure
• Cost of Living
2
Q#1: Your Comparison of this Year to Last
This year
worse
7%
Year 2007
This year
better
58%
About
same
35%
3
Q#1: Your Comparison of this Year to Last
2003-2007
% "This Year Better"
80%
60%
70%
64%
67%
2005
2006
58%
56%
40%
20%
0%
2003
2004
2007
4
Q#2: Your Employment Outlook for
Coming Year
Cutback #
emp
4%
Remain
same
53%
Year 2007
Expand #
emp
43%
5
Q#2: Your Employment Outlook for
Coming Year 2003-2007
% "Expand # Emp"
52%
34%
34%
44%
43%
2006
2007
37%
28%
17%
0%
2003
2004
2005
6
Q#3: How Likely is Increase in Demand
Your Products/Services in
Coming Year
Very
unlikely
6%
Year 2007
Remain same
75
May or
may not
36%
Very likely
58%
7
% "Very Likely Increase in Demand "
Q#3: How Likely is Increase in Demand
Your Products/Services in
Coming Year 2003-2007
80%
60%
59%
50%
62%
55%
58%
40%
20%
0%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
8
Q#4: How Likely to Add New Products
in Coming Year
Very
unlikely
28%
Year 2007
Remain same
75
Very likely
47%
May or
may not
25%
9
Q#4: How Likely to Add New Products
in Coming Year 2003-2007
% "Very Likely"
60%
54%
52%
45%
47%
38%
40%
20%
0%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
10
Q#5: How Likely to Expand # Outlets in
Coming Year
Very likely
26%
Year 2007
Remain same
75
Very
unlikely
61%
May or
may not
13%
11
Q#5: How Likely to Expand # Outlets in
Coming Year 2003-2007
% "Very Likely"
30%
26%
25%
18%
20%
13%
15%
10%
11%
9%
5%
0%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
12
Q#6: How Likely to Increase Employee
Compensation in Coming Year
Very
unlikely
16%
Year 2007
Remain same
75
May or
may not
30%
Very likely
54%
13
Q#6: How Likely to Increase Employee
Compensation in Coming Year
2003-2007
% "Very Likely"
75%
50%
68%
48%
47%
2003
2004
54%
53%
25%
0%
2005
2006
2007
14
Population Trends
Calhoun County 1998-2005
118.0 117.1
116.5
In 1,000
116.0
114.0
111.3 111.2 111.4
112.0
112.1 112.4 112.1
110.0
108.0
98
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
19
Labor Force Calhoun County
1998-2006
56.0
In 1,000
54.5
54.0
54.3 54.2 54.2
54.0
53.5
53.2
52.0
52.0
51.6
50.0
98
99
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
*Jan-Nov 2006
20
Employment for Calhoun
County 1998-2006
56.0
In 1,000
53.5
52.1
51.2
51.0
50.6
50.5
49.2
51.2
51.7
52.2
48.7
48.5
46.0
98
99
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
21
Unemployment Rate for
Calhoun County 1998-2006
% Unemployed
6%
5.5%
5.7%
5.4%
5.1% 5.1%
5%
5.1%
4.5%
4.5%
4%
3.6%
3%
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
22
Unemployment for Calhoun
County vs Alabama 2006
4.5%
% Unemployed
4.1%
4.0%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
4.2%
4.1%
3.9%
Calhoun
Alabama
3.6% 3.6%
3.6%
3.5%
3.9%
3.4%
3.8%
3.3%
3.3%
3.6%
3.5%
3.3%
3.3% 3.2%
3.2%
3.2%
3.2%
3.2%
3.1%
2.5%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
23
3.3%
Alabama
Unemployment Rates
December 2005
Preliminary State Rate (Seasonally
Adjusted)
State Ave –
3.6%
Unemployment Rate
3.1% and Below
3.2% - 3.8%
3.9% and Above
Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations
25
3.3%
Alabama
Unemployment Rates
December 2006
Preliminary State Rate (Seasonally
Adjusted)
State Ave –
3.6%
Unemployment Rate
3.3% and Below
3.4% - 4.4%
4.5% and Above
Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations
26
Calhoun County Total Employment by
Sector Nov 2006
Other 6%
Education &
Health 10%
Retail &
Wholesale
17%
Manufacture
14%
Government
26%
Services 28%
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
27
Calhoun County vs State of Alabama
Total Employment by Sector Nov 2006
Ed &
Health
10%
Other
6%
Sales
17%
Mfg
14%
Ed &
Health
10%
Other
10%
Sales
16%
Govt
26%
Service
28%
Mfg
15%
Calhoun
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Govt
18%
Service
30%
State
28
Calhoun County Manufacturing
Employment vs All Alabama MSAs
Nov 2006
% Manufacturing
26%
23%
14.6% Avg - - -
22%
19%
18%
14%
14%
16%
15%
13% 13% 13%
12%
12%
10%
8%
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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29
100% Composite Index
Calhoun County Cost of Living
2000-2006
98
96.8
96.2
95.2
96
95.1
94.8
94
91.7
92
90.1
90
88
3Q 00 1Q 01 1Q 02 2Q 02 3Q 04 2Q 05 3Q 06
Source: Accra Survey
31
100% Composite Index
98
Calhoun County Cost of Living
vs Select Alabama Cities
2005
97.4
96.1
96
93.2
94
91.8
92
90.1
90
88
Calhoun
County
Source: Accra Survey
Huntsville Birmingham Montgomery Tuscaloosa
32
Calhoun Housing Statistics
Nov 2005 – Nov 2006
YTD Nov 2005 YTD Nov 2006 % Change
Total Homes
Sold
Total Homes
Listed
Avg Selling
Price
Avg Days on
Market
1,364
1,274
-7.0%
8,748
9,549
+9.0%
$121,096
139
Source: Alabama Real Estate Research & Education Center
$132,592 +9.0%
133
-4%
33
AHA Index Higher is Better
Calhoun County Housing
Affordability Index 3rd Q 2006
190
166.1
160
150.1
140.4
138.1
130
103.0
100
Calhoun
County
Birmingham
Source: Alabama Real Estate Research & Education Center
Auburn
Alabama
U.S.
39
Calhoun County Municipal:
Business Licenses 2005-2006
Business Licenses
issued-Cities
2005
2006
% Change
Anniston
Jacksonville
Oxford
Piedmont
Weaver
3862
2250
2401
969
595
3888
2020
2595
570
565
1.0%
-10.2%
+8.1%
-41.2%
-5.0%
Ohatchee
259
487
+88.0%
Source: Selected Municipalities
40
Retail Sales – State Level
Data
• Alabama Department of Revenue
–November 05-November 06
• (Up 5.20%)
–FYTD 05-06 to 06-07
• (Up 5.67%)
• County Level ?
Source: Alabama Department of Revenue
41
See Appendix
42
Anniston Chemical Agent
Disposal Facility
Since 1st burn on August 9, 2003, have destroyed
• 42,738 GB-filled rockets/warheads (0 remain)
• 16,026 GB-filled 8-inch Projectiles (0 remain)
• 9,060 GB-filled 155 Projectiles (0 remain)
• 68% storage risk eliminated (M55 Rockets)
• 24% stockpile destroyed
• Operations to be completed Sum 2010
Source: Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility
43
Calhoun County vs Select
Metropolitan Statistical Areas
(MSAs)
MSA
Symbol
Calhoun County AL
Decatur IL
Flagstaff AZ
Jackson TN
Jonesboro AR
Morgantown WV
Owensboro KY
Salisbury MD
St. George UT
Victoria TX
CAL
DIL
FAZ
JTN
JAR
MWV
OKY
SMD
SUT
VTX
45
Calhoun County vs Select
Metropolitan Statistical Areas
(MSAs)
46
Calhoun County vs Select MSAs
% Unemployment Rate 2006
Percent
6%
3.8% Average 4.4%
5%
4.2%
4.6%
---
4.3%
4.2%
3.5%
4.1%
4.0%
2.8%
3%
2.0%
2%
CAL
DIL
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
FAZ
JTN
JAR MWV OKY
SMD
SUT
VTX
47
Calhoun County vs Select MSAs
% High School Grad or Higher 2000
90%
90%
89%
88%
Percent
81% Avg
84%
81%
80%
79%
78%
78%
76%
76%
74%
72%
CAL
Source: www.fedstats.gov
DIL
FAZ
JTN
JAR
MWV OKY SMD
SUT
VTX
51
Calhoun County vs Select MSAs
% of Work Force Age 18 – 65 2005
79%
80%
Percent
71%
70%
63% Avg - - -
67%
65%
61%
60%
60%
60% 59%
60%
52%
50%
CAL
Source: www.fedstats.gov
DIL
FAZ
JTN
JAR
MWV OKY
SMD
SUT
VTX
52
Calhoun County vs Select MSAs
% Change in Population 2000 - 2005
5.4% Avg - - -
7%
7%
Percent
5%
32%
6%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
-1%
0%
CAL
DIL
FAZ
JTN
JAR MWV OKY SMD
SUT
VTX
-3%
-5%
-4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
53
Calhoun County vs Select MSAs
Mean Annual Wages
in Thousands 2005
Dollars in Thousands
$35
$34.1
$31 Avg - - -
$33.7
$31.8
$31.6
$30.6
$31.0 $30.9
$31
$30.0
$30.0
$27.9
$27
CAL
DIL
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
FAZ
JTN
JAR MWV OKY SMD
SUT
VTX
54
Calhoun County vs Select MSAs
Average Wage per Hour in $
2005
$17
Dollars per Hour
$16.41
$14.91 Avg - - -
$16.19
$15.30
$15
$14.89 $14.86
$14.74
$14.73
$14.46
$14.13
$13.41
$13
CAL
DIL
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
FAZ
JTN
JAR MWV OKY SMD
SUT
VTX
55
New and Expanding Industries
Calhoun County 2006
Company
American Firewear
Nat App Placement All
Webb Concrete
CMP
Atlantic Tool & Die
Huron Val Steel
NGC Industries
Source: Alabama Development Office
Jobs
50
40
30
20
20
15
15
$ Investment
$200,000
NA
NA
$2,000,000
$1,300,000
$4,000,000
$115,000,000
57
Calhoun County:
Summing it Up
• Membership
Survey-Guarded
• Population- Up
• Employment- Up
• UnemploymentDown
• Cost of LivingDown
• Housing SalesDown
• Business LicensesUp
• Retail Sales-Up
• InfrastructureImproving
• “Building for the
Future”
58
State of Alabama Update
• BLCI Survey
• Demographics
• Economic
Indicators
• Education
• Achievemens
2003
• Other Issues
59
Alabama Business Leaders
Confidence Index
• State Survey – 4th Quarter 2006
• Approximately 300 respondents
• www.blcindex.com
60
Alabama Economic Outlook
Q4 2005 compared to Q3 2005
% of Respondents
60%
Last Year
36.4%
40%
27.1%
29.3%
20%
4.0%
3.1%
0%
Strong
Decrease
Moderate No Change Moderate
Decrease
Increase
Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index
Strong
Increase
61
Alabama Economic Outlook
Q4 2006 compared to Q3 2006
% of Respondents
60%
This Year
42.1%
41.8%
40%
20%
0%
12.3%
3.8%
0.0%
Strong
Decrease
Moderate No Change Moderate
Decrease
Increase
Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index
Strong
Increase
62
Alabama Economic Outlook
Q4 2005 – Q4 2006
% "Next Quarter Better"
65%
61%
59%
60%
55%
59%
54%
54%
50%
Q4 05
Q1 06
Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
63
Alabama Population
2000-2006 in Millions
4.7
4.599
in 1,000,000
4.557
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.385
4.370
4.332 4.349
4.414
4.3
00
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
01
02
03
04
05
06
73
U.S. Migration Patterns
January- December 2005
High Inbound
High Outbound
Balanced
Source: United Van Lines
75
U.S. Migration Patterns
January- December 2006
High Inbound
High Outbound
Balanced
Source: United Van Lines
76
Alabama Housing Statistics
Nov 2005 – Nov 2006
Total Homes
Sold
Avg Selling
Price
Avg Days on
Market
Total Homes
Listed
YTD Nov 2005
YTD Nov 2006
% Change
55,207
54,655
-10%
$147,991 $156,787
+6%
131
122
-7%
280,611
363,949
+30%
Source: Alabama Real Estate Research & Education Center
77
Alabama Per Capita Income vs
U.S. 2001-2006 in $1,000
In $1,000
$38
AL
US
$34
$30.6
$30.8
$36.3
$34.5
$33.0
$31.5
$29.6
$30
$26
$31.3
$27.6
$24.8
$25.3
$26.3
$22
2001
2002
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2003
2004
2005
2006
79
Alabama Per Capita Income vs
U.S. 1964-2006 in $1,000
$36
$33.0
In $1,000
$27.6
$27
AL
US
$18
$34.5
$29.6
$36.3
$31.3
$24.1
$20.1
$17.3
$13.7
$10.1
$7.8
$9
$1.8
$4.7
$2.6 $3.5
$0
1964 1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2005 2006
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
80
Alabama Per Capita Income
Percentage vs U.S. 1964-2006
90%
AL % of US
86%
85%
82%
80%
84%
77%
75%
75%
70%
83%
86%
70%
65%
1964 1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2005 2006
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
81
Alabama Civilian Labor Force
2001-2006 in Millions
2.25
2.22
In Millions
2.20
2.15
2.13
2.15
2.16
2.15
2003
2004
2005
2.09
2.10
2.05
2.00
2001
2002
Source: Alabama Dept of Industrial Relations
2006
82
Alabama Employment
2001-2006 in Millions
2.14
In Millions
2.16
2.08
2.02
2.02
2.04
2.06
1.97
2.00
1.92
1.84
2001
2002
Source: Alabama Dept of Industrial Relations
2003
2004
2005
2006
83
Alabama Unemployment vs U.S.
2002-2006
% Unemployed
6.3%
6.0%
5.9%
5.8% 5.7%
5.7%
AL
5.7%
5.4%
5.1%
US
5.0%
4.5%
4.3%
3.6%
3.7%
3.5%
3.0%
2002
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
2003
2004
2005
2006
84
Alabama Gross State Product
% Change vs U.S. 2000-2005
Change in %
10%
AL
US
8%
6%
8.2%
6.9%
5.9%
4.3%
3.6%
3.3%
3.2%
4%
7.2%
6.5%
5.4%
4.8%
2.3%
2%
0%
2000
2001
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2002
2003
2004
2005
85
Alabama Gross State Product
1978-2005 in $Billions
$180
GSP in $Billions
140 151
$150
$120
80 89
$90
$60
42
36
30
50
56
98
106
114
124
65 71
$30
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 05
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
86
Alabama Gross State Product
% Change 1980-2005
10%
GSP change in %
10.5%
8%
7.5%
8%
8%
7%
7%
6%
5% 5%
6%
5%
4%
4.5%
4%
4%
4%
2%
1.5%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 01 02 03 04 05
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
87
Alabama Total Employment by
Sector 1980 (1,652,621 Jobs)
Other
14%
Education
& Health
6%
Retail &
Wholesale
20%
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mfg
23%
Govt
18%
Services
19%
88
Alabama Total Employment by
Sector Nov 2006
Other 10%
Mfg 15%
Ed &
Health 10%
Govt 18%
Sales 16%
Service
30%
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
89
Alabama Total Employment
by Sector 1980-2006
(+774,731 Jobs, Up 45%)
Ed &
Health
6%
Other
14%
Mfg
23%
Ed &
Health
10%
Other
10%
Mfg
15%
Sales
16%
Sales
20%
Service
19%
Govt
18%
Govt
18%
1980
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Service
30%
2006
90
Manufacturing as Percent of State
Employment
May 2004
1.40% - 4.23%
4.23% - 5.89%
5.90% - 7.23%
7.23% - 9.35%
9.36% - 13.87%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
91
Alabama Gross State Product
from Manufacturing
In $ Billions
$18
1978-2005 in $Billions
$14
$10
Durable Goods
Manufacturing
Non-Durable Goods
Manufacturing
$6
$2
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 05
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
92
Alabama Employment from
Manufacturing
1978-2005 in 1,000s
# Emp in 1,000s
210
180
Durable Goods
Manufacturing
Non-Durable Goods
Manufacturing
150
120
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 05
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
93
Percent of Alabama Workers
Manufacturing 1980-2005
% of Workers
12%
11.0%
9.7%
10.7%
8%
9.4%
Durable Goods
Manufacturing
Non-Durable Goods
Manufacturing
8.3%
7.1%
7.0%
7.3%
5.0%
5.2%
4%
1980
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
1990
2000
2004
2005
94
Percent of Alabama Workers
Motor Vehicle & Equipment
1980-2005
% of Workers
2.1%
1.8%
1.5%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
0.6%
1990
2000
0.4%
0.3%
1980
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2004
2005
95
Alabama Gross State Product/Job
Motor Vehicle & Equipment
1998-2004
150,000
$136,742
GSP $/Job
130,000
$108,749
110,000
$93,489
90,000 $69,193
70,000
$83,158
$97,983
$67,378
50,000
30,000
98
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
99
2000
01
02
03
04
96
Alabama Gross State Product/Job
Durable & Non-Durable Manufacturing
1978-2005
GSP $1,000/Job
100.0
80.0
Durable Goods
Manufacturing
Non-Durable Goods
Manufacturing
60.0
40.0
20.0
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 05
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
97
Alabama vs Southeastern States
(SE) Comparative Data
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
United States
AL
FL
GA
KY
MS
NC
SC
TN
U.S.
99
Alabama vs SE States
% Unemployment Rate Nov 2006
7.5%
8%
6.6%
5.1% Avg - - -
Percent
6%
5.5%
4.6%
4%
5.0%
4.9%
4.5%
3.2% 3.3%
2%
0%
AL
FL
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
GA
KY
MS
NC
SC
TN
U.S.
100
82%
Alabama vs SE States
% High School Graduates or Higher
2000
79.9%
78.6%
Percent
79%
76%
80.4%
76.4% Avg - - 78.1%
76.3% 75.9%
75.3%
74.1%
72.9%
73%
70%
AL
Source: www.fedstats.gov
FL
GA
KY
MS
NC
SC
TN
U.S.
101
Alabama vs SE States
% Population Change 2000 - 2005
11.3%
12%
10.8%
Percent
6.16% Avg - - 7.9%
8%
6.1%
5.3%
4.8%
4%
3.2% 2.7%
2.5%
0%
AL
Source: www.fedstats.gov
FL
GA
KY
MS
NC
SC
TN
U.S.
102
Alabama vs SE States
Percent of Population Age 18 – 65
2005
65%
63% Avg - - -
64.4%
Percent
63.9%
63%
63.0% 63.0% 63.1% 63.0%
63.0%
62.1%
61%
60.3%
59%
AL
Source: www.fedstats.gov
FL GA KY MS NC
SC
TN U.S.
103
Alabama vs SE States
% Federal, State, Local Govt Emp.
2000
20%
Percent
18%
18.9%
14.98 % Avg - - 16.2%
15.8% 15.4%
14.7% 14.8%
15%
13.9%
13%
12.3%
11.8%
10%
AL
Source: www.fedstats.gov
FL
GA
KY
MS
NC
SC
TN
U.S.
104
Alabama vs SE States
% Private Wage and Salary Workers
2000
72%
70.8%
Percent
68.8%
66.7% Avg - - 67.6%
68% 66.7%
67.4%
67.6%
66.2%
63.8%
64%
62.3%
60%
AL
Source: www.fedstats.gov
FL
GA
KY
MS
NC
SC
TN
U.S.
105
Alabama State Summary
• State Revenues - Up
• Outlook SurveyGuarded
• State Population- Up
• Housing Sales- Down
• Alabama Gross State
Product- Up
• Employment- Up
• Personal IncomesUp
• UnemploymentDown
• Labor Force- Up
106
Manufacturing Employment
Percentage (G-7 Countries)
1960-2005
40%
1960
2005
% of Workers
34%
30%
26%
25%
27%
22%
20%
12%
14%
36%
16%
24%
22% 22%
18%
13%
10%
0%
U.S.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Canada
France Germany
Italy
Japan
U.K.
107
Average Manufacturing % Change for
Productivity, Output, and Employment
(G-7 Countries) 1994-2004
Manufacturing Productivity
Output
Employment
7%
5.6%
4.7%
% Change
5%
3.5%
3%
3.7%
3.7%
2.5%
3.3%
2.8%
2.5%
2.2%
1.5%
0.7%
1%
-1%
0.6%
0.5%
U.S.
Canada
France
-1.1%
-3%
-1.9%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Germany
-1.2%
Italy
0.5%
Japan
U.K.
-0.2%
-2.2%
-2.8%
108
Gross Domestic Product per Capita
2004 in $Thousands (G-7 Countries)
$ in Thousands
$45
$40
$40
31.4% Avg - - -
$35
$32
$29.7
$30
$28.5
$28
Germany
Italy
$30
$31.7
$25
$20
U.S.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Canada
France
Japan
U.K.
109
Calhoun County vs Select MSAs –Air
Passenger Enplanements 2005
in Thousands
Passengers (in Thousands)
80
64.6
60
19.8 Avg - - -
49.7
40.2
40
20
11.7
11.1
0.4
2.7
3.1
JTN
JAR
10.9
3.6
0
CAL
DIL
FAZ
Source: Federal Aviation Administration
MWV OKY
SMD
SUT
VTX
111
Calhoun County vs Select MSAs
Distance from Major Air Carrier Airport
160
Distance in Miles
PHX
125
STL
100
120
80
85 miles Avg - - LOU
100
ATL
75
MEM
75 MEM
PIT
60
55
WDC
80
LVG
100
HOU
80
40
0
CAL
DIL
FAZ
Source: Federal Aviation Administration
JTN
JAR
MWV OKY
SMD
SUT
VTX
112
113