Transcript Document

Ocean Wave Power/Energy Economics
A Wave Power Plant
What will it Cost?
Is it a Money Machine?
Roger Bedard/EPRI
September 17, 2009
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
1
What will a wave power plant cost?
• Depends on many factors including
– State of development of the device
– Level of cost estimation
– How much “learning by doing” has taken
– How many you buy at one time
• Please have patience, I will give you a number answer soon
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2
There is a Tendency to Under Estimate during the
Early Stages of Development: Mountain of Death
Lab/Idea
Prototype
Commercial
Cost
Stage of Development
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
3
Volume
Production
In addition to the cost estimate itself, there
is a level of uncertainty
Cost Estimate
Rating
A
Mature
B
Commercial
C
Demonstration
D
Pilot
A. Actual
B. Detailed
C. Preliminary
D. Simplified
E. Goal
0
-5 to +5
-10 to +10
-15 to +15
-
-10 to +10
-15 to +15
-20 to _20
-30 to +70
-15 to +20
-20 to +20
-25 to +30
-30 to +80
-25 to +30
-30 to +30
-30 to +100
Which of course is greater for earlier
stages of development and degree of
sophistication of the estimation process
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
4
E
Conceptual
(Idea or
Lab)
-30 to +50
-30 to +80
-30 to +200
“Learning by Doing”
Price
Progress Ratio
Break-even
Point
Market
Price Learning Investment
Cumulative Production Volume
Wind 40,000 MW – Wave 90 MW Cum Production
Wind
Wave
Low
Best
$/kW Install
706
1,740
2,540
c/kWh O&M
0.9
2.9
4.2
High
3,440
5.4
COE (cents/kWh)
Real
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2.7
5.4
5
9.1
11.4
Example Commercial Wave Power Plant
Preliminary Design,Reedsport Oregon – Pelamis WEC – see EPRI WP-006-OR at
www.epri.com@oceanenergy/
Cluster 2-4
1800m
2225
Installed Cost
26kV / 40MVA
Cluster 1: 45 Devices
G
Unit 2
...Unit 82
G
G
Effluent Pipe 30 inch
5km
Unit 1
Jumper Cable
Existing Grid
Riser Cable
Substation
Sub-sea Junction
Box
O&M Costs
Annual O&M Cost
Labor
Parts
Insurance
Total
10-Yr Refit
Operation Parts
Cons Mgmt and Com
Total
UG COE
$2,322,425
$4,295,752
$4,295,752
$10.913,929
$2,500,000
$1,850,000
$21,104,460
$112,312,800
$44,064,000
$12,000,000
$9,691,340
$17,647,000
$214,791,720
Const Financing
Total Installed Cost
$16,940,702
$231,732,422
Performance
• Rated Power
$9758,321
$13,776,280
$23,534,601
11 (Nom) 9.1 (Real) cents/kWh
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Transmission & Grid II/C
Subsea Cables
Mooring Spread
PCMs
Concrete Sections
Facilities
Installation
Const Mgmt
Total Plant Cost
6
90 MW
•
Annual Absorbed Energy
•
Device Availability
•
Power Conversion Efficiency
•
Busbar Electrical Energy
•
Avg Electrical Power
359,460 MWh
95%
88%
300,420 MWh
34.3 MW
Actual Wind and Projected Wave
Power Plant Learning Curves
Wave Low Bound
Wave Upper Bound
COE (cents/kWh)
100.00
Wind Plant
1982 Cum
Prod Vol of
1000 MW
10.00
Wind
Actual
Wind
COE
History
Wind Plant
1997 Cum
Prod Vol of
10,000 MW
Wind Plant
2003 Cum Prod
Vol of 40,000
MW
Projected
Wave Upper
and Lower
COE
1.00
100
1000
10000
Installed Capacity (MW)
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
7
100000
Comparison with Other Alternatives
Capacity
Factor (%)
Capital Cost [1]
($/MW)
COE[2]
(cents/ kWh)
CO2
(lbs per MWh)
Wave (Oregon – 1st 100 MW
10,000 – 10,100 MW plant
38
38
3-5
0.8 – 1.3
15 - 25
4.2 – 6
None
None
Wind (class 3- 6)
30 - 42
1.2 – 1.6
4.7 - 6.5
None
Solar Thermal Trough
33
3.3
18
None
Coal PC USC)
80
1.3
4.2
1,760
NGCC @ $5/MM BTU
80
0.5
4.8
860
NGCC @ $7/MM BTU
80
0.5
6.4
860
IGCC with CO2 Capture
80
1.9
6.1
344
All costs in 2005 Constant US$ with 2005 without financial Incentives
GE 7 F machine or equivalent
600 MW PC Plant, Pittsburgh #8 Coal
IGCC with 80% removal
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
8
Summary – What you have been waiting for
• Installed Cost
– ~$8-10/MW
– 2009$
– Small order (1 to 5
MW)
– No production
base
• Installed Cost
– ~$3-5M/MW
– 2009$
– 1st 100 MW plant)
• Installed cost will be
reduced by 18% for
every doubling of
production volume
© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
•
Cost of electricity depends on ownership model
as well as many other assumptions
•
Danger – Beware of Cost Estimates and Cost of
Electricity Estimates
– Must know all the assumptions behind any
estimate
– If not provided, estimate is meaningless
•
Estimating costs is not for the faint of heart
– It is complicated
– It is detailed
– It is hard
•
You can get just about any answer depending on
the assumptions that you choose
•
When using cost estimates, proceed with caution
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