Transcript Presentation title

Joint Strategic Needs
Assessment
2011-12
Allerdale Locality Stakeholder
Panel Monday 7th November
Content
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Introduction to the JSNA
Background & context
Demand on health and social care system
Long-term conditions
Mental health & well-being
Living conditions & health inequalities
Lifestyle & behaviours
Summary
Welcome
• Welcome to the JSNA locality stakeholder panel
• Purpose – to begin the process of developing an
enhanced JSNA for Cumbria
• This is the responsibility of the Health and Wellbeing
Board
• Plan to have this in place by April 2012
• Feeds in to the Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategy
(June 2012)
What is a JSNA?
• Describes health and wellbeing in Cumbria
• Describes strategic direction of services
• Based on wide range of current information
and evidence
• JSNA products, county and locality
narratives, online information
Who is involved?
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Cumbria County Council
NHS Cumbria
Cumbria Intelligence Observatory
District Councils
Third Sector
LINKs
Probation, police and other partners
Why do we need a JSNA?
• Current JSNA needs to be updated
• Important role in the Health and Social Care Bill
• HWWB role in Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategy
and JSNA
• JSNA supports the Joint Health and Wellbeing
Strategy (JHWBS)
• Commissioning Plans 2013 need to take account of
JHWBS
What are the challenges?
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Ageing Population
Mental health and alcohol issues
Health of children and young people
Health inequalities
What do we want from you?
• Your ideas and feedback on the information
presented
• Views on local needs and priorities
• Information on local strengths and assets
• Help to develop a local narrative for JSNA
Overall Deprivation Score
Source: Indices of Deprivation 2010
Health Deprivation Score
Source: Indices of Deprivation 2010
Life Expectancy
Life Expectancy
Source: Office for National Statistics
Healthy Life Expectancy
Rurality
England
Cumbria
Urban > 10K - Less Sparse
Urban > 10K - Sparse
Tow n and Fringe - Less Sparse
Tow n and Fringe - Sparse
Source: Office for National
Statistics, 2010
Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dw ellings - Less Sparse
Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dw ellings - Sparse
Allerdale
Rurality Aged 65+
England
Cumbria
Urban > 10K - Less Sparse
Urban > 10K - Sparse
Tow n and Fringe - Less Sparse
Tow n and Fringe - Sparse
Source: Office for National
Statistics, 2010
Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dw ellings - Less Sparse
Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dw ellings - Sparse
Allerdale
Barriers to Services & Housing
Source: Indices of Deprivation, 2010
Allerdale Population
0-14
120
15-64
65+
“Known”
Forecasted
Population (000s)
100
80
60
40
20
0
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
Source: Office for National Statistics
2001
2005
2009
Year
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029
2033
Median Household Income (£)
Source: CACI Paycheck, 2011
People and Communities
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
Since 2001 population totals stabilised and
employment has grown
The long term population trend over the
past 20 years has been marked by decline
The nuclear industry has generated growth
in employment since 2001
The area is now very dependent on
Sellafield for well-paid employment
JSA claimant unemployment rates are
currently below the national average
Levels of deprivation are high in some local
areas
Educational attainment is comparable with
the average for Cumbria
There are very low levels of attainment in
deprived communities
The proportion of residents with high level
qualifications is low
Business and Enterprise
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
West Cumbria derived considerable
economic benefit from the nuclear industry
The level of dependence on the nuclear
sector has increased over time
Since 2003, there has been employment
increase in hotels and restaurants
Employment in retail and wholesale
activities has fallen
Employment in public services has
remained fairly stable up to 2008
Public service jobs which account for 23%
of the total are vulnerable
Business survival rates have been above
average in the past three years
The rate of new firm formation has been
relatively low
The 2009 floods created difficulties for
many businesses in West Cumbria
Infrastructure & Environment
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
West Cumbria has many attractive urban
settlements including harbour towns
A significant amount of the existing housing
stock is of low quality
There are rural areas with highly distinctive
landscapes and settlements
Access to some of the rural areas for
visitors and residents alike is poor
There have been recent improvements to
the A595 and links to the M6 northwards
may be improved by the Northern Relief
Road at Carlisle
West Cumbrian towns experience
disadvantage in attracting investment due
to remoteness and poor transport links
West Cumbria has a considerable amount
of available commercial and industrial land
There are high quality sites available but
an oversupply of poor quality units
Community Safety
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Levels of crime are falling (5% since last year)
Yet the rate of crime is higher than the County average
Businesses crime, domestic violence & KSIs are rising
4th highest rate of under 18’s admitted into hospital with alcohol
specific conditions in England
• The typical offender in Allerdale likely to be aged 18-30 years
and male
• Crime and disorder is most prevalent in deprived areas
• Also high number of incidents in certain forms of crime within
popular tourist centres especially Keswick
Housing
• The mean average house price in Allerdale is
£156,112, compared to £167,455 for Cumbria
• The mean housing affordability ratio for the
district is 5, below the county average of 5.2
• 25.5% of households in Allerdale are fuel
poor, above the county average of 24.1%
Demand on the Health and
Social Care System
Demand on the health system in Allerdale is slightly less
than the County average in the following areas:
Per 1000 the population
Health Demand
Actual
Allerdale
Cumbria
Allerdale
Calls to Cumbria Health on Call
22,355
226
250
Less calls than
Cumbria
Admissions to hospital
10,913
110
115
Less admissions
than Cumbria
Calls to the Ambulance Service
9,780
99
108
Less calls than
Cumbria
Demand on the health and
Social Care System
Adults
• 3,161 adult social care service users accessing
10,972 services
• 1,947 new referrals to adult social care services, with
945 resulting in a full assessment
Children
• 115 looked after children
• 182 core assessments completed
Demand on the Health and Social Care System
Adult Social Care
Allerdale service users and services
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
no of service users
Learning Disabailities
Mental health
Physical Disabilities
Other
Number of Services
• 76% (2,399) of the adult service users are aged 65 and over
• Over 1,100 safeguarding alerts come into adult social care every year
Demand on the Health and Social Care System
Housing need (Adults)
Service Users
Take-up of long-term residential care places for the LA-supported population,
assuming projected falls in take-up of residential care
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Need for increase in alternative provision
(other than long-term residential care)
Future take-up of LA-funded long-term
residential care places (based on service
trends)
Total need for support currently met by LAfunded residential care
2009
Source: Planning 4 Care
2014
2019
2029
Demand on the Health and Social Care System
– Learning Disabilities
Allerdale
Barrow -in-Furness
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
South Lakeland
12,000
10,000
2,002
2,048
2,094
2,132
1,958
994
1,015
1,031
1,049
972
6,000
1,316
1,348
1,374
1,398
1,420
4,000
2,029
2,098
2,156
2,208
2,276
1,306
1,319
1,322
1,325
1,335
1,762
1,790
1,807
1,834
1,862
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Number
8,000
2,000
0
2010-30 People aged 18 and over predicted to have a learning disability (Source: PANSI
and POPPI based on Emerson and Hatton)
Demand on the Health and Social Care System
– Dementia
Allerdale
Barrow-in-Furness
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
South Lakeland
14,000
12,000
3,337
10,000
2,814
Number
1,506
2,371
8,000
1,269
2,076
6,000
1,058
1,823
893
739
4,000
859
1,395
2,000
1,388
1,140
989
1,628
2,430
2,074
1,804
1,582
1,300
1,517
1,129
923
989
1,506
1,740
2,107
2,396
1,336
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
0
Figure 14: 2010-2030 The number of people aged over 65 years predicted
to have dementia (Source: POPPI)
Long-term Conditions, Chronic Illness and Disabilities
Years of life lost from Cancer
Cumbria
North West
England
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
South
Lakeland
Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2007-2009
Long-term Conditions, Chronic Illness and Disabilities
Years of life lost from Circulatory Disease
Cumbria
North West
England
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2007-2009
South
Lakeland
Long-term Conditions, Chronic Illness and Disabilities
% of working age population with a disability
Cumbria
North West
England
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2011
Copeland
Eden
South
Lakeland
Long-term Conditions, Chronic Illness and Disabilities
% of children (0-16years) entitled to Disability Living Allowance
Cumbria
North West
England
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Allerdale
Barrow
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2011
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
South
Lakeland
Mental Health and Well Being
% happy or very happy with life
Cumbria
North West
England
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden
Source: Quality of Life Survey, 2006
South
Lakeland
Mental Health and Well Being
% satisfied with local area
Cumbria
North West
England
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden
Source: Place Survey Tracker 2009
South
Lakeland
Mental Health and Well Being
Estimated neurotic disorder per 1000
Cumbria
North West
England
250
200
150
100
50
0
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden
Source: North East Public Health Observatory, 2008
South
Lakeland
Mental Health and Well Being
Admissions for deliberate self harm per 100,000
Cumbria
North West
England
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2009-10
South
Lakeland
Mental Health and Well Being
Years of life lost from suicide
Rate
Cumbria
North West
England
40
30
20
10
0
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden
Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2009-10
South
Lakeland
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
Infant mortality per 1000 births
Rate
Cumbria
North West
England
Carlisle Copeland
Eden
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Allerdale Barrow
Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2009
South
Lakeland
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
% born with low birth weight (<2.5kg)
Cumbria
North West
England
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Allerdale Barrow
Carlisle Copeland
Eden
Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2009
South
Lakeland
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
Teenage pregnancy rate
Rate per 1000
Cumbria
North West
England
60
40
20
0
Allerdale Barrow CarlisleCopeland Eden
Source: Office for National Statistics, 2007-2009
South
Lakeland
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
% children living in poverty
Cumbria
North West
England
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Allerdale Barrow
Source: HMRC, 2009
Carlisle Copeland
Eden
South
Lakeland
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
Claimant to vacancy ratio
Rate
Cumbria
Great Britain
England
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden
Source: Office for National Statistics, 2011
South
Lakeland
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
% working age adults with level 4 or greater education
Cumbria
North West
England
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Allerdale Barrow
Carlisle Copeland
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2010
Eden
South
Lakeland
Living conditions and Health Inequalities
% working age adults with disabilities in employment
Cumbria
North West
England
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2010
South
Lakeland
Living conditions and Health Inequalities
Excess winter deaths
Cumbria
North West
England
30
20
%
10
0
Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2006-2009
South
Lakeland
Living Conditions and Health Inequalities
% of people who agree they can influence decisions in their area
Cumbria
North West
England
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Allerdale Barrow
Source: Place Survey Tracker, 2009
Carlisle Copeland
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Estimated smoking prevalence
Cumbria
North West
England
35
30
25
20
%
15
10
5
0
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2009-2010
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Smoking during pregnancy per 100 maternities
Cumbria
North West
England
20
15
10
5
0
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle Copeland
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2009-2010
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Hospital admissions due to alcohol
Cumbria
North West
England
Rate per 100,000
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Source: Local Alcohol Profiles for England, 2009-2010
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
% reporting drunk and rowdy behaviour as a problem
Cumbria
North West
England
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Allerdale
Barrow
Source: Place Survey, 2008
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Estimated prevalence of drug misuse (crack and opiates) per 1,000
people
Cumbria
North West
England
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2008-2009
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
% of people engaging in moderate intensity sport and recreation
Cumbria
North West
England
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2009-2010
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
Healthy eating among adults
Cumbria
North West
England
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2006-2008
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
% of children participating in PE
Cumbria
North West
England
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2009-2010
Eden
South
Lakeland
Lifestyle and Behaviours
% of year six children obese
Cumbria
North West
England
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Allerdale
Barrow
Carlisle
Copeland
Source: National Child Measurement Programme, 2009-2010
Eden
South
Lakeland