Conservation/CBNRM Financial Model
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Transcript Conservation/CBNRM Financial Model
Richard W. Diggle
NACSO Members Meeting
Date: 4th March 2009
Establish a financial plan for NACSO to
support the conservancy programme.
Help determine the funding strategy, i.e. what
funding / income should cover what purpose.
Identify the gaps in financing, i.e how much
and for what purpose.
Provide a logic to motivate for external
funding, particularly for a Trust Fund
A financial plan (model) is a long-term estimate
of all costs and income, usually over 5 to 10
years.
Identifies the costs, revenue and funding gaps,
which helps determine and motivate a clear
income target.
Can also be a useful management tool in
prioritizing scarce resources and tracking
progress and assumptions.
Model is built on estimates and extrapolations
and are general by nature; it is not a budget.
Identify clear objectives of the financial plan.
Confirm geographic or thematic scope
i.e. communal conservancies throughout Namibia
Consider long term strategies and priorities ,
i.e. provision of long term funding strategy
i.e build on the CBNRM Sustainable Workshop
Identify the owner and users of the model.
i.e NACSO and members in tandem with MET
Conservancies
NACSO members
National / Regional Level
MET
Private Sector
Costs
Income
i.e. Lodge, Hunting, Campsites, Other.
Grants
i.e. Salaries, Operational, Capital
i.e. Sink, Revolving, Endowerment
Others
i.e. MET, In Kind, PES, Other
Potential of Conservancies,
Status of Conservancies
i.e. emerging, developing and maintaining.
Investment levels
i.e. fast, medium and conservation
i.e. average, piloting (cutting edge/ buy-in) and
opportunity.
Support approaches
i.e. high or low level field based support
i.e. National , Regional / Cluster, per Conservancy
Both Unit and
Annual Estimate Based
Cost Category (orange)
&
Activity/Budget Line Item (green)
CONSERVANCY COSTS (cost per 1 conservancy)
Staff Costs
Committee Members
CGGs
Staff
Operating Costs
Stationary
Meetings
Travel
Office Costs
Field Costs
Capital Expenditures
FIELD-BASED
NGOs COSTS
Office
NRM
Vehicle
Staff
Equipment
Meetings
Campsite
VRC
Training
Institutional (IS)
Business Development
Other
Capital Expenditures (Regional)
REGIONAL COSTS
Complex at Regional Levels
Regional Conservancy Associations
NATIONAL COSTS (annual cost)
Working Groups
NRM
Instititional (IS)
Business Development
Policy
Associations
NASCO
NACOBTA
Conservancies
MET (Ministry of the Environment & Tourism)
CBNRM Project
CSD (Conservancy Support Division)
Emerging
Estimated
Annual
Activity Cost
10,000
Unit
Name
Development
Unit cost
Estimated
Annual
Activity Cost
Unit
Name
Maintenance
Unit cost
20,000
Estimated
Annual
Activity Cost
Unit cost
30,000
# of CGG
600
# of CGG
50,000
2,000
1,000,000
200,000
500,000
100,000
Unit
Name
30,000
20,000
20,000
30,000
30,000
30,000
30,000
30,000
100,000
40,000
1,000,000
30,000
300,000
150,000
500,000
100,000
100,000
40,000
500,000
30,000
150,000
150,000
250,000
50,000
600
1
Both Unit and
Annual Estimate Based
Both Unit and
Annual Estimate
Based
Both Unit and
Annual Estimate
Based
Projection Based on Total Annual
Estimated Cost of each Activity
Projection Both Unit and
Based on
Annual
Units
Estimate Based
Projection Based on
Units of Activity per Year
1
Activity
Cost Category (orange)
Estimated
Unit Cost
Both Unit and
Total 10-Year
Percent of Total
Cost
Unit
Year One
&
Annual
Start Year
Growth
Unit cost
Year One Cost
Both Unit and
Both Unit and
Projectio
Cost
10-Year Cost
Growth
Name Based on
Units
Both Unit and
Projection Based on Total
Annual
Projection
Annual
1
Activity/Budget Line Item (green)
Rate
Annual Estimate Annual Estimate Activity Cost
n Based
Rate
Annual Estimate Based
Estimated Cost of each
Activity
Units of Activity per Year
Estimate
Based
Based
on Units
CONSERVANCY COSTS (cost per 1
Both Unit and
Both Unit and
Projection
Both Unit and
Based
Projection Based on Total Annual
Projection Based on
Both Unit and
Annual Estimate1% Annual Estimate
Based on
conservancy)
126,314
12,000 Annual
Activity
Estimated Cost of each Activity Unit Cost Units of Activity per Year
Annual (orange)
Estimate Based
Cost
Category
Estimated
Based Percent
Based
Estimate Based
Staff Costs
0% of Total
-Unit
Total100,000
10-Year
Cost
Unit
Year One Units 10,000
&
Annual
Start Year
Growth
Year One
Cost
Operating Costs
26,314
0%
0
-cost
2,000
Cost
10-Year
Cost
Growth
Name
Units
Activity
Activity/Budget
Line
Item
(green)
Activity
Cost
Rate
Unit
Cost
Capital ExpendituresCost Category (orange)
0
0%
0 Estimated
0
Rate Cost
Total 10-Year
Percent of Total 10Unit
Year One
&
Start Year
Growth Unit cost
Year One Cost
FIELD-BASED
NGOs COSTS
23,682,217
99%
0 Annual
1,800,000
CONSERVANCY
COSTS (cost
per 1
Cost
Year Cost
Growth
NameUnits
Activity/Budget Line Item (green) 23,682,217
Rate
NRM conservancy)
99%38%
0Activity
1,800,000
7,788,818
- Cost
592,000
Rate
Institutional
(IS)CONSERVANCY COSTS (cost per 1
0
0% 10%
0
0
Staff Costs
1,999,832
152,000
Business
Development
0 6,736,2750% 8% 21%
0
- - 0
Operating
Costs
512,000
1,578,814
0
120,000
conservancy)
OtherCapital Expenditures
0 1,210,4240% 21% 4%
0
- - 0
Staff Costs
92,000
4,210,172
0
320,000
Capital
Expenditures
(Regional)
0 263,136
0% 62% 1%
0
- - 0
1
20,000
Committee
Members
5%
5%
FIELD-BASED
NGOs
COSTS
12,498,948
0 20,000
950,000
REGIONAL
0 947,289
0% 62% 3%
0
- # of- CGG
0
0
12950,000
72,000
CGGs
5%
5%
NRM COSTS
12,498,948
0
- 6,000
NATIONAL
COSTS
(annual cost)
0 0
0% 0%
0
- - 0 0
0
0
0%
0
Staff
5%
5%
Institutional
(IS)
0
Working
Groups
0 1,315,679
0% 0%
0
- - 0 0 100,000
Operating
Costs
4%
0
Business
Development
0
0
Associations
0
0
0%
0
Stationary
5%
5%
0 0
0% 0%
0
- - 0 0
Other
0
30,000
1
1%
Meetings
5%
5%
MET Capital
(Ministry
of
the Environment
& Tourism)
0 394,704
0% 0%
0
- - 0 0 30,000
Expenditures
(Regional)
0
0
20,000
1
1%
Travel
5%
5%
In-Kind
Costs (annual)--balance
with revenue
0 263,136
0% 0%
0
- - 0 0 20,000
REGIONAL
COSTS
0
0
Office Costs
263,136
0
394,704
0
4,210,172
0
1,315,679
0
526,271
0
394,704
1,973,518
Campsite
FIELD-BASED NGOs COSTS
24,997,896
NRM
24,997,896
13,156,787
Staff
3,947,036
Meetings
6,578,394
VRC
1,315,679
Training
Institutional (IS)
0
Business Development
0
Other
0
Capital Expenditures (Regional)
0
REGIONAL COSTS
0
NATIONAL COSTS (annual cost)
0
Working Groups
0
Associations
0
MET (Ministry of the Environment & Tourism)
0
In-Kind Costs (annual)--balance with revenue
0
NATIONAL COSTS (annual cost)
Field Costs
Working Capital
GroupsExpenditures
Associations
Office
MET (Ministry
of the Environment & Tourism)
Vehicle
In-Kind Costs
(annual)--balance with revenue
Equipment
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
1%
13%
4%
2%
1%
6%
79%
79%
41%
12%
21%
4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
20,000
0 30,000
0
0
0100,000
0 40,000
0 30,000
150,000
0
0
1,000,000
300,000
500,000
100,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
5%
5%
5%
5%
1
1
1
1
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
1
1
1
1
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
-
-
-
-
20,000
0 30,000
0 320,000
0 100,000
0 40,000
0 30,000
150,000
1,900,000
1,900,000
1,000,000
300,000
500,000
100,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Both Unit and
Annual Estimate Based
Both Unit and
Annual Estimate
Based
Both Unit and
Annual Estimate
Based
Cost Category (orange)
&
Activity/Budget Line Item (green)
Total 10-Year
Cost
Percent of Total 10Year Cost
CONSERVANCY COSTS (cost per 1
conservancy)
Staff Costs
Committee Members
CGGs
Staff
Operating Costs
Stationary
Meetings
Travel
Office Costs
Field Costs
Capital Expenditures
Office
Vehicle
Equipment
Campsite
JV Equity
FIELD-BASED NGOs COSTS
REGIONAL COSTS
NATIONAL COSTS (annual cost)
6,736,275
1,210,424
263,136
947,289
0
1,315,679
0
394,704
263,136
263,136
394,704
4,210,172
1,315,679
526,271
394,704
1,973,518
0
24,997,896
0
0
Year One
Units
CONSERVANCY COSTS (cost per 1
conservancy)
Staff Costs
Committee Members
CGGs
Staff
Operating Costs
Stationary
Meetings
Travel
Office Costs
Field Costs
12
Year One Cost
512,000
92,000
20,000
72,000
0
100,000
0
30,000
20,000
20,000
30,000
21%
4%
1%
3%
0%
4%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
13%
4%
2%
1%
6%
0%
79%
0%
0%
Projection Based on Total Annual
Estimated Cost of each Activity
Estimated
Annual
Start Year
Activity Cost
20,000
0
0
0
0
30,000
20,000
20,000
30,000
0
100,000
40,000
30,000
150,000
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Year Two
Year Three
Year Two Cost
Units
Units
12
564,480
101,430
22,050
79,380
0
110,250
0
33,075
22,050
22,050
33,075
12
Activity
Cost
Growth
Rate
Projection Based on
Units of Activity per Year
Unit Cost
Growth
Rate
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
Year Three
Cost
592,704
106,502
23,153
83,349
0
115,763
0
34,729
23,153
23,153
34,729
Year Four
Units
12
Unit
Name
Unit cost
# of CGG
-
Year Four
Cost
622,339
111,827
24,310
87,516
0
121,551
0
36,465
24,310
24,310
36,465
6,000
-
Numbers of Each
Conservancy Type
Start Year
2010
1
3
Fast track / Emerging
Fast track / Development
6
Fast track / Maintenance
0
Med track / Emerging
2
Med track / Development
0
Med track / Maintenance
0
Cons. track / Emerging
1
0
Cons. track / Development
0
Cons. track / Maintenance
TOTAL Conservancies
12
Cost Variance
Fast Track
Medium Track
Conservation Track
TOTAL COSTS for 9
Conservancy Types
2011
2012
2
3
7
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
13
2013
3
2
7
1
0
2
0
0
1
0
13
2014
4
2
8
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
14
2015
5
1
9
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
15
2016
6
0
9
3
0
0
2
0
0
1
15
2017
7
0
8
4
0
0
2
0
0
1
15
2018
2019
8
0
7
5
0
0
2
0
0
1
15
9
0
4
8
0
0
2
0
0
1
15
2018
2019
10
0
0
12
0
0
2
0
0
1
15
200%
150%
100%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Fast track / Emerging
Fast track / Development
1
10872000
57888000
2
11980230
74458440
Fast track / Maintenance
Med track / Emerging
0
10872000
0
5990115
7140231 7497242.6
0
0
Med track / Development
Med track / Maintenance
0
0
7977690
0
16753149 8795403.2
0 5622931.9
Cons. track / Emerging
Cons. track / Development
3612000
0
0
5318460
Cons. track / Maintenance
NATIONAL COSTS
0
0
0
0
2015
3
4
5
8384161 8801369.1 4619718.8
78181362 93817634 110822081
2016
2017
10 TOTAL by
Type
0 44657479
0 753955359
6
7
0
0
70531914 108605639
8
0
99781431
9
0
59868859
17158585
0
34715982
0
45564726
0
76548739 120564265 324933979
0
0 16862115
0
0
11808157 8579292.3
0
13018493
0
13669418
0
14352889
0 33526242
15070533 82121714
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 3612000
0 10902843
0 3748621.3 3936052.3 2859764.1 4339497.7 4556472.6 4784296.2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5023511 29248215
0
0
0
5584383
0
0
15744209
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL for ALL
CONSERVANCIES
CONSERVANCY COSTS
(cost per 1 conservancy)
FIELD-BASED NGOs
COSTS
REGIONAL COSTS
NATIONAL COSTS (annual
cost)
TOTAL COSTS
10-year costs
3-year total costs
5-year total costs
TOTAL for
CONSERVANCIES by
TYPE
Fast track
# of type
Medium track
# of type
Conservancy track
# of type
Emerging
# of type
Development
# of type
Maintenance
# of type
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
6264000
9405457.5 12088561
14178769
17831785
20283688
21523008
22835551
24721966
27000557
40800000
49447125
50125163
54363517
57943183
58562179
58816798
58950472
53055425
43328597
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
62213724
68542286
75774968
78845867
80339806
81786024
77777391
70329154
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
47064000 58852583
701525802
168130306
312447560
2010
68760000
9
10872000
2
3612000
1
25356000
6
57888000
6
0
0
2011
2012
2013
86438670 93705754 110116246
10
10
11
13967805 16753149 14418335
2
2
2
5318460
5584383 3748621.3
1
1
1
17970345 8384161 8801369.1
4
2
2
87754590 100518894 102613038
9
10
9
0
7140231 16868796
0
1
3
131186009
12
11808157
2
3936052.3
1
4619718.8
1
110822081
9
31488419
5
87690498 143321621 145346157 136417598 120564265
12
12
12
12
12
8579292.3 13018493 13669418 14352889 15070533
2
2
2
2
2
2859764.1 4339497.7 4556472.6 4784296.2 5023511
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
70531914 108605639 99781431 59868859
0
9
8
7
4
0
28597641 52073972 63790616 95685924 140658309
6
7
8
11
15
Revenue Category (orange) &
Source/Line item (green)
Conservancy Generated Income
(annual totals pulled from CBO
Revenue Sheet)
Lodges
Hunting
Other
Grants, GAA Funds & Private
Donations
Donar A
Donar B
Donar C
In-kind (must be balanced by
equivalent expense)
Revenue Generation Mechanisms
Other
10-Year Total
Total
73,214,964
10-Year Total
Percent of Total
10-Year Revenue
51,714,964
18,494,017
28,834,513
4,386,435
0
71%
25%
39%
6%
0%
21,500,000
4,000,000
1,500,000
16,000,000
0
29%
5%
2%
22%
0%
0
0
0
0%
0%
0%
Year One
4,660,000
Year Two
5,700,000
Single Year
Estimate
2,000,000
500,000
2,000,000
Start
Year
3
Year Three
6,280,000
Growth
Rate
0%
0%
0%
5%
Year One
Year Two
Year Three
Year Four
2,160,000
360,000
1,800,000
0
0
3,200,000
800,000
2,100,000
300,000
0
3,780,000
1,200,000
2,205,000
375,000
0
4,823,600
1,850,000
2,546,775
426,825
0
2,500,000
2,000,000
500,000
0
0
2,500,000
2,000,000
500,000
0
0
2,500,000
500,000
2,000,000
0
2,000,000
0
2,000,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Year Four
6,823,600
Year Five
7,550,110
Year Six
7,827,616
Conservancy Generated Income
Revenue Category (orange) &
Source/Line item (green)
Lodges
Hunting
Other
Lodges
Hunting
Other
Fast track
Medium track
Conservation track
Lodges
Hunting
Other
-
-
1
10-Year Total
Percent of Total
10-Year Revenue
4,307,677
1,461,301
2,515,579
330,797
0
1,100,674
814,201
0
286,473
0
340,096
0
340,096
0
0
8%
3%
5%
1%
0%
2%
2%
0%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%
0%
0%
LINKED TO COST SUMMARY
ONLY DEV. & MAINT. COUNTED
Fast track
Med track
Cons. track
2010
9
2
1
TOTAL Conservancy Generated
Income
Lodges
Hunting
Other
-
Single Year
Estimate
2011
1
10
2
1
2,160,000
360,000
1,800,000
0
0
Start Year
200,000
30,000
1
2
100,000
4
30,000
3
50,000
5
2012
2
10
2
1
Growth
Rate
Year One
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
2013
3
3,200,000
800,000
2,100,000
300,000
0
11
2
1
Year Two
240,000
40,000
200,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5%
5%
5%
5%
320,000
80,000
210,000
30,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2014
4
3,780,000
1,200,000
2,205,000
375,000
0
12
2
1
2
3
Year Three
12
2
1
4,823,600
1,850,000
2,546,775
426,825
0
Year Four
372,000
120,000
220,500
31,500
0
30,000
0
0
30,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
2015
5
4
414,600
150,000
231,525
33,075
0
131,500
100,000
0
31,500
0
0
0
0
0
0
2016
6
12
2
1
5,550,110
2,100,000
2,967,215
482,895
0
5
Year Five
435,330
157,500
243,101
34,729
0
138,075
105,000
0
33,075
0
50,000
0
50,000
0
0
2017
7
12
2
1
5,827,616
2,205,000
3,115,576
507,040
0
8
TOTAL Conservancy Generated
Income
Lodges
Hunting
Other
-
Total Conservancy Costs by
Type (from Cost Summary)
Fast track
Medium track
Conservation track
Conservancy Revenue Gap
Fast track
Medium track
Conservation track
To convert the above three charts into
another currency, enter the currency
name and the exchange rate to the
right. CHANGE BACK to an
exchange rate of 1.00 for Namibian
Dollars before viewing Gaps
2,160,000
360,000
1,800,000
0
0
3,200,000
800,000
2,100,000
300,000
0
1
68,760,000
10,872,000
3,612,000
68,520,000
10,872,000
3,612,000
3,780,000
1,200,000
2,205,000
375,000
0
2
86,438,670
13,967,805
5,318,460
Currency
Namibian Dollars
Exchange
Rate
1.00
3
93,705,754
16,753,149
5,584,383
86,118,670
13,967,805
5,318,460
4,823,600
1,850,000
2,546,775
426,825
0
5,550,110
2,100,000
2,967,215
482,895
0
4
5
110,116,246 131,186,009
14,418,335 11,808,157
3,748,621
3,936,052
93,333,754
16,723,149
5,584,383
Cost Sensitivity
Scenario One
Scenario Two
Scenario Three
109,701,646 130,750,679
14,286,835 11,670,082
3,748,621
3,886,052
5,827,616
2,205,000
3,115,576
507,040
0
6
87,690,498
8,579,292
2,859,764
87,233,402
8,434,314
2,807,264
Sensitivity Rates
2%
5%
10%
Cost Category
Total 10-Year Cost
CONSERVANCY COSTS (cost per 1 conservancy)
176,133,343
Staff Costs
38,506,717
Operating Costs
35,033,125
Capital Expenditures
102,593,501
FIELD-BASED NGOs COSTS
525,392,459
REGIONAL COSTS
0
NATIONAL COSTS (annual cost)
0
MET (Ministry of the Environment & Tourism)
0
In-Kind Costs (annual)--balance with revenue
0
Year
One
Cost
6,264,000
1,204,000
1,220,000
3,840,000
40,800,000
0
0
0
0
Revenue Category (orange) &Source/Line
10-Year item
Total(green)
Year One
Conservancy Generated
Income
51,714,964
2,160,000
Grants, GAA Funds & Private Donations21,500,000
2,500,000
In-kind (must be balanced by equivalent expense)0
0
Revenue Generation Mechanisms
0
0
Year
Year Three
Two
Cost
Cost
9,405,458
12,088,561
1,748,595
2,308,945
1,835,663
2,370,816
5,821,200
7,408,800
49,447,125
50,125,163
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Year Two
Year Three
3,200,000
2,500,000
0
0
3,780,000
2,500,000
0
0
Year
Four
Cost
14,178,769
2,828,371
2,793,233
8,557,164
54,363,517
0
0
0
0
Year
Five
Cost
17,831,785
3,685,481
3,527,642
10,618,663
57,943,183
0
0
0
0
Year Four
Year Five
4,823,600
2,000,000
0
0
5,550,110
2,000,000
0
0
Gaps - No Inflation or Sensitivity
Cost
Revenue
Gap
3-year total gap
5-year total gap
10-Year Total
Year One
Year Two
1,344,489,425 94,128,000 117,705,165
73,214,964
4,660,000
5,700,000
1,271,274,461 89,468,000 112,005,165
319,620,612
593,881,410
Year Three
Year Four
124,427,447 137,084,571
6,280,000
6,823,600
118,147,447 130,260,971
Year Five
151,549,937
7,550,110
143,999,827
Currency Used in Model
Currency Exchange Rate
Namibian Dollars
1
Cost Sensitivity
Scenario One
Scenario Two
Scenario Three
Sensitivity Rates
2%
5%
10%
Revenue Sensitivity
Scenario One
Scenario Two
Scenario Three
Sensitivity Rates
Scenario One
Cost
Revenue
Gap
3-year total gap
5-year total gap
10-Year Total
Year One
Year Two
1,371,379,214 96,010,560 120,059,268
73,214,964
4,660,000
5,700,000
1,298,164,249 91,350,560 114,359,268
326,345,824
606,379,313
Year Three
Year Four
126,915,996 139,826,263
6,280,000
6,823,600
120,635,996 133,002,663
Year Five
154,580,936
7,550,110
147,030,826
10-Year Total
Year One
Year Two
1,411,713,897 98,834,400 123,590,423
73,214,964
4,660,000
5,700,000
1,338,498,932 94,174,400 117,890,423
336,433,643
625,126,166
Year Three
Year Four
130,648,819 143,938,800
6,280,000
6,823,600
124,368,819 137,115,200
Year Five
159,127,434
7,550,110
151,577,324
Scenario Two
Cost
Revenue
Gap
3-year total gap
5-year total gap
Applicability
Scale of Use
i.e. type of data, level of complexity
i.e. per partner, per region, national level
Integration
i.e. CBNRM Conservancy Sustainable Strategy
Thank You