Transcript The three linked assessment components of the WWDR

Indices for Sustainable Resource Management:
Some Generic Thoughts and An Application to
Water Resources Management:
Kenneth Strzepek
University of Colorado
&
CISHDGC –CMU
Indicators/Indices in Our Lives
Numbers we should know:
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Cholesterol Level (HDL/LDL)
Blood Pressure
Men (Cancer Marker)
Nikkei
Dow Jones
GINI Coefficient
Plus/Minus & Goals Against
What is an indicator good for?
The role of an indicator is:
• to monitor performance (over time and across cases)
• to quantify (reduce uncertainty) and
• to simplify (reduce complexity).
"indicators fulfill the social purpose to improve communication" (WRI
1995)
Depending on who the audience of that communication process is,
indicators should
• describe and diagnose trends of states and developments
and identify limiting factors,
• educate the general public,
• help prepare political decisions and
• contribute to evaluating measures that have been undertaken.
Human Development Report
• Four composite indices for human development
have been developed —
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the Human Development Index,
the Gender-related Development Index,
the Gender Empowerment Measure, and
the Human Poverty Index.
Environmental Indicator
• United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
CSD
• OECD Environmental Indicators: Towards Sustainable
Development
• European System of Environmental Pressure Indices
• Interagency Working Group on Sustainable Development
Indicators
• The Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI)
Yale/CIESEN)
EU JRC EPI Dashboard
WRI Information/indicator pyramid
Modified Strict Pyramid
Indices
Indicators
Variables
Data
From Data to Information
A strict Taxonomy
• Indicator must be more than number they
must include knowledge about the “issue”
that the indicator is trying to provide insight
to, if it is going to be “educate the general public, help
prepare political decisions”
Following in an example we can all relate to:
Variable to Indicator
Men’s Weight Classes
Bantamweight (up to 143¼ lbs.)
Lightweight (over 143¼ and up to 154¼ lbs.)
Middleweight (over 154¼ and up to 176¼ lbs.)
Light Heavyweight (over 176¼ and up to 198¼ lbs.)
Heavyweight (over 198¼ and up to 225¼ lbs.)
Super Heavyweight (over 225¼ lbs.)
Indicator to Index
Are you fit ?
BMI Value
Class
0 - 18.4
Underweight
18.5 - 24.9
Normal Weight
25.0 - 29.9
Overweight
30.0 - 34.9
Obesity Class I
35.0 - 39.9
Obesity ClassII
40.0 and above
Obesity ClassIII
Conditional Indexes
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• BMI = w / h2
A recognized problem with the body mass index is that it doesn't distinguish
between fat weight and muscle weight. A modified BMI formula that takes fat
content into account:
• BMI' = (aFF + aLL) / h2
where F is fat weight, L is lean weight, and aF and aL are constants chosen to
satisfy the following two conditions:
BMI' = BMI for persons (of any weight) with a body fat content of 20%
aF = 2aL aF = 1.66 aL = 0.83
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These conditions respectively imply that:
BMI' is approximately equal to BMI for "average" persons
fat weight counts twice as much toward BMI' as lean weight; so for an
average person, an exercise program that puts on 2 pounds of muscle
for every pound of fat it burns off
Scale Issues in
Indicators:
Spatial, Temporal, Distributional
Zoom to Botswana
Botswana
Southern Africa Region
BOTSWANIAN USE TO YIELD RATIO
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
VALUES
TECH
BAU
1995
5%
NATIONAL
CENTRAL
OKAVANGO
EASTERN
0%
Demand for ???
Botswana
eastern
okavango
central
Human
1.1%
7.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Human&Nature
73.9%
8.3%
90.3%
80.1%
Temporal Issues
3.5
Demand/Supply
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month
8
9
10
11
12
Stochastic Issues
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
More
Frequency
Cumulative %
37
37.37%
14
51.52%
8
59.60%
4
63.64%
5
68.69%
4
72.73%
1
73.74%
4
77.78%
0
77.78%
1
78.79%
1
79.80%
0
79.80%
1
80.81%
2
82.83%
0
82.83%
0
82.83%
2
84.85%
0
84.85%
0
84.85%
2
86.87%
13 100.00%
Income Distribution
Distribution Issues
# of Hungry
Hunger Line (yH.L.)
Income
The three linked assessment components of the
WWDR
Assessment of
Human Water
Stewardship
Iterative
Trend
Analysis
Assessment of
Critical Problems
Assessment of the
State of the Global
Water System
The Problem
"I am determined to be wise"-but this was beyond me.
Whatever wisdom may be,
it is far off and most profound-who can discover it?
Ecc 7:24-25
The Answer
Plans fail for lack of counsel,
but with many advisers they succeed.
PR 15:22
Solomon “Middle East Stakeholder”
The Answer
“I can by with a little help from my friends”
Joe Cocker
Expert Group Recommendations
WWDR would be a major coordinated initiative of the UN
system that would cover two distinct areas for each
country:
 water resources assessment, development and
management, to be examined mainly at basin/aquifer
levels; and
 water infrastructure and services management,
including consumptive and non-consumptive uses and
disposal, to be analyzed mainly at the local level.
 Information on those two distinct areas and levels
would have to be aggregated at country level, for the
WWDR;
The Expert Group Meeting concluded that...
• A more global picture of the current situation of water resources
availability and uses in all countries, using data of regional and
global databases, will be produced, with a special focus on the
reliability and comparability of the data, together with appropriate
comments.
• The guiding principle of the exercise is Sustainable Development,
centred on basic human needs. As such, the WWDR intends to
present and use information in a manner similar to that of the
UNDP’s Human Development Report, and will integrate waterrelated parameters with socioeconomic parameters, through
appropriate links between the two reports and use of synthetic
indexes.
• )A methodological research needs to be conducted, to find the
most meaningful and simple way to link, for example, the following:
water access; macro-economic and physical context; household
revenues and human health; or to link: water and sanitation;
pollution; waste water treatments and disposal; and the status of
renewable water resources with the health of the environment.
The Expert Group Meeting concluded that...
• Modern tools , such as data bases, satellite imagery, GIS,
models and WEB sites, will be used progressively to compile,
analyse and diffuse, at country level and as appropriate,
relevant and reliable information.
• It has been recalled that beneficiaries of the project will be,
in the first place, the participating countries and their
decision-makers, specifically those in the water sector,
in order to stimulate and accelerate changes towards
sustainable water development and management. A more
effective and targeted support of the international
community to such local and national efforts is another
important objective of this UN report on water.
The Chicken and Egg Problems:
Dynamic Cyclical Definition
DATA
Model
Indicator
Indicator Consultants
Paper Topics
Surface Water Resources
Ground Water Resources
Extreme Events (Flood & Drought)
Water Quality
Storage and Delivery
Domestic Supply, Sanitation & Health
Municipal, Industrial & Energy
Food & Agriculture
Ecosystems
Instream & Other
Poverty & Gender
Economic Development
Institutions & Legal
Social & Economic Coping Capacity
EcoSystem Coping Capacity
Methodologies
Co-Authors
Yates
Gangopadhyay
O'Connell
Shanahan
Kirshen
Shiklamanov
McMichael
Huber/Kemp
Kulshrestra
Wiberg
Iglesia
Galbraith
Fahmy
Sullivan
Dowlatabdi
Harvelt
Major
Bowen
Prasad
Yohe
Tol
Babiker
Galbraith
Gangopadhyay
Institutions
NCAR
AIT/Univ of Colorado
Univ. of Newcastle
MIT
Tufts University
State Hydrologic Insitute
London School of TM & Hygiene
Stockholm Environment Institute
University of Saskatchewan
IIASA
Madrid Polytechnic
Galbraith Environmental Services
Minist. of Water Res.- Egypt
CEH - Wallingford
University of British Columbia
Consultant
Columbia University
University of Colorado
Weslyean University - USA
Hamburg University - Germnay
MIT/Sudan
Galbraith Environmental Services
Minist. of Water Res.- Egypt
Data to Indicators
Measured
Data
MODELS
NO
NO
Adequate
SYNTHETIC
VARIABLES
YES
Indicator
Using Models for Generating Data
Water Quality
No WQ Data?
Use simple models to
take
agro-ind-municpal activites
to loads
to stream Water Quality
Socio-economic
Activity
Modeled
Runoff
Pollution Generation
Watershed Fate and Transport
Pollution
Loadings
Driving Force to Loads
Assume Uniform Generation
over Political Region
Indicator
Figure 2 Sector Indicator Taxonomy
Attribute
Name Data
Value
BOD5
DO
NO3
ph
Temp
23 mg/l
5 mg/l
13 mg/l
3
13° C
Secondary
Modeled
Primary
Primary
Primary
Sectoral
Indicator
Indicator
1
3
5
4
3
3.2
Framework for Developing Indicators
Start
Measured or estimated
parameters / data
Indices/
Indicators
No
No
Case Studies
Yes
Consensus ?
Analysis and Evaluation
Results
Acceptable ?
Yes
No
Report:
WWDR
Response
STATE
Social
Economic
Institutional
Water
Related
Stress
Water-Related Vulnerability
(StateResponse)
Country
Table 1. Average State and Response Indicators
State Indicator Response
Vulnerability Heterogeneity
Indicator
Indicator
Argentina
Bangladesh
Brazil
4
4
4
3
2
3
3
3
3
Benin
Egypt
Ghana
Guatemala
Indonesia
Iran
Jordan
Mexico
Nepal
Peru
Zambia
5
2
5
5
4
3
3
4
4
4
5
2
3
2
3
3
3
2
2
3
2
2
4
2
4
4
3
3
2
3
3
3
4
heterogeneous
homogeneous
mildly
heterogeneous
homogeneous
homogeneous
homogeneous
mildly hetero.
mildly hetero.
heterogeneous
homogeneous
heterogeneous
mildly hetero.
heterogeneous
heterogeneous
Table 2. Comparison of Indicators
Country
Argentina
Bangladesh
Brazil
Benin
Egypt
Ghana
Guatemala
Indonesia
Iran
Jordan
Mexico
Nepal
Peru
Zambia
Per Captita
Availability
Stress Indicator
Use to
Availability
Stress
Indicator
Vulnerability
Indicator
5
4
5
4
1
4
5
5
4
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
1
5
5
5
2
1
4
4
5
5
3
3
3
4
2
4
4
3
3
2
3
3
3
4
Sustainable Water Mgt ?
Water
Use
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Lessons
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•
•
Institutional Issues
Data v. Insight
Simple v. Complex
Scale Issues : Insights or misleading
Human Nature Issues: Developers, Users,
and Audience
• Have lots of Cash in the Bank