Transcript Document

Roadmap for the Presentation
Senate Maps
House Maps
Governors Maps
1
Republicans Make Gains Across the Map
Senate Seats Gained/Held in the 2014 Midterm Elections
Democratic Gain
WA
Democratic Hold
MT
Republican Gain
OR
Republican Hold
VT
ND
MN
ID
Independent Gain
SD
WY
Undecided/Runoff
NV
No Election
CA
May take until
November 18 to count
all votes
MI
AZ
CO
PA
IA
NE
UT
IL
KS
OK
NM
TX
OH
IN
MO
WV VA
KY
AR
SC
AL
GA
LA
AK
FL
HI
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
NC
TN
MS
AK
NY
WI
ME
Runoff election will be
held on December 6,
2014
Democrats: 44
Republicans: 52
Independents: 2
Undecided: 2
Analysis
•Republicans won most of 2014’s competitive Senate races, taking seats in Colorado, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, and—unexpectedly—
North Carolina
•Republicans also won special elections this year in Oklahoma and South Carolina
•Louisiana will hold a December 6, 2014 runoff election , and Alaska could take until November 18, 2014 to count all remaining ballots,
but Republicans have already secured enough seats to control the Senate regardless of these outcomes
Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; Associated Press; NBC News.
SD: Mike Rounds (R),
despite seeing outside
money pour in against him at
the last minute after reports
of a scandal during his time
as governor, won an easy
victory over Rick Weiland
(D) and former Sen. Larry
Pressler (I)
GOP Dominates Competitive Races
Republican Victories
AK: Dan Sullivan
(R) and Sen. Mark
Begich (D) will need
to wait for results to
come in from rural
areas before their race
is decided, which could
take days or even
weeks
MI: Gary Peters (D) maintained Democratic
control of retiring Sen. Carl Levin’s seat
against Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn
Land (R)
WA
MT
CO: Cory Gardner
(R) defeated Sen.
Mark Udall easily after
Udall ran a poor onenote campaign on
reproductive health
that voters didn’t
engage with
Undecided
Democratic Victories
ND
OR
MN
Recommendations
and
SDdetected threats WI
ID
MI
IL
CO
CA
KS
AZ
NM
OK
TX
OH
IN
WV
VA
MO
KY
AR
SC
AL
GA
IA: Joni Ernst (R)
handily won election
over gaffe-prone Rep.
Bruce Braley (D) in
the race for Sen. Tom
Harkin (D)’s seat
FL
AR: Tom Cotton (R)
easily defeated Sen. Mark
Pryor, helping to complete
Arkansas’ transformation
into a Republican
stronghold
DE
MD
VA: Mark Warner
(D) hung on by a hair in
a surprisingly close race
against Ed Gillespie (R)
NC: Thom Tillis (R)
won a slim upset victory
over Kay Hagan (D)
LA
HI
KS: Sen. Roberts (R),
after facing bad polling
numbers earlier this
summer, brought in a
team of top-tier
Republican strategists
and won re-election by a
wide margin over Greg
Orman (I)
NJ
MA
RI
NC
TN
MS
AK
CT
PA
IA
NE
UT
NH
NY
WY
NV
ME
VT
NH: Sen.
Shaheen (D) held
off a national tide
against Democrats,
holding on to
defeat former
Massachusetts Sen.
Scott Brown (R)
LA: Sen. Landrieu (D) is
an underdog in a
December runoff election
against Rep. Bill Cassidy
(R)
KY: Sen. McConnell
(R) handily defeated
Alison Grimes (D) on his
way to becoming majority
leader
GA: David Perdue (R) avoided a
runoff, blowing out former nonprofit CEO Michelle Nunn
Source: National Journal Research 2014; Associated Press Election Results, 2014; Scott Bland, Andrea Drusch, and Alex Roarty, “Hotline’s Senate Race Rankings: Republicans On The Brink,” National Journal’s Hotline,
October 13, 2014.
Republicans Sweep Romney States, Win Iowa and Colorado
2012 Presidential Election Results vs. 2014 Senate Results
WA
MT
2012 Presidential Election
Result
ND
OR
MN
ID
Obama 2012 Victory
SD
NV
Undecided
MI
PA
UT
IL
KS
AZ
NM
HI
IN
MO
WV
OK
TX
VA
KY
MA
RI
NJ
DE
MD
DC
NC
TN
AR
SC
MS
AK
OH
CO
Republican win
Democratic win
CT
IA
NE
CA
NH
NY
WI
WY
Romney 2012 Victory
2014 Senate Result
ME
VT
AL
GA
LA
FL
• Republicans picked up (CO, IA) or held (ME) 3
states in Democratic territory
• Democrats struggled to hold on to most seats,
and did not pick up or hold any seats in
Republican territory
Source: National Journal Research with Josh Kraushaar.
Republicans Win Solid Majority in Senate
Control of the 114th Senate (2015-2017)
2 Democrats
WA
2 Republicans
MT
1 Democrat + 1 Republican
OR
1 Democrat + 1 Independent
VT
ND
MN
ID
1 Republican + 1 Independent
SD
WY
Undecided/Runoff
NV
CA
May take until Nov. 18th
to count all votes
MI
AZ
CO
PA
IA
NE
UT
IL
KS
OK
NM
TX
OH
IN
MO
WV VA
KY
AR
SC
AL
GA
LA
AK
FL
HI
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
NC
TN
MS
AK
NY
WI
ME
Runoff election will be
held on December 6,
2014
Democrats: 44
Republicans: 52
Independents: 1
Undecided: 2
Analysis
•Having won most of this year’s competitive races, Republicans secured at least 52 Senate seats on election night, flipping the Senate
from blue to red
•Additional GOP wins in Louisiana and Alaska are still possible
•If Republicans eventually expand their majority to 54 seats, they will have an easier time passing legislation in the Senate because they
will need fewer Democratic defections to overcome filibusters (which require a 60 vote supermajority)
Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; Associated Press; NBC News.
Roadmap for the Presentation
Senate Maps
House Maps
Governors Maps
6
Republicans Make Significant Gains in House
House Seats Gained/Held in the 2014 Midterm Elections
Democratic Gain
Democratic Hold
Republican Gain
Republican Hold
Undecided*
AK
Democrats: 175
Republicans: 243
Independents: 0
Undecided:
17
Analysis
Republicans were expected to keep control of the House, but strong performances in tossup districts and a handful of wins in states that
were expected to lean Democratic mean that the new GOP majority is even larger than expected
* Races not called as of 6am 11/5/2014; includes runoff elections to be held in LA-5 and LA-6
Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; The New York Times.
Republicans Win Record Majority in House
Control of the 114th House (2015-2017)
Democratic
Republican
Undecided*
AK
Democrats: 175
Republicans: 243
Independents: 0
Undecided: 17
Analysis
• Republicans won a total of at least 243 seats in the House, their largest majority since 1928
• An expanded GOP majority in the House means that Speaker Boehner will have an easier time passing legislation in the House
without Democratic support, and Republicans will also have an easier time holding on to their majority in future elections
* Races not called as of 6am 11/5/2014; includes runoff elections to be held in LA-5 and LA-6
Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; The New York Times.
Roadmap for the Presentation
Senate Maps
House Maps
Governors Maps
9
Republicans Extend Gubernatorial Advantage
Map of State Governors by Party
Dem Governor
WA
GOP Governor
MT
Undecided*
VT
ND
OR
MN
ID
SD
WY
NV
CA
MI
AZ
CO
PA
IA
NE
UT
IL
KS
OK
NM
TX
OH
IN
MO
KY
WV VA
AR
SC
AL
GA
LA
AK
FL
HI
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
NC
TN
MS
AK
NY
WI
ME
Democrats: 15
Republicans: 31
Independents: 0
Undecided: 3
*Race not called as of 6 AM 11/5
Analysis
•While Republicans already controlled most governors’ mansions prior to 2014 elections, gains in Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland,
Massachusetts, and Connecticut added to the GOP’s sizeable majority of governorships
•Legislative activity at the state level has taken on increased importance in recent years due to gridlock at the federal level; as such,
increased GOP control of governorships nationwide could give Republicans additional leverage to achieve policy goals at the state level
Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; Associated Press; NBC News.