Transcript Der russisch-ukrainische Gasstreit als Verhandlungsimpuls

The EU-Russia Energy Dialogue after the
Russian Ukrainian Gas Conflict
Seminar: The Impact of the EU Enlargement
upon the Energy Market
Munich 26 January 2007
Dr. Josephine Bollinger-Kanne
Causes and Results of the RussianUkrainian Gas Conflict
(1)
Gazproms delivery stop of natural
gas to Ukraine on 1 January 2006
at 10:00 am
(2)
Agreement on 4 January 2006:
•
RosUkrEnergo as purchaser of
Gazprom‘s and Central Asian natural
gas for the Ukraine
•
Mix of Russian and Central Asian gas for
$95 per 1,000 cubic meters
•
Increased transit fee: from $1.09 to 1.6
per 100 km per 1,000 cubic meters
•
no more barter
 High fuel prices in the last years
 Gazprom‘s price demands of
$160 in November 2005 and
$230 per 1,000 of cubic meters
later in December 2005
 No Pipelinedeal with Ukraine
 Higher transit fee demands of
Ukrainian negotiators
Impacts of the Gas Conflict
on EU Member States
•
•
•
•
•
Reduced gas supplies between 20 and 50 percent to EU Member States
after the cut-off Russian gas to Ukraine on 1 January 2006
Growing concerns about the Russian supply security
Awakening of the EU Member States to the vulnerability by their demand of
natural gas and to the poltical power of natural resources
Correcting of the European Energy Strategy - Green Book by the
responsible EU energy officals
Intensified EU-Russia Energy Dialogue negotiations and several summits
and conferences in 2006
Major Gas Pipelines of the Former Soviet Union
80 percent of Russian gas to
Europe is transported across
Ukraine
Structure of primary energy demand
in EU25 and EU27
100%
27,8
27,4
18,5
18,8
15,8
16,2
13,8
14,2
15,5
15,9
80%
Solid Fuels
38,4
60%
38,3
38,0
36,9
36,6
33,4
Liqued Fuels
28,1
28,2
27,3
27,4
Natural Gas
23,0
25,6
14,3
13,5
12,1
12,0
11,1
11,1
Nuclear
14,4
13,7
5,8
5,9
7,9
8,0
10,4
10,3
12,2
12,1
17,9
20%
0%
33,8
25,5
22,8
12,7
4,4
35,2
37,9
40%
16,7
35,5
12,2
4,4
1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030
EU25 EU27 EU25 EU27 EU25 EU27 EU25 EU27 EU25 EU27
Renewable En.
Sourses
Source: EC DG TREN, European Energy and Transport.Trends to 2030 - Update 2005
Gross Inland Consumption of Natural Gas
2005 and 2020 in %
55
51.7
50
45
2005
2020
49.7
46.5
49.0
45.2
40
39.0
42.0
36.2
37.4
38.0
38.5
35
35.4
34.5
30
29.5
28.1
30.0
25
23.8
20
24.6
17.1
14.6
15
13.7
10
12.5
5
0
Lithunia
The
Netherlands
Hungary
UK
Romania
Italy
Slovakia
Germanay
Austria
France
Source: EC DG TREN, European Energy and Transport.Trends to 2030 - Update 2005
Bulgaria
EU-Russia Energy Dialogue
•
•
•
•
Launching: at the EU-Russia Summit in Paris in October 2000
Aim: better energy relations between EU and Russia based on the assumption
of their growing interdependence: from the EU for reasons of security of supply
and from Russia for reason of secure foreign investment and its facilitated
access to EU and world markets
Main topics: energy security, investments, infrastructures, trade and energy
efficiency
Results: six Progress Reports from 2000 to 2006 with one Interim Report in
spring 2006 in the aftermath of the Gas conflict, first reports of the four thematic
working groups in accordance to the main topics, various conferences and
activities of the Dialogue Technology Centre
Two urgent Questions after Russia‘s New Year gas delivery stop to Ukraine:
What is the best way to deal with growing imports of Russian Natural Gas
from 25 percent today up to 70 percent by 2030?
Is there enough Russian natural gas for all?
Russia‘s Production of Natural Gas
in Billion Cubic Meters
2001
Production in total
Independent Producer
Production of Gazprom
Gazprom's Export to
Europe
Gazprom's Export to
CIS/Balticum
Russia's Energy
Strategy 2003 and
Gazprom
Production in total
Production of Gazprom
Prognoses in December
2006
Production in total
Independent Producer
Production of Gazprom
581
69
512
127
2005 Increase 20012006
2005 in %
expected
636
9
645
88
28
95
548
7
550
156
23
40
77
2010
2020
665
560
2010
730
590
2020
722
111
611*
674
93
Increase 20062010 in %
3
2
Increase 20062010 in %
12
17
11
*averaged value
Source: Gazprom, Economic Development and Trade Ministry and own computations