Transcript Reproductive behaviour of the czech population

TRENDS IN FAMILY BEHAVIOUR:
FERTILITY PATTERNS
Jitka Rychtaříková
Department of Demography and Geodemography
Faculty of Science, Charles University in Prague
Albertov 6, 128 43 Praha, Czech Republic
[email protected]
+420 221951420
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Outline








Cohort and cross-sectional perspective
Age profiles
Birth order
Marital status
Education
Contraception
Day care
Attitudes towards having another child
Decrease in fertility also confirmed from
a cohort perspective
Sum of age-specific fertility rates: cross-sectional and cohort view
2,8
Promised pro-family
measures never implemented
2,6
completed fertility rate
Pro-family measures
implemented
total fertility rate
2,4
birt cohort 1981
2,2
1,4
1,2
birth cohort 1970
birth cohort 1960
birth cohort 1950
1,6
birth cohort 1940
1,8
birth cohort 1930
2,0
Fertility decrease and a rise
in the age of mothers at childbirth
1,0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005 2008
The lowest total fertility rate in the Czech
Republic (1,13) was recorded in 1999.


For the first time in the history of fertility in the Czech Republic
(the Czech Lands) there were fewer than 1,5 live births per woman
for an extended period of time (between 1995 and 2005 the figure
was even lower - below 1,3); at present, 1,5 is the average total
fertility of the European Union.
The long-term trends of both basic general indicators of women’s
fertility, i.e. total fertility rate (the average number of live-born
children per woman of reproductive age within a calendar year) and
completed fertility rate (the average number of live-born children
per woman of reproductive age within a given generation of
women) indicate that the recent changes signify a clear turning
point in reproductive patterns and they also lessen the likelihood
that there will be a return to the pattern of simple reproduction, i.e.
to the average of two children per woman of reproductive age
After a short and moderate baby-boom, oscillations in TFR
have been related to actual population climate
LOCAL
Year
1960
1968
1999
Birth cohort
1943
1981
Year
2008
TFR
1,50
TFR
2,11
1,83
1,13
Minima
Number of live births
128 879
137 437
89 471
Year
1964
1974
TFR
2,36
2,43
Minima
Maxima
CFR (completed fertility rate)
Birth cohort
2,02
1950
1,52
1951
Maxima
Number of live births
154 420
194 215
2,10
2,10
CURRENT FIGURES
Number of live births Mean age at first childbirth
119 570
27,33
AGE
The birth cohort 1950 was the “luckiest“
and documented the success of family policy measures of the 1970’s
Low
percentage
of childless
women 6,5%
Age-specific fertility rate p. 1000 women
250
CFR=2,10
200
Birth cohorts
1930
1940
Only one
child women
14 %
Two child
women 54 %
Three child
women 21 %
150
1950
1960
1970
100
1980
50
0
age
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
Recent changes in age intensity profile
and fertility timing
Age-specific fertility rates
Mean age at first childbirth
1,0
0,9
30
20-24
29
0,8
28
Mean age at first childbirth
0,7
27
0,6
26
25-29
0,5
25
0,4
24
0,3
23
-19
30-34
0,2
0,1
0,0
Year
22
21
35-39
40+
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
20
The only ‘visible’ gain was recorded
in the category of women aged 30-34


However, this positive trend does not
offset the decrease in fertility intensity
recorded among young women aged 24
and under.
The same trend can be observed from
cohort perspective.
Rapid shift by 9 years within 20 year period
Age-specific fertility rates
0,20
Modal age
1988: 21
0,18
Years
0,16
1988
0,14
1998
0,12
2008
0,10
1998: 24
2008: 30
0,08
0,06
0,04
0,02
0,00
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
The most numerous 1974 birth cohort has been affected
the most by the transformation of the 1990’s
In the year
1993 women
were 19 and in
2008 at age of
34.
Age-specific fertility rate p. 1000 women
200
Birth cohorts
1970
1972
150
1974
1976
1978
100
It combines
low fertility
before the age
of 26-27 and
slight
compensation
afterwards.
1980
50
age
0
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
BIRTH
ORDER
Total fertility rate by birth order
2,0
Birth order
1
2
3
4+
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Decrease in the first and second birth order fertility
contributes the most to the current drop
Changes in cross-sectional childlessness:
1988: 8,8 %
1998: 47,3 %
(percentage of childless women)
2008: 26,5 %
Unlike age, birth order fertility changes less over time and
says more about the final number of children.


Between 1986 and 2008, in the Czech Republic
fertility rates primarily decreased in the firstorder and second-order.
Like with total fertility rate, the current rate of
total first-order fertility is at the same level as
in 1994 and the second-order fertility rate
corresponds to levels in 1994-1995.
Fertility decrease affected all significant birth
orders; is that the impact of postponement?
TFR 1988:
1st
0,912
2nd
0,733
3rd
0,220
Age and birth order specific fertility rates
0,14
1_1988
0,12
2_1988
3_1988
0,10
1_2008
0,08
TFR 2008:
0,06
1st
0,734
0,04
2nd
0,548
0,02
3rd
0,156
2_2008
3_2008
0,00
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
age
50
EXTRAMARITAL
FERTILITY
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
30
1994
4+
1993
35
1992
3
1991
40
1990
45
1989
1988
1987
1986
Percentage of live extra-marital births by birth order
Increase in extramarital fertility
mostly for the 1st birth order
50
1
2
Total
25
20
15
10
5
0
A new and significant feature of fertility in the Czech
Republic is the growing percentage of extramarital births.



Until the start of the 1990s, extramarital
births made up no more than 10% of the
total.
Nevertheless, the share of extramarital
births is very differentiated by birth order.
Extramarital fertility is higly prevalent
among women with lower educational
attainment.
Higher education more traditional behaviour
Percentage of extramarital live births by educational attainment
80
Basic
70
Vocational
60
Secondary
University
50
Total
34,3 %
40
30
20
10
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
0
OTHER
CONTRIBUTING
FACTORS
Factors contributing to fertility change



Contraception
Break with the past conditions
for parenthood
Factual deterioration for
reconciling work and family
Increased use of modern contraception has
contributed to induced abortion (LIA) decline
500
45
40
hormonal
IUD
35
LIA
350
30
300
25
250
20
200
15
150
10
100
year
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
0
1976
0
1974
5
1972
50
induced abortions p. 1000 women
400
1970
contraception use p. 1000 women
450
Disappearence of daycare
for children under the age of three
Percentage of children in daycare
100
Number of Number of
90
Year
creches
places
1960
884
30711
1965
1122
44917
1970
1321
53272
60
1975
1504
57634
50
1980
1672
69828
1985
1794
72773
1990
1043
39829
1995
207
7574
20
2000
65
1867
10
2005
54
1671
2007
49
1587
80
70
Creches
Kindergarten
40
30
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Note: more than 100 % ; children younger than 3 years are enrolled
Who
wants
another
baby now
*Males
*University
educated
*Without a
child or
having one
*Religious
affiliation
Sex of respondent
female vs male
Parameter
estimate Pr > ChiSq
-0,2044
0,0182
Odds
Ratios
0,815
Confidence Limits
0,688
0,966
Living with a partner together
yes vs no
0,8018
<,0001
2,230
1,828
2,719
Education
basic vs secondary
vocational versus secondary
university vs secondary
-0,1807
0,0514
0,4131
0,1320
0,6103
0,0023
0,835
1,053
1,511
0,660
0,864
1,159
1,056
1,283
1,971
Age
18-29 vs 30-39
40-49 vs 30-39
-0,1001
-2,1800
0,3429
<,0001
0,905
0,113
0,736
0,086
1,113
0,148
Resident biological children
0 vs 2
1 vs 2
3+ vs 2
2,4841
2,0628
-1,9338
<,0001
<,0001
0,0066
11,990
7,868
0,145
8,689
5,780
0,036
16,545
10,709
0,583
Religion
other vs none
roman catholic vs none
0,4579
0,2500
0,0053
0,0197
1,581
1,284
1,146
1,041
2,181
1,584
Generations and Gender Survey: second wave 2008
4 444 respondents: 1 685 males and 2 759 females aged 18-49
People’s attitudes towards
parenthood slowly change


People still value children, however,
increasingly among highly educated
and males.
When looking at recent fertility
patterns in the Czech Republic,
a low-fertility trap will pose a real
potential barrier to sustaining Czech
population development in the future.