Transcript Slide 1

Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
WORLD FUEL OIL PRICES:
IN SEARCH OF STRUCTURE
Lawrence Axelrod
Axelrod Energy Projects
Jifeng Workshop
October 29, 2009
Beijing
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
2
Overview
• United States
– New York 1%S
– US Gulf 3%S
• Europe
– Med 1%S
– NWE 3.5%S
• Singapore
– LSWR
– HSFO 380 cSt
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
3
Crude ($/bbl)
120
7
6
100
5
80
4
60
WTI
Brent
3
Brent Minus Dubai
Dubai
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
1
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sept 2009
Jan-Sept 2008
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
2001
0
2
2000
20
Minas
1999
40
4
Ratios (%)
100%
120%
90%
100%
80%
70%
80%
60%
LSWR/Minas
Singapore HSFO
380 cSt/Dubai
60%
50%
1%S NYH/WTI
USGC 3%S/WTI
40%
30%
20%
1%S FOB
Med/Brent
40%
3.5%S FOB
NWE/Brent
20%
10%
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sept 09
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0%
2000
0%
5
New York ($/bbl)
140
50
45
120
40
100
35
80
30
WTI
60
25
NY No.2 Oil
40
WTI minus 1%S NYH
1%S NYH
20
NY No.2 Oil minus NY
1%S
15
10
20
5
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sept 2009
Jan-Sept 2008
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
2000
0
6
New York ($/bbl)
14
100
90
12
80
10
70
60
8
50
1%S NYH
40
0.3%S HP minus 1%S
NYH
0.3%S HP NYH 6
3%S NYH
30
1%S NYH minus 3%S
NYH
4
20
10
2
0
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sept 2009
Jan-Sept 2008
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
7
New York ($/bbl)
140
6
120
5
100
4
80
3
0.3%S LP NYH
60
0.3%S LP NYH minus
0.3%S HP NYH
0.3%S HP NYH
NY No.2 Oil
2
40
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sept 2009
Jan-Sept 2008
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
2001
0
1
2000
20
8
New York ($/bbl)
6
5
4
3
2
1%S FOB NWE minus 1%S NYH
1
1%S FOB Med minus 1%S NYH
0
-1
-2
-3
2000
2001
2002
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Jan-Sept
2008
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sept
2009
9
US Gulf ($/bbl)
140
60
120
50
100
40
80
30
WTI
60
WTI minus USGC 3%S
3%S
No. 2 Oil
No. 2 Oil minus 3%S
20
40
10
20
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sep 2009
Jan-Sep 2008
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
2000
0
10
US Gulf ($/bbl)
90
8
80
7
70
6
60
5
50
US Gulf Coast 1%S
Fuel Oil
40
US Gulf Coast 3%S
Fuel Oil
30
4
USGC 1%S minus
USGC 3%S Fuel Oil
3
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sep 2009
Jan-Sep 2008
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2000
Jan-Sep 2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
2002
0
2001
1
2000
10
2001
2
20
11
US Gulf ($/bbl)
7
6
5
4
USGC 3% minus FOB NWE 3.5%S
3
USGC 3% minus FOB Med 3.5%S
Singapore HSFO minus USGC 3%
2
1
0
-1
2000
2001
2002
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Jan-Sep
2008
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sep
2009
12
US Gulf ($/bbl)
90
6
80
5
70
60
4
50
40
30
3
3%S Fuel Oil
Houston IFO 380 minus
USGC 3%S
Houston IFO 380
2
20
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sep 2009
Jan-Sep 2008
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
2001
0
1
2002
10
13
Med ($/bbl)
140
50
45
120
40
100
80
60
40
35
30
Brent
25
Brent minus 1%S
20
0.2%S FOB Med Gasoil
minus 1%S FOB Med
1%S FOB Med
0.2%S FOB Med
Gasoil
15
10
20
5
0
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
0
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
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Med ($/bbl)
10
90
9
80
8
70
7
60
6
50
5
40
1%S FOB Med
30
3.5% Med
1%S FOB Med minus
3.5%S FOB Med
4
20
3
10
2
0
1
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sept 09
Jan-Sept 08
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
15
Med ($/bbl)
6
5
4
3
2
1%S FOB Med minus 1%S FOB NWE ($/bbl)
1
1%S FOB Med minus 1%S NYH ($/bbl)
0
-1
-2
-3
2000
2001
2002
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Jan-Sept Jan-Sept
08
09
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
16
NWE ($/bbl)
60
140
120
50
100
40
80
Brent
30
60
40
20
0
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
Brent minus FOB NWE
3.5%S
FOB NWE 3.5%S
FOB NWE Gasoil
0.2%S/0.1%S
20
FOB NWE Gasoil
0.2%S/0.1%S minus
FOB NWE 3.5%S
10
0
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
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NWE ($/bbl)
90
12
80
10
70
60
8
50
6
40
FOB NWE 1%S
FOB NWE 1%S minus
FOB NWE 3.5%S
FOB NWE 3.5%S
30
4
20
2
10
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sept 09
Jan-Sept 08
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
2000
0
18
NWE ($/bbl)
10
9
8
7
6
FOB Med 3.5%S minus FOB NWE 3.5%S
5
NY 3%S minus FOB NWE 3.5%S
Singapore HSFO 380 cargo minus FOB NWE 3.5%S
4
3
2
1
0
2000
2001
2002
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008 Jan-Sept Jan-Sept
08
09
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
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NWE ($/bbl)
80
6
70
5
60
4
50
40
FOB NWE 3.5%S
30
3
Rotterdam IFO 380
minus FOB NWE 3.5%S
Rotterdam IFO 380
2
20
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sept 09
Jan-Sept 08
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
2001
0
1
2002
10
20
Singapore LSWR ($/bbl)
140
45
40
120
35
100
30
80
Singapore 0.5%S
Gasoil
60
Minas
40
LSWR
25
Minas minus LSWR
20
Singapore 0.5%S
Gasoil minus LSWR
15
10
20
5
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sept 2009
Jan-Sept 2008
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
2000
Jan- Sept 2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
21
Singapore LSWR ($/bbl)
100
16
90
14
12
80
10
70
8
60
6
4
Singapore HSFO
380 cSt
2
30
0
20
-2
10
-4
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sept 2009
Jan-Sept 2008
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
-6
2000
0
LSWR-HSFO 380 cSt
2002
40
LSWR
2001
50
22
Singapore LSWR ($/bbl)
100
6
90
4
80
70
2
60
0
50
LSWR
LSWR-NYH 0.3%HP
NYH 0.3%HP
40
-2
30
20
-4
10
-6
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 JanSept
2009
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
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Singapore HSFO ($/bbl)
140
50
45
120
40
100
80
35
30
Dubai
Dubai minus Singapore
HSFO 380 cSt
25
60
40
Singapore HSFO
380 cSt
20
Singapore 0.5%S
Gasoil
15
Singapore 0.5%S Gasoil
minus Singapore HSFO
380 cSt
10
20
5
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sept 08
Jan-Sept 09
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
2000
0
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Singapore HSFO ($/bbl)
140
3.00
120
2.50
100
2.00
Singapore HSFO 180
cSt minus Singapore
HSFO 380 cSt
Singapore HSFO
180 cSt
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
Jan-Sept 08
Jan-Sept 09
2008
0.00
2007
0
2006
0.50
2000
20
2005
1.00
2004
Singapore 0.5%S
Gasoil
2003
40
1.50
2002
60
Singapore HSFO
380 cSt
2001
80
25
Singapore HSFO ($/bbl)
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
Singapore HSFO 380 minus FOB Med Italy 3.5%S
Singapore HSFO 380 minus FOB NWE 3.5%S
4.00
Singapore HSFO 380 minus 3%S USGC
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
26
Singapore HSFO ($/bbl)
90
1.8
80
1.6
70
1.4
60
1.2
50
1
40
Singapore HSFO
380 cSt
30
Singapore IFO 380
Bunker
20
10
0
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
0.8
Singapore IFO 380
Bunker minus HSFO
380
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
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Conclusion
•
•
•
•
•
Strong HSFO -- narrow Hi-Lo’s
Narrowing spreads -- .3LP/.3HP & Sing 180/380
Steady HSFO arb to East
Reversal of inter-regional LSFO spreads
Bunker margins under pressure
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com
28
Axelrod Energy Projects LLC
www.axelrodenergyprojects.com