Transcript Diapositiva 1 - Permanent Committee on Cadastre in the

AUTOMATED VALUATION MODELS OF REAL STATE FOR CADASTRAL PURPOSES
Reform of the Italian cadastral
valuation system:
regulations, analysis and testing
Santiago de Compostela, October 20th 2006
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Reasons for the reform process
SYSTEM
OUTDATE AND
STATIC
LOW QUALITY OF
VALUATIONS
INEQUALITY OF
REAL ESTATE
TAXATION SYSTEM
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
The new valuation system: requirements
CREATION OF A NEW
CADASTRAL VALUATION
SYSTEM
OBJECTIVE
GENERAL PURPOSES
EQUITY OF REAL
ESTATE
TAXATION
LAND PLANNING
AND MANAGMENT
TRASPARENCY OF
REAL ESTATE
MARKET
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
SPECIFIC PURPOSES
TRASPARENCY
DYNAMISM
EFFICIENCY
The new valuation system: structure
SUB-SYSTEMS
DISTINCTIVE ELEMENTS
BUILDING AND REAL
ESTATE UNIT
CHARACTERS
POSITIONAL
CHARACTERS
BUILDINGS
RURAL
LANDS
BUILDING
LOTS
TECHNICAL AND
PRODUCTIVE
CHARACTERS
BUILDING CAPACITY
THREE SUBSYSTEMS TO DEVELOP AND IMPROVE,
STARTING FROM THE BUILDINGS CADASTRE
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
The new valuation system: requirements
Sub-systems
RURAL
LANDS
BUILDING
LOTS
THE
VALUATION
SYSTEM
BUILDINGS
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
The new valuation system: informing principles
THE REFORM PROJECT SEIZES
AND EXPLOITS THE
OPPORTUNITIES CURRENTLY
OFFERED AT LEVEL:
FROM THE USE OF COMPUTERIZED AND
ON-LINE ADVANCED TOOLS
NATIONAL
AND A SHARED
LAND INFORMATION SYSTEM
FROM THE EXPERIENCES ALREADY
CARRIED OUT IN OTHER COUNTRIES
INTERNATIONAL
FROM THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
BRANCHES OF VALUATION
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
The new valuation system: primary legislative choices
REFORM (not review)
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM ADAPTABLE AND
BASED ON VALUES AND INCOMES
CAP
RATE
VALUES
INNOVATIVE METHODS DIFFERENT
DIVERSIFIED FOR EACH ANALIZED
SUBSYSTEM AND BASED ON
MATHEMATICAL/STATISTICAL MODELS
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
INCOMES
Innovative valuation procedures: possible approaches
ENFORCEABLE
VALUATION PROCEDURE
MARKET CONDITION
Large number of market data
possibility to create an
appropriate statistical sample
Econometric procedures
(regression models, etc.)
Short number of market data
Market Comparison Approach
Impossibility to create an
appropriate statistical sample
Inadequate real estate transfer data
Availability of adequate rent data, in
case of dynamic rent market
Financial procedures
Inadequate real estate
sale and rent data
Real estate reconstruction value
Availability of price data for the areas
(net … value)
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Preliminary check: enforceability
units
(Millions)
Critical case linked to the
market short dynamis, that
requires the use of
alternative valuation
procedures
50 millions
(nearly)
1,5 millions
(nearly)
Areas
6
RESIDENTIAL
SHOP
BOX
OFFICE
WAREHAUSE
LABORATORY
AREAS OF POSSIBLE USE OF
ECONOMETRIC PROCEDURES
(STATISTICAL REGRESSION
MODELS, ….)
~ 40
BARRACKS
BOARDING SCHOOL
MUSEUM, SCHOOL
INDUSTRY
CINEMA
AREAS IN WHICH THE USE OF
ALTERNATIVE VALUATION PROCEDURES
IS PREVALENT (DEPRECIATED
RECONTRUCTION VALUE AND/OR VALUE
BASED ON CAPITALIZATION OF INCOME)
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Real
estate
groups
Testing objectives
TESTING
ENFORCEABILITY
COVERAGE
IN ORDER
TO VERIFY
QUALITY/COSTS
TIME
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Conceptual model: residential
Positional
characters of
zone
Positional
characters
of the
neighbourhood
Municipality
Technical
characters of
the building
Technical
characters of
the unit
Civil building
zone
BM
+20%
1,5-1,6
A
+10%
Valore medio
1,6-2
General model of function for real estate valuation
V= Average value
x
zone coef.
A
x
Neighbour. coef.
x
Building coef.
B
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
C
x
Unit coef.
D
A
POSITIONAL CHARACTERS
OF ZONE
B
POSITIONAL CHARACTERS
OF THE NEIGHBOURHOOD
C
D
TECHNICAL
CHARACTERS
OF THE BUILDING
TECHNICAL
CHARACTERS
OF THE UNIT
Town centre, valuable zone, …
IMPORTANT TECHNICAL PARAMETERS
Groups of characters
Parametri tecnici
(with reference to the municipality)
relative position in the zone, specific
characters of the neighbourhood
Historical or modern building
Building maintenance
Building typology
Structural typology
Building equipment
Building trimmings
Size of common portions
Class of area
Level (with or without lift)
Predominant overlooking
Rationality of rooms distribution in the unit
Trimmings and equipment
Unit state
(if different from the building)
(if different from the building)
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Optimization of quality / costs ratio
Vi = ƒ (A;B;C;D)
Number of
processed
functions
Approximate
representation
of the optimisation area about
the relationship between the
number of functions and the
number of parameters
Number of analysed parameters
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Optimization of quality / costs ratio
Costs
(C)
CONFIRMATIONS FROM THE
TESTING ACTIVITY
Positional zone
characters
Positional
Technical
characters of characters
the buildings of the units
neighbourhood
Quality of the Evaluation(Q)
(BESIDES THE AREA AND AVAILABLE OTHER-ONES) THE USE OF ADDICTIONAL
TECHNICAL DATA, WHICH DESCRIBE THE UNIT, GENERATES A CONSIDERABLE
INCREASE OF COSTS. THIS INCREASE IS NOT PROPORZIONATE TO THE
IMPROVEMENT OF THE QUALITY OF THE EVALUATION.
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
The testing activity about the building sub - system
The geographical areas of the testing activity
Aosta
Milano
Novara
Torino
Genova
Belluno
Pordenone
20
PROVINCIES
Bologna
Firenze
40
MUNICIPALITIES
Ancona
Terni
L'Aquil
a
Campobasso
Roma
Napoli
Cagliari
Taranto
Potenza
Catanzaro
Siracusa
100
ZONES
10.000
BUILDINGS
100.000
IMMOVABLE UNITS
FOR EACH GEOPRAPHICAL AREA OF THE TESTING ACTIVITY THERE
IS A LOCAL WORKING TEAM. ALL THE LOCAL TEAMS ARE
COORDINATED BY A TASK-FORCE AT CENTRAL LEVEL
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
The analysed real estate asset
The whole real estate asset
T7
100%
T2
SPECIAL
9%
9%
9%
T1 3%
80%
52%
R1
23%
60%
R4
ORDINARY
40%
91%
3%
R2
R1/R2 =
R4=
T1=
T2=
T7=
20%
0
RESIDENZIAL O MIXED UNITS
GARAGES
SHOPS
WAREHOUSES
OFFICES
Asset
THE TESTING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN EXTENDED ON CATEGORIES (GROUPS),
WHICH REPRESENT THE 91% OF THE WHOLE REAL ESTATE ASSET
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
The workflow of the supposed process
TYPOLOGIC
FUNCTIONAL
SEGMENTS
≈
CADASTRAL
CATEGORIES
GEOGRAPHIC
SEGMENTS
≈
ZONES
TECHNICAL
PARAMETERS
VALUES
Market Values
In each zone determination of the
driver parameters: neighbourhood
characters, building and urban
real estate units characters
CAP-RATE
INCOMES
Ordinary Incomes
INNOVATIVE
EVALUATION
PROCEDURES
Determination of value/income through standardized and
computerized procedures with the support of
mathematical-statistical techniques
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Geographical subdivision
Subdivision of the Municipal circumscription in
homogeneous areas (zones)
8
2
4O
PARAMETRIC SCALE OF THE
POSITIONAL FACTOR
( zone factor  ambit factor)
7O
100
40
3
75
4
60
5O
100
A±B
7
ZONES
7O
1
6
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
85
5
Statistical and mathematical procedures
The evaluation function, which is checked for each
tyological-functional group
V= b0 *
1*
x2 * x
3*
x
4*
……………………….
CZ =
X1………....XM
CN =
XM+1………...XI
CB =
xI+1………..xF
A
B
C
*
xn-2 * xn-1
*
xn
CU =
xF+1……….xU
D
The first testing activities involved from 10 to 15 parameters
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Segmentazione funzionale - tipologica
Residential
Commercial
BUILDINGS
Offices
Productive
•Real estate units in buildings for residential use
and for mixed destinations
•Real estate units included in villas and cottages
Typical real estate units of a place or region
•Sheltered parking places, not sheltered parking
places in private areas, boxes
• Shops and similar real estate units
•Sheds, warehouses, workshops and similar real
estate units
•Buildings and other real estate units for sport
activities
•Guesthouses
•multi-storey car park, car park in specific areas
or in buildings, for public use
• Offices, work-rooms and similar real estate
units
•Real estate units for productive activities
•Real estate units for productive activities
related to Agriculture
•Real estate unit for mixed commercial activities
and service industry activities
•Real estate units for mixed service industry and
office districts activities
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Innovative valuation procedures: the regression
MULTIPARAMETERS REGRESSION
MAKES IT POSSIBLE TO CALCULATE THE REAL
ESTATE VALUE V (dependent variable) IN RELATION
WITH THE TECHNICAL CHARACTERS xi, HAVING
i=1,2,…,n (independent variables), WITH DIFFERENT
RELATIONS:
Linear
V = c0 + m1
Exponential in
the variables
V = b0 * b1
Exponential in
the coefficients
*
y1
Y1+ …+ mn
*
b2
y2
*
…
V = b0 * y1 b1 * y2 b2* …..
More appropriate function,
on the basis of the tests
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
*
*
*
Yn
bnyn
yn
bn
% of buildings,
which Error is higher than 20%
The testing activity: quality of results
10%
8
8%
8%
7%
6%
6
4
2
0
Max error
means
The statistical sampling has involved about 100 zones, which
are composed by 10.000 buildings, which characteristics have
been surveyed.
Results has been extended to 100.000 real estate units.
R1-Res. Units
T1-Shops
R4-Garages
T7-Offices
27%
23%
23%
24%
Buildings with a percentage error higher than the “acceptable level”
(20%) are less than 10%. However the average error is lower than 30%.
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Verification of the model: results for the segment R1- residential
Total buildings of the analysed samples = 1.792 that statistically
represent 1/30 of 53.460 buildings in the D.B. and 268.800 units (1/150)
Analysed buildings
66%
100%
Error between
20% and 10%
Error <10%
Total buildings
14%
5%
100%
80
60
40
26%
20
0
8%
Error>20%
Average
maximum errors
27%
Less than 10% of the buildings shows an error above 20%, with an average
maximum error of 27%
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Verification of the model: results for the segment R1- residential
Frequency
100%
80%
80
85%
80%
60
45%
40
35%
30%
20
10%
0
Zone Neighbourhood
Building Historical or Construction Other
Maintenance typology modern period typology
appreciation
•
•
On average the regressions use 4 parameters (3 related to the building + 1
related to the neighbourhood)
In 35% of cases the parameter “zone appreciation” was used, too,
in aggregation cases
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Innovative evaluation procedures: quality-costs relation
100
Quality
100
A
B
C
D
Positional zone
characters
Positional
characters of the
neighbourhood
Technical
characters of
the building
Technical
characters of
the unit
80/85
65
MUNICIPALITY
50
ZONE
M
B
A
Costs
Civil building
10 15
3,3 – 5,0
+20%
40 50 1,5-1,6
20
- +10%
Average
value
25
2,5 – 3,2
1,6-2
1,8 – 2,0
0,15
Q/C
Quality average indicators in relation with the typologies and the number of the used technical parameters
Costs average indicators in relation with the typologies and the number of the surveyed technical
parameters (on the spot, especially for the C and D characters)
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
The model – simplified methodology
NEIGHBOURHOOD
BUILDING
Civil building
ORDINARY I.U.
+
I.U. ordinary for
size and floor
level
-
The methodology determined for ordinary units and buildings makes it
possible to reduce the number of evaluation functions to be elaborated
and buildings to be surveyed, as well as to limit the survey to the
neighbourhood and building parameters
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Mathematical - statistical procedures
The evaluation function under examination
V= b0 *
1*
x2 * x
3*
x
4*
……………………….
CZ =
X1………....XM
CN =
XM+1………...XI
CB =
xI+1………..xF
A
B
C
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
*
xn-2 * xn-1
*
xn
CU =
xF+1……….xU
D
Innovative evaluation procedures: ordinary units
BUILDING
IMMOVABLE UNIT
IMMOVABLE UNIT
STANDARD BUILDING
(with regression)
STANDARD
CHARACTERS OF THE
UNIT
FLOOR
LEVEL
Standard characters
AREA CLASS
A great part of the real estate can be evaluated through standard
regressive procedures
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Innovative evaluation procedures: not ordinary units (special)
BUILDING
STANDARD BUILDING
(with regression)
IMMOVABLE UNIT
STANDARD
CHARACTERS OF THE
UNIT
IMMOVABLE UNIT
FLOOR
LEVEL
AREA CLASS
BUILDING ADJUSTMENT
CHARACTERS
UNIT ADJUSTMENT
CHARACTERS
NET
INTERNAL
HEIGHT
PREVAILING
EXPOSURE
……
Standard characters
Non-standard characters
The residual real estate can be evaluated through specific
adjustment coefficients at building and unit level
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
From a value basis to a rental one
Currency / cap-rate
Unitary market price (Euro/sq)
Surveyed
cap-rate
CAPRATE
Calculated
cap-rate
Unitary rental income (Euro/(sq month)
Location
CENTRE
SUBURBS
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Correspondence of the new system with the purposes
and requirements
CHECK OF THE SYSTEM
CORRESPONDENCE WITH
REQUIREMENTS OF:
FISCAL EQUITY
SIMPLICITY AND
TRANSPARENCY
EFFICIENCY AND
DYNAMISM
PROGRESSIVE
IMPROVEMENT
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Check of the model – Results Extension Segment R1
FISCAL EQUITY
Aosta
The current relevant inequalities in
the system in force would be
overcome, through the correlation of
the new values with the market
values, with an allowance of 20%,
normal for mass valuations.
Pordenone
Milano
Torino
Genova
Firenze
Spoleto
Campobasso
Roma
Sorrento
Increase >300%
Napoli
250%< increase < 300%
VALUE INCREASE
COMPARED WITH
THE CURRENT ONE
200%< increase < 250%
Ca
Selargius
150%< increase < 200%
100%< increase < 150%
increase < 100%
to be verified
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Potenza
Correspondence of the new system with the purposes
and requirements
EASINESS AND
TRASPARENCY
Vu = b0 * y1 b1 * y2 b2* …..
*
yn
bn
where
Vu = (preference price for sm)
VTOT = Vu
*
*
C1 * C2 * …..
Ci = yi bi
*
Cn
area
C1, C2,……., Cn are coefficients that qualify the importance of the characters identified for
that specific real estate unit
(positional characters, building characters, unit characters)
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Correspondence of the new system with the purposes
and requirements
BESIDES FOR THE SYSTEM DYNAMISM
EFFICIENCY
(effectiveness)
ZONE
FOCUS ON BUILDING
SIMPLIFICATION
(CARRIED OUT)
USE OF THE UNIT TECHNICAL
CHARACTERS AVAILABLE IN THE
CADASTRAL DATA BASE
UNIFICATION OF CHARACTERS
COSTS
REDUCTION
PROGRESSIVENESS
The identified methodology for the ordinary real estate units allows to reduce the number of
valuation functions to be elaborated, and the number of building to be surveyed, as well as
restrict the survey of the positional characters of the neighbourhood and the technical
characters of the building, with important reduction of the implementation costs
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Correspondence of the new system with the purposes
and requirements
DYNAMISM
(perfecting)
MUNICIPALITY
PROGRESSIVE
IMPROVEMENT
ZONE
Civil building
BM
+20%
1,5-1,6
A
+10%
Agerage value
Positional
characters of zone
Positional
characters of the
neighbourhood
Changes of the reference values
prevalently owing to a public intervention
UPDATING EX OFFICIO
1,6-2
Technical
characters of
the building
Techncial
characters of
the unit
New buildings and changes of builbing
characters owing to a private
intervention
UPDATING THROUGH OWNER
DECLARATION/STATEMENT
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Real Estate
market
observatory Economic
Urban and
rural territory
data
CREATION
NEW
METHODOLOGIES
New cadastral
values
Technical
data
Cadastral
data base
CREATION
INTEGRATED LAND INFORMATION SYSTEMS
The quality of the new system depends on the number and quality of
information related both to the unit than to the local market performance
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
GENERAL
REVIEW
The supposed
system updating
schedule
GENERAL
REVIEW
INTERIM
UPDATING
(PARTIAL REVIEW)
Cadastral
Values
2–4
years
2–4
years
2–4
years
8 -10 years
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Years
Actors and roles in
Actors and roles
the reform process
AGENZIA DEL
TERRITORIO
MUNICIPALITIES
DEFINITION OF RULES
AND METHODS FOR
IMPLEMENTATION
OPERATING PLAN
VALUATIONS APPROVAL
AND EQUALIZATION
ZONE DETERMINING
(BOUDARIES AND
STARTING VALUES)
ZONE DETERMINING
(BOUNDARIES AND
RUNNING VALUES)
FIRST LEVEL OF THE
FISCAL CASES
DETERMINATION OF
VALUATION FUNCTIONS
PRELIMINARY PHASES
SUPPORT
DATA BASE AND L.I.S.
CREATION (IN
COOPERATION WITH
LOCAL AUTHORITIES)
OPERATING PHASES FOR
THE PROCESS
EXTENSION
ACTIVITY
COORDINATION
L.I.S MANAGMENT
AND UPDATING
PROCESSES QUALITY
AND UNIFORMITY
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
COMMITTEES
FOR TAXABLE REAL ESTATE
Final messages
MESSAGES
TECHNICAL-POLITICAL CHOICE OF THE
FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES AND LINES
IN-DEPT VERIFY OF TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC
FEASIBILITY OF THE ADOPTED METHODOLOGICAL
METHODS
IDENTIFICATION OF AN ADEQUATE LEVEL OF
QUALITY WITH SELF-IMPROVEMENT PROCESSES
DURING THE OPERATION
TECHNICAL DATA
(INTEGRATION AND QUALITY IMPROVEMENT)
ECONOMIC DATA (SURVEY, INTEGRATION, AND
QUALITY IMPROVEMENT)
IDENTIFICATION OF THE COOPERATION MODES
BETWEEN CADASTRAL AGENCY AND LOCAL
AUTHORITIES IN ORDER TO PERFORM AN
EFFICIENT LAND ADMINISTRATION
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006
Thank you
for your kind attention
Antonio de Santis
Agenzia del Territorio
Central Director
for the Technical Development and the International Relations
Antonio de Santis - Santiago de Compostela
October 2006